AL East
1. Rays
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 12-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 88 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Wil Myers. He won the AL Rookie of the Year with 13 homers and an .831 OPS in half a season. Tampa was 21 games over .500 when he started, four over when he did not. If he can give Evan Longoria 30-homer protection, the Rays’ offense jumps up a level.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP: Ryan Hanigan. For a guy who hit .198 last year for Cincinnati, he was in great demand, and the Rays — who wanted him for years — landed the catcher. He does two things the organization loves: Gets on base (.359 career on-base percentage) and excels on defense, particularly in pitch framing. If his offensive game returns to form, Tampa has one of its subtle impact players.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Logan Forsythe. The Yanks tried to get Forsythe, as well, but the Padres did not like the potential return. He is the classic Rays player: A multi-positional asset who fits the organization’s obsession with flexibility and depth.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: How long will they have David Price? They couldn’t find a suitable trade in the offseason, will pay him $14 million and have a large payroll for them of about $75 million. This is all-in for Tampa. The Rays could be tempted in July and, if they are, do they think big picture for their future or wait until the offseason before Price’s walk year to deal him?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if they can stay relatively healthy. Over the last six years only the Yanks have a better record than the Rays (baseball’s Goliath and David), and this is arguably Tampa’s best 25-man roster in this period. They will dive if James Loney was a 2013 fluke, Grant Balfour failed his Oriole physical for a reason that shows up during 2014 and Jake Odorizzi is not ready to be the Rays’ next standout young starter.
2. Red Sox
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 12-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 87 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Clay Buchholz. Among pitchers who threw 100 innings last year, Buchholz’s 1.74 ERA was the majors’ best. The problem was he threw just 108.1 innings. He has never reached 200 in a career of excellence and injury. Jon Lester appeared to take the step from very good to ace-like results as last season progressed. The Red Sox’s chances to repeat go up exponentially if Lester and Buchholz combine for 60 starts.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Xander Bogaerts. His cameo – especially in the postseason — was impressive. He wears No. 2 for Derek Jeter and is precocious as well. Still, he is just 21 and — with Stephen Drew not retained — will be asked to be the full-time shortstop. He has the look of a star, but is that future now?
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Christian Vazquez. Both Red Sox catchers, A.J. Pierzynski and David Ross, are 37. Vazquez has a rep for one of the best arms in pro ball, and he might get a chance to show it off this year.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can it all go so right again? The 2012 campaign was a Valentine’s Day Massacre. Anything that could go wrong did. But last season was a dream year. Boston hit big on six of its seven free agents, its farm system flourished, John Farrell was an ideal successor to Bobby Valentine and the Red Sox — brandishing full beards, strong camaraderie and depth — won it all. The Red Sox are deep again, seem to have kept their all-for-one spirit. But there is a lot of age, and it is just so hard to repeat.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Grady Sizemore is, indeed, back in full so Boston does not have to go with two unproven players (Bogaerts and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.) up the middle. They will dive if physical/performance issues strike a rotation with red flags such as Buchholz, John Lackey and Jake Peavy and the young arms they are so excited about are not yet ready to perform on center stage.
3. Yankees
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 14-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 86 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Masahiro Tanaka. The Yanks spent $175 million on a player who currently has the same number of major league innings as you. At 25, is he ready to be a front-of-the-rotation force (regardless of Brian Cashman’s No. 3 starter statements) to compensate in case CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda have fallen and can’t get up?
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Brian McCann is not only being asked to deliver power and guide a pitching staff, but the Yanks hope his leadership skills allow him to fill a void moving forward when Derek Jeter is gone.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Fred Lewis. Matt Thornton, at 37, might be following the Chris Hammond, Felix Heredia, Gabe White, Ron Villone, Damaso Marte mode of lefties who did not work out after being signed by the Yanks (OK, Marte had a great postseason run in 2009). Lewis, Cesar Cabral or Vidal Nuno might have to supplant him as the main lefty.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Fragility. Jeter, Brian Roberts, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Sabathia and Michael Pineda are all extreme health risks.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive (today and tomorrow) if Tanaka, Pineda and Ivan Nova pitch like a front three, reducing the burden on/importance of Sabathia/Kuroda. They will dive if Jeter and Teixeira cannot be at least competent and David Robertson cannot take the baton from Mariano Rivera.
