Rep. Charlie Rangel, a Korean War veteran, has first-hand knowledge of a broken army in retreat. And in the early weeks of his 22nd re-election campaign, Rangel’s forces appeared to be overwhelmed and on the run.
Joe Wiscovitch, senior political strategist for Rangel’s challenger, boasted that state Sen. Adriano Espaillat would win the Democratic primary on June 24 by 1,400 votes. That would be an amazing 2,700 vote turnaround from his defeat in 2012.
Pundits proclaimed that the rising tide of demographics and generational change would overwhelm Rangel.
The congressman’s once-reliable union allies were lining up behind Espaillat and saying that Rangel had stayed at the rodeo too long. Each day, the growing political winds seemed to fill Espaillat’s sails.
Although weakened by his censure in 2010 for financial misconduct and the loss of his rank on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, Rangel battles for a 23rd term in Congress. He has vowed to win this race and make it his last hurrah.
His confidence was buoyed by a Siena/NY1 poll released last month. The poll had Rangel up 41 percent to 32 percent over his younger rival, with 15 percent undecided.
Rangel leads among blacks, while Espaillat leads among Hispanics. Indeed, many pundits reduce this contest to a battle between the two competing ethnic groups.
But truth be told, both men are of Hispanic heritage. Rangel’s father was Puerto Rican, his mother African-American.
It’s rather ironic that a Hispanic congressman, who identified for decades as black, is being challenged by a Dominican-identifying politician.
And it’s more ironic that the challenger’s homeland is seeking the mass deportation of black Dominicans to Haiti — with Espaillat’s evident support.
Espaillat has made his Dominican heritage and past status as an immigration scofflaw central to his appeal to voters in the Latino-heavy district.
Political blogger Seth Barron recently called Espaillat “grotesque” for taking time out from campaigning to visit the Dominican Republic to praise a new law that’s de facto anti-immigrant.
A DR law adopted last September stripped 210,000 Dominicans of Haitian descent of their DR citizenship. Under global condemnation, the country last month restored the rights of just 25,000 people. This month, Espaillat traveled to the DR to praise that faulty “fix” as putting a “human face” on the earlier measure.
Ironies and identity politics aside, the real subtext concerns the political future of ambitious elected officials on both banks of the Harlem River, not just in NY-13.
Politics is really about power. Who has it? Who benefits? Who profits? It’s that simple.
City Comptroller Scott Stringer, Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. and Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito are Espaillat supporters. All have citywide ambitions, and Dominican voters are a growing constituency.
In Rangel’s camp are Rep. Jose Serrano, Assemblyman Keith Wright and Councilmember Inez Dickens — all standing by an old ally — as well as a onetime rival, Adam Powell IV, who still has designs on the seat his father held for 26 years.
Political consultant Hank Sheinkopf agrees that the race hinges on longterm alliances and future political power, not ethnicity.
Labor unions, lobbyists and other special interests are making the same calculations. These days it’s no longer about betting on the right horse, it’s about allying with the pols they’ll be seeking favors from later.
So, who wins?
New York City primaries are determined by a tiny corps of voters and volunteers fueled by loyalty, ethnic identity, passion, ideology and a sense of history.
“Whoever turns out the greatest number of voters wins,” says Sheinkopf.
In the words of one operative, “A lot of people owe Charlie Rangel a lot of favors, and I wouldn’t count him out.”
Perhaps June 24 will see the end of the Rangel era — if not the end of Harlem as a black political power base in New York. But Rangel and the Harlem political establishment won’t give up without a fight.
Rangel says he hasn’t had a bad day since he got home from Korea, and he doesn’t expect to have one come June 24.