Ken Davidoff

Ken Davidoff

MLB

Mets’ young hurlers stoke hope … but we’ve heard it all before

PORT ST. LUCIE — The optimist arrives at Tradition Field, watches Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and Jack Leathersich throw bullpen sessions and dreams of 1969 and 1986 redux.

The pessimist stands right next to the optimist, watches the same exact events and recalls “Generation K,” featuring Jason Isringhausen, Bill Pulsipher and Paul Wilson. Or, elsewhere in New York, the trio of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

There’s only one proven method for the optimists to prevail, and that’s with sheer numbers. These Mets hope they’re building such a model for success.

“We know the history. Some guys don’t make it. That’s just what happens,” Paul DePodesta, the Mets’ vice president of player development and amateur scouting, said Monday. “They get hurt. They have a disappointing performance. They don’t continue to develop at the same rate they had previously.

“But I think we’ve gotten to the point now, in terms of volume, where some of them are going to make it. Not every one of them will, but a good number of them should, based on what we have at this point.”

There’s Syndergaard, Montero and Leathersich. And Jacob deGrom, Cory Mazzoni, Logan Verrett and native Long Islander Steven Matz. Don’t forget Zack Wheeler and Vic Black, neither of whom has even a full season of major-league service time, and Jenrry Mejia is only 24, even though I’m pretty sure he pitched for the Mets during the Jeff Torborg era.

Moreover, Matt Harvey will still have four years to go before free agency if he can return from Tommy John surgery next year.

“They have very good quantity and quality of pitching prospects,” a talent evaluator from another National League team said. Matt Eddy of Baseball America reported that among full-season minor leaguers in 2013, the Mets’ pitchers paced the industry with a 2.79 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

Now, while the industry praises DePodesta’s work, we New Yorkers tend to search for the cloud amidst the silver lining: If the Mets have an abundance of arms ready to help them this year, when ownership wants to contend, they don’t have anywhere near as many position players.

“I think our pitching by most objective measures, ’12 and ’13, we were among the best in baseball as a system,” DePodesta said. “So that’s a pretty high bar in terms of measuring our position players against those guys.

“That being said, I think we’ve made a lot of progress in the last 12 months with our position players. … We’ve taken some very, very young position players. Guys who are starting to show up in top 10 [lists by media]. As those guys get into higher A and Double-A and Triple-A, I think our position-player system is going to start looking stronger and stronger just because those guys are closer.”

Mets position prospects Kevin Plawecki and Brandon Nimmo

Baseball America’s top 10 list ranked outfielder Brandon Nimmo eighth and shortstop Gavin Cecchini ninth, and that pair gets much attention because DePodesta popped Nimmo as his top selection in his first Mets draft, 2011, and Cecchini the next year, 2012. Nimmo went 13th overall, one slot ahead of 2013 NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez and five ahead of Oakland’s postseason pitching star Sonny Gray.

Cecchini went 12th, seven picks in front of St. Louis pitching stud Michael Wacha. Nimmo and Cecchini are both 20 and haven’t yet played above Class-A.

DePodesta said in both 2011 and 2012, “We’re in that draft room, and everyone’s talking about how good our pitching is and how poor our position players are.”

They pushed to add position players.

“We’d love to have every one of those guys,” he said, referring to Fernandez, Gray and Wacha. “There are going to be lots of guys who end up getting to the big leagues that we didn’t draft. And that’s part of the reality. But we’re happy with the guys that we’ve got, for sure.”

The Mets still consider Nimmo to be a center fielder, DePodesta said, and his growth will come from improved power and more experience hitting lefties.

“I’m 20 years old,” the affable Nimmo said Tuesday. “I think the more that I mature, the more I become a man, just get that man strength, I think [the power] will come.”

Cecchini just needs more reps, DePodesta said. He played in just 51 games last year after suffering a left ankle sprain.

If the Mets lack even distribution in their farm system … first of all, who doesn’t? And second of all, they can use that pitching surplus as trade chips to get what they need.

Baseball is a hard sport; someone once said you can’t predict it. At the moment, however, the optimists can look at the Mets’ farm system, count the quality arms present and keep their fingers crossed this might actually work out.