4. Orioles
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 33-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 80 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Ubaldo Jimenez. Baltimore was criticized for not acting boldly in the offseason, and then, after camps opened, it signed Jimenez, Nelson Cruz, Suk-min Yoon and Johan Santana. That three are starters is not coincidence. Chris Tillman appears to have graduated to be a top-end starter. But Jimenez bounces between high-end force and frustration because of inconsistency/wildness. Is he a No. 2 starter or a No. 1 problem?
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Tommy Hunter. With Jim Johnson traded to Oakland, Hunter will be asked to go from set-up man to closer. But lefties have a .500 career slugging percentage against him.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Kevin Gausman. He appeared in 20 games (five starts) last year and likely begins at Triple-A this season. But he projects to the top of the rotation and is just a call way.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will having starting depth compensate for not having an elite rotation? And will a power-laden lineup make up the rest?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Manny Machado returns successfully from knee surgery and the pitching is — at worst — neutral and not a detriment. They will dive if Jimenez can’t handle the AL East (he has poor results in small samples against the Yanks and Red Sox).
5. Blue Jays
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 25-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 80 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Jose Reyes. He was supposed to be the engine in Toronto’s all-in attempts last year, but his early-season ankle injury was an omen that the champions of the offseason were going to have a rough go. With Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind behind him, Reyes could have a 120-run season if healthy. However, he already was dealing with a hamstring issue late in spring training.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Brandon Morrow. Talented but oft-injured, Morrow has never exceeded 179.1 innings in a season. Toronto expects innings from R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle; it must get excellence from someone such as Morrow to survive the AL East.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Drew Hutchison. He looked good in a 2012 cameo but lost all of last season to Tommy John surgery. He re-opened eyes in spring at a time when the Jays desperately need rotation solutions.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can this rotation of too old (Dickey and Buehrle) and too full of injury risks (Morrow, Hutchison, J.A. Happ) hold up in the AL East?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Morrow and/or Hutchison can provide 175-plus innings of excellence apiece. They will dive if the pitching crumbles like last year.
AL Central
1. Tigers
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 9-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 89 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Whoever plays shortstop. The stress fractures in Jose Iglesias’ shins will cost him most, if not all, of this season. Detroit obtained Andrew Romine and Alex Gonzalez late in spring training in hopes of forming some kind of tandem that brings competence and doesn’t undermine a club with championship aspirations.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Nick Castellanos. One reason Detroit felt comfortable dealing Prince Fielder to Texas and moving Miguel Cabrera back to first was because Castellanos — the club’s top prospect — was available to play third. The expectation is his bat will be fine, but there are some worries about his glove.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Drew Smyly. He was one of the best set-up men last year, and the Tigers believed enough in him and wanted a lefty in the rotation, so they traded Doug Fister to Washington.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: How detrimental will an unsettled and/or inexperienced left side of the infield be?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez combine for 80-plus starts, Joe Nathan stabilizes the bullpen and Victor Martinez stays healthy to protect Cabrera. They will dive if first-year manager Brad Ausmus — who plans for a more diverse offense (with Rajai Davis and Ian Kinsler running more) and more shifts on defense than predecessor Jim Leyland employed — is not ready to handle the job.
2. Royals
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 33-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 82 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Mike Moustakas. A disappointment so far, his .296 on-base percentage is third-worst during his three seasons and his .681 OPS is ninth-worst (1,400 plate appearances minimum). But he tore it up in spring. Is that a sign that, at 25, he is ready to honor his rep and make this lineup fierce or simply a March mirage?
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Alex Gordon. The acquisitions of Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante allow the Royals to move Gordon from leadoff to No. 5 in the lineup. He has not previously excelled in RBI slots. Will he now?
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Yordano Ventura. The talk of the Cactus League with his 100-plus-mph fastball, he won the No. 5 starter job. The rotation takes on a different look if he is the real deal.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Are the Royals ready to handle expectations? They have gone the longest without making the playoffs (since 1985), but they have enough talent to get there now.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Ventura is ready to help James Shields at the top of the rotation and the pen — already with Luke Hochevar (Tommy John surgery) gone for the year — is as good as last season. They will dive if a rotation counting on lefty soft tossers Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen is not good enough.
