One of the tightest races in Oscar history is brewing, with three different movies capturing key precursor awards over the weekend.
A dramatic tie between “12 Years a Slave’’ and “Gravity’’ for the highly predictive Producers Guild of America award early Monday morning has thrown the race into chaos — coming just a day after “American Hustle’’ took the Screen Actors Guild’s rough equivalent of a best picture award, for that picture’s acting ensemble.
There had never been a tie in the 24-year history of the PGA award for best feature film, an honor which has translated to Oscar’s Best Picture award for the past six years in a row and 17 times in its 24-year history.
The tie is considered especially significant since the PGA’s nominees virtually matched Oscars, and the PGA uses the same kind of preferential voting system as the academy.
There has never been a tie for the Best Picture Oscar, though there have been one tie apiece for Best Actor (in 1932) and Best Actress (1968) during the awards’ 85-year history.
Only one major guild award remains before the Oscar polls open on Feb. 14 — next Saturday night’s Directors Guild of America award, which has the best track record as an Oscar predictor. Its winner has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar all but seven times since it began in 1948.
Alfonso Cuarón of “Gravity’’ is heavily favored to triumph at the DGA awards, or at least he was before this weekend.
Last year, the DGA went with Ben Affleck, who was not nominated at the Oscars for “Argo,’’ which went on to win the Best Picture award. A split between the Best Picture and Best Director awards is considered likely at this year’s Oscars as well.
It was presenter Affleck who announced the dramatic tie vote at the PGA awards, which are not televised (just as well, as Affleck, made a joke about the size of his penis).
Both the PGA winners —“12 Years a Slave’’ and “Gravity’’— needed a victory to stay in contention for Oscar’s Best Picture after “American Hustle’’ took SAG’s ensemble award Saturday night.
“Hustle’’ won best picture for a comedy at the Golden Globes, while “12 Years’’ took its only Globe for best picture on the drama side.
SAG gave its best actor award to Matthew McConaughey for “Dallas Buyers Club,’’ confirming his front-runner status at the Oscars after previously beating Chiwetel Ejiofor of “12 Years a Slave’’ at the Golden Globes, where there are separate categories for leading actors in dramas versus comedies/musicals.
Globe winner Cate Blanchett of “Blue Jasmine’’ won for SAG’s best actress, confirming she’s a virtual lock at the Oscars.
Ditto supporting actor Jared Leto of “Dallas Buyers Club’’ — though the SAG did differ from the Globes in their pick for supporting actress, Lupita Nyong’o of “12 Years a Slave.’’
Because of the Winter Olympics, the Oscars won’t be held until March 2 this year — providing a long and much more suspenseful race than it seemed like it would be just a few days ago.