This first-round series between original Patrick Division rivals — who, bet you didn’t know this, played a six-game season series in 1969-70, with every match ending in a tie — will be decided by goaltending, discipline, special teams … and the way the games are officiated.
The Rangers were shorthanded only 232 times during the course of the season, second-fewest in the NHL to San Jose’s 219. The Flyers, conversely, were short 316 times, second-most in the league, exceeded only by Ottawa’s 320.
Somehow, though, the Flyers finished with the league’s fourth-most five-on-four power-play time while the Blueshirts were 20th in that category.
If the refs are going to call a tit-for-tat series in which matching minors are the order of the day, the Rangers will essentially start from behind, for that approach would surely benefit an emboldened Philadelphia team.
Here are the matchups:
Goaltending
Henrik Lundqvist, who enters the playoffs in peak form, loves playing against and in Philadelphia, with all that entails. He’s a career 27-13-3 against the Flyers. Lundqvist has been outstanding over the second half tracking the puck, battling through traffic, and on second (and, yikes, third) chances around the net, all necessary attributes against a team that crashes the crease. Lundqvist has been oddly unsuccessful against breakaways all season, though he did deny Carolina’s Alexander Semin last Tuesday at the Garden in the last one he faced during the season. If Lundqvist should go down, the unflappable Cam Talbot, who surrendered two goals or fewer in 16 of his 19 starts, will be prepared to take over.
Steve Mason, recuperating from what is being called an “upper body injury” believed to be a concussion that he sustained in a goalmouth collision last week, won’t be ready for Thursday’s opener. Very flappable backup Ray Emery will become the fifth different goaltender in the Flyers’ last five playoff appearances to start a tournament opener. Mason has become a reliable, patient, technically sound goaltender in Philadelphia. Emery is prone to yielding a softie or two. The Rangers will likely fire shots from all angles.
Edge: Rangers
Defense
The Blueshirts’ Blue Line Big Three of Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi and Marc Staal comprises the heart of the team and should get heavy minutes. If McDonagh’s left shoulder is impaired and the team MVP is therefore diminished, the Rangers will have a problem. Anton Stralman, Staal’s partner, finished well. Coach Alain Vigneault will be careful on matchups regarding the third pair of John Moore and Kevin Klein/Raphael Diaz.
The Rangers need to get the puck in behind the Flyers’ defense and pressure a pedestrian group featuring a couple of former Islanders in Mark Streit and Andrew McDonald, plus the usual cast of characters in Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, Nicklas Grossmann and Luke Schenn, to navigate the full 200 feet up the ice.
Edge: Rangers
Offense
Claude Giroux, who overcame a frightful start, is the most talented forward in the series; creative, strong on the rush and below the circles, able to pick a defense apart if given time and space. Wayne Simmonds, who can be a nasty one, will be on a mission to get in Lundqvist’s kitchen at every opportunity. Jakub Voracek and Scott Hartnell — another sneaky one — will lurk. The Flyers won’t do much fancy stuff; it’s north-south, get to the net and create havoc. Vincent Lecavalier could be a wild card.
Edge: Flyers
Specialty teams
The Rangers went 7-for-62 on the power play in the 20 games following the trade deadline, oftentimes dysfunctional. Indeed, the Blueshirts scored exactly as many goals shorthanded as they did with the man advantage following the March 7 witching hour. The Blueshirts, who utilize all three first-line forwards on the kill, finished third in the league at PK efficiency at 85.3 percent.
Simmonds was third in the league with 15 PPGs, essentially all of them coming from around the net. Timonen and Streit make for a dangerous duo on the points, with Giroux, Hartnell and Voracek all quite capable up front. Philadelphia was seventh on the PK at 84.8 percent.
Edge: Flyers
Coaching
Alain Vigneault is reputed not to change much from the regular season to the playoffs. After guiding Vancouver to a 3-2 lead over the Bruins in the 2011 Finals, his Canucks lost 10 of their next 11 playoff matches before his dismissal following last year’s sweep by the Sharks.
Craig Berube, a no-nonsense guy behind the bench who settled things after replacing Peter Laviolette following an 0-3 getaway, is entering his first playoffs as a head coach.
Edge: Even
Prediction
As long as the Blueshirts maintain their cool, discipline and McDonagh is at reasonably full strength, and the officials call the rule book, the club should be able to exploit their advantage in net and on the back end.
RANGERS IN 5