Long, long ago, in a fantasy world far, far away, tight ends were fantasy football’s version of baseball’s catcher: There weren’t enough quality options to make it a productive position on most teams, but you had to draft one because the rules required it.
Now, a good tight end can be like an additional wide receiver. So with more teams emphasizing the passing game and more tight ends benefiting from the air-attack evolution, it makes sense to get a good one early, right?
Not so fast.
Yes, Fantasy Insanity recognizes the Saints’ Jimmy Graham is a full step ahead of all tight ends. Sure, the Broncos’ Julius Thomas should score well on the league’s most prolific offense. Of course, the 49ers’ Vernon Davis is coming off a career year. But no, we’re not going to draft any of them at the point in the draft when they normally are picked.
We have confidence that one or more of the later options can break out this year, narrowing the scoring gap on the elite group, and they can be had much deeper in the draft. That frees you up to collect more impact receivers and running backs early.
This theory is supported by our DVQ numbers. The Draft Value Quotient rates players based on projected points and average draft position, and how those forecasts relate to each player by position. The P1E (Pick-1 Equation) is the value of each player if they were picked No. 1 overall, which illustrates a straight list of the Madman’s rankings.
Here is the deluxe edition of the Insanity Insider top-25 tight ends rankings, with updated DVQs, listed in order of P1E (average DVQ for projected starting TE is 2.36):
1. Jimmy Graham, Saints
P1E: 1.98, PPT: 191, ADP: 10.72, DVQ: 2.33
Best of bunch, but DVQ doesn’t compare favorably to other positions at point in draft when Graham is normally taken.
2. Julius Thomas, Broncos
P1E: 1.30, PPT: 155, ADP: 46.91, DVQ: 1.99
Best of rest, but ADP still is too high.
3. Vernon Davis, 49ers
P1E: 1.14, PPT: 145, ADP: 46.91, DVQ: 2.25
Tied career high with 13 TDs last season. Not likely to repeat.
4. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
P1E: 1.05, PPT: 139, ADP: 34.39, DVQ: 1.76
If he can stay on field, could return to elite status. But if a frog had wings … ADP way too high to justify risk factor.
5. Jordan Cameron, Browns
P1E: 0.97, PPT: 134, ADP: 68.67, DVQ: 2.49
One of Madman’s favorites. Ranking solidified by wideout Josh Gordon’s upheld ban.
6. Greg Olsen, Panthers
P1E: 0.75, PPT: 118, ADP: 88.85, DVQ: 2.38
Another of Madman’s primary TE targets.
7. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
P1E: 0.69, PPT: 113, ADP: 97.13, DVQ: 2.37
Additional solid middle-round target.
8. Jason Witten, Cowboys
P1E: 0.68, PPT: 112, ADP: 68.48, DVQ: 1.33
Production has been sliding. Worry about QB Tony Romo’s back. Like later options better.
9. Jordan Reed, Redskins
P1E: 0.66, PPT: 110, ADP: 113.83, DVQ: 2.61
Like Pitta, coming off injury season, but should have significant role in Redskins offense.
10. Ladarius Green, Chargers
P1E: 0.62, PPT: 107, ADP: 155.70, DVQ: 3.47
Anticipate him overtaking Antonio Gates as primary TE option for Chargers. Our favorite TE value pick — backup who could perform like starter.
11. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
P1E: 0.56, PPT: 102, ADP: 111.20, DVQ: 2.20
Like Randolph, but his ADP is a little high for our liking. If he slips, snag him.
12. Charles Clay, Dolphins
P1E: 0.55, PPT: 101, ADP: 140.85, DVQ: 2.76
A favorite red zone target of QB Ryan Tannehill. Won’t get a lot of yards, but should tally solid number of TDs.
13. Zach Ertz, Eagles
P1E: 0.53, PPT: 99, ADP: 152.52, DVQ: 2.90
High upside, particularly this late in the draft. Our favorite value pick outside of Green.
14. Martellus Bennett, Bears
P1E: 0.49, PPT: 95, ADP: 134.70, DVQ: 2.33
Fairly safe option late in the draft.
15. Coby Fleener, Colts
P1E: 0.49, PPT: 91, ADP: 196.67, DVQ: 3.33
Expecting Fleener to post strongest season to date. Significant upside, particularly in relation to draft position.
16. Delanie Walker, Titans
P1E: 0.42, PPT: 88, ADP: 175.39, DVQ: 2.70
Surrender pick: Not much better at this point, so I might as well take this guy.
17. Heath Miller, Steelers
P1E: 0.36, PPT: 82, 207.07, ADP: DVQ: 2.89
See: No. 16, Delanie Walker.
18. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
P1E: 0.36, PPT: 81, ADP: 215.74, DVQ: 2.98
Best of the late round/undrafted sleeper candidates.
19. Eric Ebron, Lions
P1E: 0.35, PPT: 80, ADP: 164.91, DVQ: 2.08
Overvalued. Lots of guys competing with him for targets.
20. Tyler Eifert, Bengals
P1E: 0.35, PPT: 80, ADP: 195.5, DVQ: 2.56
Was expecting him to take significant step last year, but it didn’t happen.
21. Jared Cook, Rams
P1E: 0.35, PPT: 80, ADP: 210.89, DVQ: 2.82
Went belly-up with Cook last season. This year, with backup QB, we’re not at all excited.
22. Antonio Gates, Chargers
P1E: 0.30, PPT: 75, ADP: 164.93, DVQ: 1.82
Noticeably slower and less agile in each of recent seasons.
23. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers
P1E: 0.29, PPT: 73, ADP: 216.09, DVQ: 2.42
Youngster could surprise on what we think will be rejuvenated Bucs team.
24. Jace Amaro, Jets
P1E: 0.28, PPT: 72, ADP: 215.13, DVQ: 2.34
Problems with drops in camp, but if he can learn to hang onto ball, could be a find.
25. Garrett Graham, Texans
P1E: 0.25, PPT: 77, ADP: 220, DVQ: 2.12
Owen Daniels is gone. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick no better or worse than former QB Matt Schaub.