(
)
Gov. Cuomo’s pledge not to raise taxes — and to let the widely backed “millionaires tax” expire — will face its toughest test yet when the Legislature reconvenes in January amid growing signs of GOP nervousness, insiders here agree.
With the state budget worsening and lawmakers from both parties anxious about their re-election campaigns next year, there’s growing fear in the business community and among Cuomo’s backers that Senate Republicans will go back on their pledge to support the Democratic governor’s effort to reduce the state’s highest-in-the-nation tax burden.
Senate Republicans, who hold a bare one-vote majority, are split between suburbanites from affluent Westchester and Long Island and upstaters, whose constituents often have incomes well below the state average.
“The fear is that the upstate senators, knowing they hardly have anyone in their districts making $1 million or more a year, will cave in to pressure, especially from the unions, to keep the millionaire’s tax and keep spending levels high so they can get past the elections,’’ said a source close to Republican lawmakers.
“The big question out there is: ‘Can Cuomo count on Senate Republicans to help him keep his promise?’ It will all come down to [Senate Majority Leader] Dean Skelos (R-Nassau) and his ability to hold his conference together,’’ the source continued.
Skelos spokeswoman Kelly Cummings insisted yesterday that “Senate Republicans remain opposed to raising taxes,’’ but even many Republicans are skeptical.
Last month, Senate Deputy Majority Leader Tom Libous (R-Binghamton) suggested he would back renewal of the millionaires tax in order to help flood-ravaged victims in the Southern Tier region.
Other Republicans say they fear that an expected multimillion-dollar media blitz from the state’s powerful public-employee unions might panic some upstate senators into backing higher taxes, undermining Skelos’ position.
Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan), whose conference has received millions from public-employee unions, strongly backs renewal of the tax.
***
“Nervousness and angst.’’
That’s how one of state government’s best-known lobbyists described the atmosphere at the Capitol as lawmakers face what is expected to be a series of bitterly contested and highly divisive reelection battles next year in the midst of a bitter and highly divisive presidential campaign.
“Everyone is worried about everything, the [worsening] budget, [legislative and congressional] redistricting, the economy, pension reform, hydrofracking [for natural gas], casino gambling, and who knows that it’s going to be like this time between Cuomo and Silver,’’ said another.
Quipped one legislative insider, “Cuomo had a honeymoon with the Legislature in his first year, but now he has to worry about winding up facing a bitter divorce.’’
***
Notwithstanding Cuomo’s suggestions to the contrary, there’s no chance lawmakers will be called back to the Capitol before the end of the year to deal with the worsening fiscal problems.
Cuomo suggested earlier in the month that the Legislature’s return might be needed for an agreement on reducing current-year spending because of a widening projected deficit.
But legislative leaders have told Cuomo that they’re not interested in returning before the start of the new legislative session in January, and, as a result, the governor has agreed not to call them back.