Seahawks (+2) over Broncos, Under 47 ½: Broadly heralded as the AFC’s Most Likely to Succeed once Peyton Manning’s neck was deemed fit for duty, John Fox’s Broncos went off on an unparalleled scoring rampage, as Manning and his stable of receivers racked up an outrageous 343 points in their first eight games, coasted to the No. 1 seed and held the Chargers and Patriots at a safe distance at Mile High.
Denver’s defense was lessened by the loss of ace outside linebacker Von Miller, as well as key defensive back Chris Harris, but late-season restructuring of the interior personnel has improved the unit. But the league’s top offense now catches the Seahawks defense, with their superlative secondary featuring all-world-type cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell, free safety Earl Thomas and strong safety Kam Chancellor.
The precise construction of Seattle’s roster is one of the great success stories. Without relying on clusters of obvious early-round picks, the Seattle brain trust concentrated on accumulating certain types, especially in that secondary (athletic, hit-hungry, rangy, with wingspans), and it has served them superbly.
Completing his second pro year, quarterback Russell Wilson doesn’t boast Manning’s weaponry, but Golden Tate can go deep, Zach Miller and Luke Wilson serve adequately as tight ends, the redoubtable Marshawn (not good enough to play for the Bills) Lynch is an irresistible force, and jet-quick wideout/returner Percy Harvin has been pronounced available to wreak havoc.
Though his intermediate passing precision’s a concern, Wilson is smooth, and Denver’s defense has had trouble with multiple deep-ball artistsall year, and Wilson’s capable. But his willingness to go into scramble mode, other than as a last resort, reminds many of Fran Tarkenton, whose style has won nary a title. It’s desirable to be able to scramble only as a last resort (Exhibit A: John Elway), but it shouldn’t be option No. 1.
Everyone is focused on the Seahawks defense against Manning’s offensive orchestrations. The Seattle D allowed more than 30 points in one game a 34-28 Week 6 loss at Indianapolis)and over 20 points in just two othersa 34-22 win at Arizona in Week 7 and a 27-24 overtime win at home in Week 9 over the … Buccaneers!).
The four-man Seattle pass rush carries high hopes of shaking Manning out of his rhythm with his connection express — receiving targets Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, along with running back Knowshon Moreno.
Seattle has the defensive personnel to wreak havoc on Denver’s timing, especially if they send more than four. But they would prefer to hurry Manning to the greatest extent possible without resorting to low-percentage sellout blitzes. Manning will have to drive the field in chunks, with Seattle dedicated to not giving up the long ball down the middle.
The Seahawks’ talent base is built to last. This is a very young team. The 12th Man aids the Seattle cause, but they’re not wholly dependent on that home-field advantage. The Seahawks have gone 16-3-1 against the spread in their last 20 meetings against winning teams.
These ballhawks led the league in picks, while allowing the fewest passing yards in the process. That combo reflects enormous player confidence, and the distinction’s shared by two champions — the ’63 Bears and the ’02 Buccaneers (Dan Marino’s ’82 Dolphins Super loser did it, and it took Montana’s 49ers to beat them), as Pro Football Reference’s Chase Stuart noted. Seattle’s enjoyed a plus-20 turnover edge this season. Denver’s was even, and they have failed to register one postseason takeaway.
Temperatures in the 40s are forecasted at kickoffso this should be a truer test than what might have been. Manning never has won a playoff game in temps below 40, with a TD:INT ratio of 4:9. The mercury is expected to dip into the 30s by game’s end
Terry McAulay’s the Super referee. Officiating tone matters (ask the Super Bowl XL Seahawks about that, after their chances to beat the Steelers were compromised by multiple bizarre judgments). Respect McAulay, but his previous Supes averaged 14 accepted penalties, and a heavy hand could disrupt flow, given the Broncos’ aggressive pick-play tactics in the passing game and the Seahawks’ traditional rough handling of receivers. League pass-interference-call frequency has been down markedly this postseason.
This feature’s past five Super Bowl results have gone well, with the Steelers side miscue against Green Bay three years ago being our only miscalculation on side or total. A Manning coronation’s possible, but expect a game worthy of the endless hype.
As for the total: Having seen last year’s Kentucky Derby tapes, we know Tom Brady will take a flutter. How much do you think he would have theoretically risked (were it permitted) that his Patriots would score 20 or more points in either of their Giant Super bashes?
Pick: Seahawks, 23-17
Conference championships: 0-2 sides; 0-2 over/unders.
Postseason: 4-5-1 sides;