BALTIMORE — With 44 games to go in this stressful season, the Yankees own an identical record (61-57) to their immediate predecessors at this precise juncture. The 2013 Yankees went a respectable 24-20 from this point forward, yet as we know, that proved not nearly well enough to reach October.
So with Tuesday night’s rainout giving the Yankees a night to recollect themselves, to shake off their brutal, 11-3 loss to the Orioles Monday night at Camden Yards, let’s figure out how much better the Yankees need to do this time in their final 44 games to avoid a second straight early trip home.
If the Yankees want to reasonably ensure a playoff berth, the number they should post on their clubhouse wall is 89 wins. Which would mean 28-16, a .636 winning percentage, the rest of the way.
That isn’t realistic in any mathematical, number-crunching sense. But strange things can happen in small sample sizes, whether we’re discussing baseball, Presidential elections or “Police Academy” movies. The Yankees must strive for strangeness.
How did I come up with 89? With the help of some calculations from FanGraphs.com, Post colleague Howie “Hoops” Kussoy and a look at recent history.
Fangraphs, through its formulas and the teams’ remaining schedules, pegs the Yankees to win 82.9 games, or 83. That would place them well behind the pack. The Orioles are on pace to capture the American League East with an expected 90 wins, while if the projections came to life, the AL wild cards would be the Angels (93) and the Royals (87), with the Tigers, who began Tuesday’s action trailing Kansas City by a half-game in the AL Central, tabbed to capture their division. The odds also favor the Mariners (86) and the Blue Jays (85) to finish ahead of the Yankees.
While the Orioles have rolled to the biggest lead of any division’s penthouse occupant — they topped the Blue Jays by six games entering Toronto’s late game at Seattle — they did suffer a potentially big hit Monday night when Manny Machado departed with what looked like a serious right knee injury. We’ll find out Wednesday whether Baltimore will place Machado on the disabled list. So maybe 89 wins would wind up winning the AL East.
Eighty-nine has a far better chance of getting the second wild card, though. Kussoy examined all of the contenders’ remaining schedules and divided them into games against teams .500 or better and games against sub-.500 clubs, as well as home and road. With the exception of the Angels, Kansas City owns the easiest road to the playoffs, as 19 of its remaining 45 games (counting Tuesday) come against teams that are .500 or better, while it’s hardest for Detroit and Seattle, with 25 such games each. The Mariners also have a bad home-road split, with just 17 home games remaining and 27 on the road.
Using Kansas City’s projected 87 wins as the over-under line, let’s jack it up to 88 with the idea that you’d need to top the Royals. And then let’s raise it to 89, because one or more teams figure to exceed expectations just as others will fall short. In the first two years of the double wild-card format, the AL’s final entry has recorded 93 wins in 2012 (Baltimore) and then 92 in 2013 (the Rays went 91-71 and then prevailed in a play-in game against Texas). Eighty-nine represents a significant drop-off, yet I think it represents a realistic over-under line for the second wild card.
In order for the Yankees to win 28 more games, they probably require Wednesday night’s starter Michael Pineda to pitch like he did in his first three starts this season, and maybe even Masahiro Tanaka to help in September. Brandon McCarthy has to maintain his hot start, and new position players Stephen Drew, Chase Headley and Martin Prado must contribute more offensively. And Adam Warren should shake off fatigue or whatever is plaguing him and help make the bullpen dominant once again. Plus like 10 other positive developments.
It won’t be easy, and maybe it won’t be enough, anyway. Yet if the Yankees want to set a high bar for themselves that isn’t totally impossible to see, they should think 89.