The Yankees need to acquire a starting pitcher.
Sure, they could make the playoffs as constituted based on the mediocrity of the AL East combined with the superiority of Masahiro Tanaka and their late-game bullpen. But it is a dangerous strategy because the Yankees feel they are one more rotation injury or significant dip in production away from being out of counter-punches.
Indications are they cannot go to the top of the available-starter food chain. Tampa almost certainly would not trade David Price within the AL East. And outside executives say the Cubs must obtain a close-to-the-majors, high-end starting pitcher as the key piece of a trade for Jeff Samardzija and — without involving a third team — the Yanks cannot provide that element.
The perception of the Yankees farm system is better than the past two seasons, but it still lacks knocking-on-the-door impact players. A significant trade probably would have to be built around Gary Sanchez or John Ryan Murphy.
Therefore, unless someone such as Cincinnati’s Mat Latos or San Diego’s Andrew Cashner becomes available, the Yankees might have to shoot lower for pitchers such as the White Sox’s John Danks, the Cubs’ Jason Hammel or the Padres’ Ian Kennedy.
While the identity remains unknown, the need is obvious. One AL executive said: “Right now, they are dodging bullets. They have a lot of five- and six-inning guys, and they are about to negate the effectiveness of [Dellin] Betances and [Adam] Warren by leaning on them too much. They need to get on the board by adding a starter. Heck, I think they need two.”
Here is why there is concern:
- Tanaka is a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young. But is he really going to have a hiccup-free season in his first year starting mostly every fifth day? What will the strain of second-half innings and the responsibility of having to win pretty much all of his starts evoke? The Yankees are in a tricky spot: Having to protect a long-term investment vs. having to push their one sure-thing starter.
- Hiroki Kuroda is 39 and his last start was instructive — he dominated for five innings against Baltimore, but as his pitch count reached about 90, his stuff waned. He is a good six-inning starter whom the Yanks will remember collapsed late last season as age plus workload equaled problems.
- CC Sabathia is still at least a month away. Assume he returns shortly after the All-Star break — then what? He will have his competitiveness and sense of responsibility. But does the healing time for his surgically repaired knee help him freshen his arm? If not, then we should recall he left as a pitcher without enough weapons. Is he ready to recreate himself — commit to a cutter, for example, because he so badly needs a pitch to get in on righty hitters? If he returns throwing more bite-less sliders and tepid fastballs, then what would the Yankees have?
- Michael Pineda (lat) cannot even get to the point of playing catch. Those three early terrific starts prior to his pine-tar debacle at Fenway feel like something so long ago that Orlando Hernandez was a teammate. He has the same number of starts (four) as Ivan Nova and — like Nova — he might not make another one this year. The Yanks certainly cannot make plans around him.
- Chase Whitley is offering an Aaron Small-sample size of excellence. It is possible that developing two breaking balls — a cutter and slider — and adding some velocity to complement his always excellent changeup has turned Whitley from mild relief prospect to rotation savior. But even if that is true, Whitley’s career minor league-high in innings is 91. How much can the Yankees put on his arm this season?
- David Phelps is a jack-of-all-trades asset. He is smart, competitive, makes the most of his stuff. But he doesn’t miss bats much, making him dependent on a bad Yankees defense. If he fills in for 10 starts in a year, perfect. Asking much more is, well, asking too much.
- Vidal Nuno was — in the Yanks’ greatest hopes — Mark Buehrle lite. But Buerhle maximizes marginal stuff with precision and savvy, and Nuno just doesn’t have enough of either. He is home-run-susceptible — serving up 10 in 33 home innings. His 5.88 ERA is the third-worst in the majors (minimum 60 innings). The Yanks are essentially surrendering a game every five days.
- Adam Warren could replace Nuno. But that would be baseball’s version of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Aside from Tanaka, the pitching strength of the Yankees is Warren, Betances and David Robertson. Warren would just become another starter who needs a lot of relief to win, and he wouldn’t have himself to help. But Warren is the next choice. There is no other obvious candidate at Triple-A. It is why the Yankees must be proactive in finding a starter before a crisis they can see approaching arrives.
If you think the Yankees rely on age too much, you should check out the Phillies. In fact, the most common theory for what would undermine Philadelphia this season was its dependence on older players, especially in the everyday lineup, at a time (sterner drug testing) when that has become a bad idea.
It still feels like a bad idea, but the Phillies lineup has been most undermined by Domonic Brown and Ben Revere, both 26. For the most part, the Phillies’ older core has stayed healthy and productive. Consider just eight NL players 34 or older are even qualified for the batting title and five are Phillies:
Marlon Byrd, 37 (12 HRs, 43 RBIs), Chase Utley, 35 (24 2Bs, .823 OPS), Carlos Ruiz, 35 (.761 OPS), Jimmy Rollins, 35 (eight HRs, 11 SBs), and Ryan Howard, 34 (14 HRs, 50 RBIs). Both Utley and Rollins have stumbled recently even as the Phillies had won nine of 12 to get back at least to the edge of contention. And if Philadelphia does go into sell-off mode, each of these players has problematic contracts combined with age to make them difficult to move.
When Omar Minaya was fired as the Mets GM after the 2010 season, the finalists to replace him were Sandy Alderson, who got the job, and Josh Byrnes, who a year later was named the Padres GM.
Byrnes was fired Sunday with the Padres owning the NL’s second-worst record. A triumvirate of executives was made the interim GM. That trio included San Diego’s senior VP of baseball operations.
That would be Minaya, whose experience as a GM and with personnel makes him a key figure in what San Diego will do at the trade deadline, unless a new GM is hired in a hurry.
The Padres could consider moving ace Andrew Cashner, closer Huston Street and third baseman Chase Headley, who recently had an epidural for a herniated disk.