In a one-week period, the Yankees learned CC Sabathia might need a micro-fracture knee surgery that leaves his career in peril, and Masahiro Tanaka might require Tommy John surgery that would cost him the rest of this season and, at least, most of next year.
Those revelations were most devastating to the Yankees, of course. But it also is hurting Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.
They are the starters who project to make the biggest score in free agency this offseason. And it is possible no amount of cautionary data will scare off all 30 teams. It never has. One or two or four or 10 organizations will feel like they are just an ace away and go deep into nine figures to land Scherzer or Lester. Would you put it even beyond the Yanks jumping right back into this pool if Sabathia and Tanaka are not available in 2015?
But it does feel like an interesting moment. Perhaps the biggest storyline of the first half of the 2014 season is the epidemic of Tommy John surgeries. There is a growing pessimism when it comes to pitchers that it is when, not if, they will need the surgical procedure.
Combine that with just how badly almost all the biggest deals for starters have gone. Clayton Kershaw is just in Season One of his pitching-record seven-year, $215 million deal. He has been great — he has both a no-hitter and a streak of 41 consecutive scoreless innings this year. He also already has missed a month this year with an upper-back injury. Get back to us in Year Three or Five.
Scherzer’s Tigers teammate, Justin Verlander ($180 million) in Year Two of the second-largest pact ever given a pitcher has a 4.84 ERA and strong signs of erosion. Tanaka ($175 million when you combine his salary and posting fee) is the tied for the third-largest pitching investment. Sabathia ($161 million) is fifth. Johan Santana ($137.5 million) is eighth. Matt Cain (ninth at $127.5 million) is in a Verlander-ish swoon in Season Three of his six-year deal. You get the idea.
Scherzer and Lester bet on themselves this year and — without the growing worries — would be obvious winners of the bet. Scherzer, the defending AL Cy Young winner, is 11-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 146 strikeouts, second in the majors. Lester was 9-7 with a 2.65 ERA, sixth in the AL.
Late in spring training, Scherzer turned down Detroit’s six-year, $144 million proposal. In the past, that gamble would have looked great. And — again — it still might. I never would put it beyond agent Scott Boras turning Scherzer into the second $200 million pitcher.
But you do have to wonder, with all the Tommy John surgeries and long-term failures, if Scherzer will exceed the $144 million and by how much to have made the risk worth it. He is the kind of power pitcher every team wants, and the kind of power pitcher with an already heavy workload that is going to scare every team thinking of rewarding him big time.
The Red Sox, reacting to the bad long-term history — including a bunch that have bitten them — have been viewed as low-balling Lester, offering (sources say) deals that were four years at $70 million or five at $80 million — well below Lester’s market value, especially as he is having arguably his best season. With this failed season after a championship, will Boston blink and up its bid significantly? Or will Lester, who has said he would take some discount to stay, hope the old rules apply to a top pitcher already 30 years old and that he will be thrown Sabathia-esque money?
Those two highlight what is setting up as a fascinating free-agent class. Consider:
The biogenesis alumni: Baltimore’s Nelson Cruz is an All-Star, Toronto’s Melky Cabrera got consideration. Besides his drug association, Cruz’s market was hurt last year by having a qualifying offer tied to him, and probably will again this year. Can they do anything in the second half to make interested teams believe in a “clean” version of them?
The late signers: Boras clients Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales waited to assure that, by rule, they could not be made the qualifying offer again this offseason and not be tied to draft-pick compensation. Drew re-signed with Boston in late May and was hitting .131 in his first 25 games. Morales signed with Minnesota in early June and was hitting .230 with one homer in his first 29 games. The duo was hoping to lose money in the short term to recoup in the long term, but their play this season is not helping. They have a second half to change that.
Ervin Santana signed late in spring with Atlanta, so he again can be offered the qualifying offer, but was pitching OK at 7-6 with a 4.01 ERA.
The depressing hitter’s market: One NL general manager on trying to solve offensive issues in the coming free-agent market: “Good luck with that.”
The Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez was supposed to be the prize. But midway through this season his offense is down from last year, his health problematic and his defense so bad that it is hard to sell him as a long-term shortstop. None of the other top shortstops — Baltimore’s J.J. Hardy (his power has vanished), Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera or Oakland’s Jed Lowrie — is having the kind of starry season that makes the Yanks believe they have located the heir to Derek Jeter.
San Diego’s Chase Headley never again has looked like the near-MVP of 2012. Toronto’s Colby Rasmus no longer starts against lefties. Detroit’s Victor Martinez is having his best year, but he turns 36 in the offseason.
Is there relief for closers? Teams near universally have gotten away from giving lavish long-term deals to late-game relievers because of the volatility and fragility associated with the job. David Robertson and Koji Uehara have been consistently excellent. Yet, the most intriguing figure could be Detroit’s Joba Chamberlain. He took a one-year, $2.5 million deal with Detroit to try to reconstruct value, and he has been very good as the Tigers’ main set-up man. If this continues, will any club believe enough to invest in the righty long term and even hand him the closer keys?