When Joe Torre managed the Yankees he loathed hearing about hypotheticals regarding his team and whoever it was chasing in the AL East. Whether it was at the quarter pole, halfway point, the All-Star break or a month to go in the season, Torre preferred the focus be on the day at hand.
Yet numbers are impossible to ignore, and they don’t paint a pretty picture for the Yankees across the remaining 68 games.
With the Orioles atop the AL East with a 52-42 record, the Yankees are five games back in third place entering Friday night’s game against the Reds at Yankee Stadium. They are 3 ½ games behind the Robinson Cano-led Mariners for the second AL wild-card spot and trail the Angels by five lengths for the first wild-card ticket. Finally, they are a game back of the second-place Blue Jays in the AL East.
So, and this thinking bugged Torre, if the Orioles play .500 (34-34) the rest of the way, the Yankees would need to go 39-29 the rest of the way to tie the Birds. They haven’t been 10 over this season; the high-water mark being 39-33 on June 20.
Can a team with a decimated rotation that houses neophytes Shane Greene and Chase Whitley and is led by Hiroki Kuroda, a 39-year-old with a 6-6 ledger in 19 starts, turn a 47-47 record into a 39-29 mark? Can a lineup that lacks big muscles provide enough runs to cover a suspect rotation?
Will Masahiro Tanaka return from a tear in the right ulnar collateral ligament late next month or is he headed for Tommy John surgery? Can general manager Brian Cashman upgrade the rotation and/or lineup through a trade before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline?
And even if the Yankees can reach 10 games over the break-even mark, there is no guarantee the Orioles won’t play better than .500 ball the rest of the way.
David Robertson isn’t looking at the math and “what if’’ scenarios. Instead, the closer believes the Yankees have enough to not only get into the postseason but advance.
“We have had some big injuries, but we still have enough talent in my opinion to go deep into the playoffs,’’ Robertson said. “We need to get everything firing. We will have a lot of opportunities to play the AL East.’’
Robertson’s assessment of the talent level currently in pinstripes is debatable, but he is correct about the schedule being dominated by AL East opponents.
Of the remaining 68 games, 38 are against AL East clubs who the Yankees are a combined 18-20 against. Of the 26 games in September, the only three not against the AL East are with the Royals.
They are 6-3 against the Blue Jays, 6-4 versus the Red Sox, 3-6 against the Orioles and 3-7 against the Rays.
Possibly working in the Yankees’ favor are seven games against the lowly Rangers and three each against the morbid Astros and White Sox. But remember the Astros opened the season by winning two of three from the Yankees, who started CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Kuroda. And the best the Yankees could do against the White Sox was a split of a four-game series in which the Yankees started David Phelps, Kuroda, the since-departed Vidal Nuno and Tanaka.
The fascination with numbers is easy: You can do anything you want with them. However, they paint a real picture and one that doesn’t support those who believe the Yankees will extend their season beyond Sept. 28 in Boston.