3. Indians
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 40-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 80 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Danny Salazar. A late-season blessing last year becomes a necessity this year with Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir gone. There are no sure things behind Justin Masterson — no one else, in fact, has even topped 150 major league innings in a season. Salazar is best equipped to pitch toward the top of a rotation.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Carlos Santana. Not as a hitter, but as a third baseman, a position he has not played regularly since 2006 in the minors. The Indians are trying him at the hot corner because of Yan Gomes’ breakout last year behind the plate. They want to get both bats into the lineup as often as possible.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Francisco Lindor. Asdrubal Cabrera is in his walk year and, thus, Cleveland is blessed to have one of the best shortstop prospects on the horizon of reaching the majors.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Is a quartet — Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister — who combined for 380 ¹/₃ major league innings last year ready to hold down 80 percent of a rotation on a contender?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if an in-their-prime middle of the lineup of Jason Kipnis, Santana and Michael Brantley offers about 50 homers and 270 RBIs. They will dive if their rotation forces a heavy workload onto the bullpen again like last year and new closer John Axford is not up to the job.
4. White Sox
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 66-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 75 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Avisail Garcia. Last July the White Sox turned Jake Peavy into Garcia as part of a three-team trade. Garcia has drawn some Miguel Cabrera comparisons, at least because of body type and both hail from Venezuela. The White Sox will take 75 percent of that and seeing him blossom into a middle-of-the-order force.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: John Danks. He was 4-14 with a 4.75 ERA in his comeback season after shoulder surgery. Danks is signed through 2016 for another $42.75 million, so if nothing else, the White Sox will hope he pitches well enough to be traded.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Jose Abreu. It was ultimately overshadowed by Masahiro Tanaka’s signing, but Abreu was the big international catch of the early offseason. Four teams bid more than $60 million, and the White Sox won, believing he would be a 30-homer asset.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Do they have enough talent to make Paul Konerko’s farewell season a celebration rather than a death march?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if their four recent acquisitions — Abreu, Garcia, Matt Davidson and Adam Eaton — form the nucleus of a strong everyday lineup. They will dive if Nate Jones cannot replace Addison Reed as the closer and the rotation does not have much bite beyond Chris Sale and, perhaps, Jose Quintana.
5. Twins
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 100-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 70 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Phil Hughes. The Twins spent $84 million on three starters (Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey) to try and fix a woeful rotation. None is close to an ace. But Hughes is still just 27. Could he be better in a bigger park and out of the New York pressure cooker?
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Aaron Hicks. The center fielder tore up spring training last year to jump from Double-A to the majors, then hit .192 and now has raised questions about his future.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Byron Buxton. One reason Hicks’ opportunities as a Twin could be dwindling is Buxton, who just might be the top prospect in the game. The Twins already know they will be without their other elite prospect, third baseman Miguel Sano, this year after he needed Tommy John surgery. So the question is how far and fast can Buxton, yet to play above A-ball, come?
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: What is Joe Mauer’s value as a first baseman? Minnesota figured it would have to move Mauer from behind the plate during the life of his eight-year, $184 million pact, but three years in was quick, as concussion fears — as well as worries about deteriorating defense — make Mauer the new first baseman.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if their new starters — Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey — can bring competence until Alex Meyer joins the rotation and Buxton the everyday lineup. They will dive if Mauer does not transition well to first and the rotation remains a more expensive mess.
AL West
1. A’s
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 20-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 87 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Yoenis Cespedes. His offensive performance came down last year from his rookie season, and he struggled this spring training. He is slated to hit cleanup. The A’s need his righty might.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Jesse Chavez. The rotation was expected to be a strength, but with projected Opening Day starter Jarrod Parker (Tommy John surgery) out for the year and A.J. Griffin (flexor tendinitis) out for at least a month, the A’s need answers elsewhere. Chavez, who has two starts in six major league seasons, will get a chance to prove he is rotation-worthy.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Addison Russell. With Jed Lowrie in his walk year, the A’s believe they have a ready-made answer in Russell — who just might be the best shortstop prospect in the sport. He is only 20, but it is possible he is this year’s Manny Machado or Xander Bogaerts, joining a playoff chase with the season in motion.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Is there enough starting pitching with Parker done, Bartolo Colon gone to the Mets, Brett Anderson traded to the Rockies and Griffin’s status iffy?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if their rotation does well enough to consistently get the ball in good shape to what might be the majors’ best bullpen. Oakland obtained Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson in the offseason to join, among others, overpowering lefty Sean Doolittle. They will dive if 2013 rookie revelation Sonny Gray and 2013 comeback story Scott Kazmir are not ready to give approximately 400 innings of high-end quality.
