PORT ST. LUCIE — The Mets wanted to keep Matt Harvey out of New York to rehab his surgically repaired elbow, and as time moves forward we are going to see how insignificant that is compared to the huge issue surrounding their ace:
Can they keep him in New York? More specifically, in Queens?
We certainly can dismiss this as a story for another day, because Harvey cannot be a free agent until after the 2018 season, and so much can happen between now and then. Harvey could succumb to what feels like an epidemic these days — young pitchers needing a second Tommy John surgery, which would curtail his market. Someone else could own the Mets by then. This winter actually never could end in New York, eliminating the possibility of playing future baseball seasons.
But a few incidents of late have brought the ticking clock into clearer view. The two sides could pooh-pooh it now, but there was tension in the Harvey-Mets management talks about whether the right-hander would rehab in St. Lucie, just like there was last year about some of Harvey’s off-field endeavors.
Scott Boras clients — particularly the stars — almost always test free agency and let the market dictate their pay. If we needed more evidence, Max Scherzer rejected $144 million from the Tigers and will play out his walk year.
Payroll information for 2014 has become more public, and the Mets are going to rank 22nd in the majors at just north of $89 million. Perhaps that is a proper range for a rebuilding team, even a rebuilding one in a big market — heck, it is almost a deadlock with the Cubs, as an example. Maybe we can believe the payroll reflects an ownership with financial difficulties and that a far different picture will exist in 2018.
There are points to be made that spending hugely is not a direct correlation to winning; check that the plummeting Phillies project to the third-highest payroll in the majors. But you also notice the Mets are likely to have 12 of their 25 players making less than $1 million this year, while, for example, the Giants will have 12 players making $5 million or more. The Mets have five players making $5 million or more, the same number as the A’s, one fewer than the Brewers and Padres.
It means unless there are drastic changes in how Boras or the Mets do business, then one of the six full seasons Harvey is going to spend as a Met is vanishing this year almost certainly without a meaningful pitch being thrown. And let’s face it, if you are a Mets fan, you know enough — that Harvey grew up in Connecticut as a Yankees fan and that he has established he loves living in the City — to see the nuclear option approaching.
After all, this past offseason was the one in which the Mets were promising to spend and the Yankees were vowing to be financially cautious. The Yankees, of course, spent a half-billion dollars on free agents. By 2018, the financial obligations to Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and probably CC Sabathia will be done. If it is Mets vs. Yankees, Wilpons vs. Steinbrenners, well, how do you think that will turn out?
“I don’t think ever about it like that with Matt because of how strongly Matt has expressed his joy of playing in New York,” general manager Sandy Alderson said.
Right, New York. But, yes — especially in his entreaties to rehab in the City rather than St. Lucie — Harvey has made his love of being a Met and of his teammates central to his argument. But, in general, Boras clients have historically made nice in public while prioritizing their earning potential.
“They have David Wright signed [long-term], and in four years the idea is they can have another iconic New York player signed [long-term],” Boras said of the Mets. “This is New York. It is about having iconic players.The bigger issue is the Mets have all the benefits of their market to keep an iconic player — the City, a relatively new stadium, a TV network. That fits the mold of good business in New York.”
In their ideal plan, the Mets would have three aces — Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard — all starring and moving toward free agency. To that end, Boras related the Braves, in a nine-month period bridging 1996-97, circumvented free agency in each case by first making John Smoltz the highest-paid pitcher in the majors, then Tom Glavine and finally making Boras client Greg Maddux the highest-paid player — getting approximately $25 million more in total than either of his rotation mates.
“I kept hearing that Maddux wouldn’t stay, that the Braves couldn’t afford him,” Boras said. “But he got paid, and he stayed.”
We can table it for now — worry St. Lucie or New York — but sometime in the future, we probably will face the question if the Mets will pay Harvey, and whether he will stay.