Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Stats say Joe DiMaggio’s record tougher to reach now

Colorado’s Nolan Arenado got halfway to Joe DiMaggio, and that made me wonder this: In an age when it might be harder to get a hit than ever, would there be a total short of 56 games that would be as impressive as the Yankee Clipper’s hit streak?

Let’s do this up front before DiMaggio lovers or devotees of “how the game used to be, when men were men” begin assaulting my email inbox with hate mail: DiMaggio is one of the greatest players of all-time, his streak is historic and this — in no way — is meant to disparage DiMaggio, his record or legacy.

This merely is about trying to determine, in this hard-to-get-hits forum, what a streak would have to be in 2014 that would equate to 56 straight in 1941.

Some thoughts: The AL batting average in 1941 (the year of DiMaggio’s streak) was .266 (there were no interleague games then, so he never faced the NL). The major league average that year was .262. It is .250 now, .247 in the NL, where Arenado plays. Overall, teams are averaging 8.56 hits per game, the lowest since 1972, the year before the AL went to the DH. Based on this data, the head of one team’s analytics department said a 51-game hitting streak today would equal 56 games in DiMaggio’s time.

An individual player may gain benefits, as Arenado does, playing home games in a hitter’s paradise such as Coors Field. But, in general, consider DiMaggio never faced computer-generated shifts designed specifically to put fielders where he hit the ball most often. Also, in 1941, he never faced a player of color or from Asia, or hit into improved gloves and infields manicured to near perfection to provide true hops.

Perhaps most important, DiMaggio was a half century away from the onset of match-up relief. These days just about every bullpen features multiple components who throw in the mid-to-high 90s, many of whom also throw split-finger fastballs that were not deployed in DiMaggio’s day.

Eight times during DiMaggio’s streak he did not get his first hit until the seventh inning or later in his fourth plate appearance against the starting pitcher — so in one-seventh of the games during his streak, he got his first hit against a theoretically tiring pitcher whom DiMaggio already had seen three previous times.

During his 28-game hitting streak, Arenado faced a fourth plate appearance against a starter just twice, getting his first hit of that game on one of those occasions (vs. Matt Cain on April 23). The other four times he extended the streak from the seventh inning on, it was against a reliever. DiMaggio extended his hitting streak against a reliever three times, but, again, relievers then were not specialists — they mostly were failed starters consigned to the next step before retirement.

Consider this: Baseball Reference’s database breaks down batting average by inning and game segment since 1960. The four worst batting averages in those 55 seasons for the period of innings 7-9 are the last four (2011-14), with the .240 of this season the worst. In 1941, it was .268.

It leads to this thought: More and more teams are applying advanced metrics. That group always is looking for what is undervalued, and after valuing the ability to draw walks and hit homers, have we reached the point at which the ability to produce a high batting average has become the undervalued commodity? This is not to disrespect walks and homers. It still is better to have a high on-base percentage than a high batting average and still better to hit a homer than a single.

But if more at-bats are being squelched by strikeouts and the shift, then should the ability of a player to whiff less and use more of the field — to force defenses out of extreme shifts — gain value? In other words, someone such as Daniel Murphy or even Yangervis Solarte.

I spoke to a top executive for three Moneyball-esque teams, and each agreed there was merit to this theory.

“It’s an interesting premise: Has batting average gone from being an overrated statistic to an underrated one? I do think you are onto something,” one executive said. “With all of these strikeouts everywhere, we are so home-run-dependent, and while home runs are always the best single thing, it does feel like we see situations every game where teams can’t move runners from second or third.”

Ultimately, this is about the best way to score runs, and 2013 and ’14 stand as the lowest-scoring seasons since 1992.

“We’ve spent a generation teaching power at the expense of other things,” another executive said. “I’ve watched our minor leaguers play pepper, and it is not a pretty sight.”

If you don’t know what pepper is, ask your dad. But clearly the lack of good contact is impacting run-scoring situations because, in general, you still have to put the ball in play to drive in runs.

The .242 average this year with runners in scoring position not only is the worst since 1960, it is eight points below the second-place mark (1969). The batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs is .212, which is not only the worst since 1960 but 15 points worse than the runner-up (1992).

The batting average in late-and-close situations — seventh inning or later with the batting team leading by one run, tied or with the potential tying run on base, on deck or at-bat — is .240. The five worst averages in those situations since 1960 are 2010-14. Another symbol of how difficult it has become to hit late-game relievers.

And another symbol that chasing DiMaggio is now tougher than ever.