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 20-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 86 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Albert Pujols. The Angels tried to address their pitching deficiencies in the offseason but still will need to outscore some of the lingering problems. Pujols missed the last few months of 2013 dealing with a foot injury that all but immobilized him on the field. He has had good agility this spring and is motivated to show he is not done as a force. The Angels need it. He has eight years left on his $240 million contract.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Garrett Richards. He went 6-6 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 starts last year. The stuff is there — particularly a high-octane fastball — to deliver more to a team that needs a rotation boost.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Tyler Skaggs. He knows his GM, Jerry DiPoto, is on his side, having twice traded for him — first as Diamondbacks interim GM and again this winter when he sent Mark Trumbo to Arizona. The lefty throws hard and will be given a chance to stabilize the back of the Angels’ rotation.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: What happens if they suffer rotation injuries? Because while Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Richards, Skaggs and Hector Santiago are hardly the Rays’ collection of arms, what is behind them is far less appetizing.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Pujols and Josh Hamilton stay healthy and team with the indomitable Mike Trout to form a fierce offense that compensates for pitching issues. They will dive if offseason boosts like Skaggs and Santiago are not solutions.
3. Rangers
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 16-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 86 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Martin Perez. With Derek Holland (knee surgery) likely out for half the year and Matt Harrison (back) unlikely to begin the season, Perez needs to follow a strong rookie campaign with even better to provide a No. 2 starter behind Yu Darvish, who also is set to begin the year on the DL.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Prince Fielder. The belief is getting away from personal problems in Detroit and going to a hitter’s haven in Texas will revitalize Fielder, whose OPS fell last year to .819, nearly 100 points lower than his career norm. For the Rangers’ sake, that must be true because they picked up the final seven seasons on the contract of a player turning 30 in May.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Michael Choice. He went to high school and college in Arlington, and the Rangers brought him home in the offseason in a trade with Oakland. He is going to see plenty of outfield/DH chances to show his power is real.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can converted relievers Robbie Ross and Tanner Scheppers, rookie Nick Martinez and journeyman Joe Saunders stabilize a rotation beaten up by injuries?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if the rotation is good or better and Joakim Soria can effectively take the closer baton from Joe Nathan because the offense — with on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo leading off — should be powerful. They will dive if the rotation reaches an injury tipping point, specifically if anything were to happen to Darvish.
4. Mariners
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 33-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 81 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Corey Hart. The Mariners guaranteed $240 million to Robinson Cano to bat third and — to protect him at cleanup — imported Hart, who didn’t play a game last year after knee surgery. They also expect him to play right field. If he can’t, it will mess up their plans elsewhere.
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Justin Smoak. He was the main return for Cliff Lee and has yet to establish himself as a consistent middle-of-the-order cornerstone. Last year was better, as he hit 20 homers and got his OPS up to a career-best .746. Another step up to, say, 25 homers and an .800 OPS would really help the lineup.
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: Taijuan Walker. Shoulder inflammation spoiled spring training, but the Mariners believe they will get him back in late April. He is in the conversation for best pitching prospects in the game.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Will they get enough offense or — like last year in the Yankees’ injury-devastated lineup — will Cano be an island of greatness surrounded by too many easy outs?
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if Hisashi Iwakuma (finger) and Walker return successfully to form a big rotation three with Felix Hernandez and the offense can rise to at least competence. They will dive if players such as Smoak, Dustin Ackley and offseason acquisition Logan Morrison never honor their hype.
5. Astros
ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 250-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 62 ¹/₂
KEY PLAYER: Brett Oberholtzer. Both the lefty Oberholtzer and Jarred Cosart brought some effectiveness to the Astros rotation in the second half last year. Can either/both show enough that they are part of a long-term solution for Houston?
PLAYER WHO’LL NEED TO STEP UP: Scott Feldman. He has never thrown even 190 innings in a season and always has been — at best — a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer. But the Astros gave him a three-year, $30 million deal and, by veteran status, the ball on Opening Day against the Yankees. Can he offer wisdom, at the least, to the youngsters around him?
NAME YOU’LL GET TO KNOW: George Springer. The Astros have a tidal wave of young talent percolating in the minors, and Springer is likely to be the first high-end addition and join the outfield a few months into this season.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can they avoid further humiliation during the rebuild? They have lost 105, 106, 111 games over the last three years. They impacted the AL West and wild-card races by going 6-32 against the A’s and Rangers last year. With the additions of Feldman, Dexter Fowler, Chad Qualls and Matt Albers, they are at least putting something closer to major league talent on the field.
HOW IT’LL GO DOWN: They will thrive if they get Springer to the majors and he performs well while top prospects such as starter Mark Appel and shortstop Carlos Correa navigate to the brink of The Show. They will dive if there is regression from players such as Jose Altuve, Jason Castro and Matt Dominguez — youngsters who may eventually be part of an Astros revival.