Two of the biggest players expected to move before the July 31 trade deadline — Jeff Samardzija and Huston Street — have already been dealt, underscoring the go-for-it fervor atop the AL West.
The A’s (Samardzija and Jason Hammel) and the Angels (Street, Joe Thatcher and Jason Grilli) are 1-2 for the majors’ best record. Yet, they proactively addressed their biggest concerns (rotation depth for the A’s, bullpen quality/quantity for the Angels) while demonstrating how gung ho they are to win the AL West — and more.
If the A’s are willing to give up their best prospect (Addison Russell) for Samardzija/Hammel and the Angels are willing to ransack a thin system to secure Street, what will other contenders do in what feels like a wide-open race for a parade?
This, in theory, should benefit sellers, in general, and the Rays, in particular, since they hold the prime piece in the market in David Price. But the pressure is not only on interested clubs such as the Cardinals, Dodgers and Mariners.
It also is on the Rays to decide who they are and what they should do.
Six weeks ago this was a no-brainer. The Rays were 18 games under .500 on June 10, 15 games out of first and they were the majors’ lone club with a sub-.400 winning percentage (.364). Injury and underperformance had left perhaps the smallest of small-market teams in obvious sell mode.
But a funny thing happened on the way to July 31: The Rays have gone 23-11 since (through Sunday), which put them between the Angels (23-10) and A’s (22-11) for the best record in that time frame. Tampa cut its AL East deficit exactly in half to 7 ¹/₂ games. And many of the key Rays (including Price) remain from the club that erased a nine-game deficit on Sept. 1 to overtake the Red Sox for the 2011 AL wild card.
And, keep in mind, this season began with a team-record payroll and Tampa Bay’s front office believing it had assembled its best team yet. It is possible the Rays are honoring that projection.
So, trading Price (and probably Ben Zobrist and a few others, as well) and essentially surrendering is not appetizing. Especially because Tampa Bay sees the vulnerability within the AL East. Baltimore is in first place, but its first 26 games after the break are against .500-or-better clubs, including a 10-game jaunt (in which the Orioles currently are 1-2) out West against the A’s, Angels and Mariners.
The Yankees and Blue Jays were tied for second — 4 ¹/₂ games in front of the Rays — and hardly have the look of teams ready to bury the Rays. Tampa also was just six games back in the wild card.
Conversely, even with their strong run, the Rays were still six games under .500 (47-53), tied with the Red Sox for last place. Perhaps, the three-game series against Boston in St. Petersburg this weekend will provide the impetus for one of these clubs to make a sustained charge.
What I hear most from executives is Tampa is following the same two-track plan from the offseason when it built up by retaining James Loney and David DeJesus and buying Grant Balfour, yet stayed willing to deal Price if the right offer manifested. Thus, the Rays will be overwhelmed in a trade or simply wait until the offseason to deal Price. Keep in mind the Rays already have turned down overtures from the A’s that included Russell. So you get the idea that a very good return will not be enough.
“Like the offseason, they budgeted to keep him and go for it and will do that or they will trade him if they get a knockout deal,” one AL executive said. “Nothing has changed. This is an organization that always believes in staying flexible.”
The Rays know they can’t keep Price long term, probably not even for 2015 when his salary is likely to climb from $14 million this year to $20 million-ish. They know, at some point, he must be a key vehicle in sustaining their run of excellence by helping them obtain a pool of controllable young players, and the best package is probably available now when a team can have Price for two pennant races rather than the offseason when a team could just decide to buy a free agent such as Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields rather than deal prospects and pay Price.
“I think they take it down to the [July 31] wire,” a special assistant to a general manager said. “That allows them to make sure they know who they are while making a couple of teams sweat to the end that one of their competitors are going to get him. For example, if the Dodgers think St. Louis will get him and have a clearer path to the NL title, does that make the Dodgers blink and give up more? It wouldn’t surprise me if Price actually ends up a July 31 decision.”
Ike may have trouble getting a job
The question is no longer whether the Mets made the right decision with Lucas Duda over Ike Davis, but whether Davis’ game has deteriorated so much that he will even get a major league contract for next year or will have to take a minor league deal for some club (essentially become a latter-day Mike Jacobs). In fact, the Pirates might have to think about doing better than Davis as the lefty part of their first-base platoon.
There were 27 first basemen with at least 250 plate appearances and Davis’ .343 slugging percentage was the worst (Nick Swisher, .348, was second). Davis had one extra-base hit (a double) in his last 18 games (through Sunday) and had not homered since June 9 (77 at-bats).
There’s very little power left
Talk to a personnel head and at some point you will hear about the dearth of righty power. But, to some degree, I wonder if that is something executives have become conditioned to say. Because lefty power seems to be more of an issue right now.
Seven of the top 10 in homers (Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki) are righties, two are lefties (Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Moss) and one is a switch-hitter (Victor Martinez).
In fact, if you stretch it to all players with at least 17 homers through the weekend (a total of 23), there was just one other lefty (David Ortiz) and one switch-hitter (Mark Teixeira). Thus, just three of the top 23 are full-time lefties (13 percent).
Just to use 30 homers as a barometer, that total has been reached 113 times in the past five years and 43 have been by lefties (38.1 percent).
The trend even reached the Home Run Derby where just one of the 10 competitors (Justin Morneau) was a lefty.
I am willing to test drive a theory on why lefties are hitting fewer homers: They used to feast on sub-par righty middle and set-up relief. Now, those guys are more often mid-90s-throwing beasts with high-end secondary pitches. The lefty hitter versus righty pitcher slugging percentage is .394. That is 16 points lower than last year, which already was the lowest since 1993.