Chargers (+7) over BENGALS (Over 47): This was the 1982 Freezer Bowl matchup at Riverfront Stadium for the 1981 AFC title, with the temperature at minus-9 Fahrenheit (with wind-chill conditions far worse) at kickoff.
Postgame, Bolts quarterback Dan Fouts was envious of Ken Anderson’s ability to throw a spiral under the conditions, and the Bengals won easy, 27-7.
Today? Temps in the 30 (though measureable snow is very likely). Philip Rivers, though his chill-factor form has improved sharply this season. After a trio of previous career disappointments in sub-freezing situations, Rivers won road games at Kansas City (41-38) and Denver (27-20).
Success against the Chiefs and Broncos accounted for three of the five wins (the Colts and Eagles also having been victimized) against playoff teams by these Chargers. No other franchise accomplished more in that regard. Yes, they lost to the Texans, Raiders and Redskins, but during their season’s first half, before running back Ryan Matthews (expected to play, after Friday’s practice) settled in, and Keenan Allen emerged at wideout.
Norv Turner no longer is Rivers’ head coach (Mike McCoy has overseen this year’s successes), but the Turner tradition of patient starts and powerful finishes apparently remains in force.
We thought Cincinnati had a good chance to emerge this year, given the regression of the traditional AFC North powers (the Steelers and Ravens) left an opening, but did not anticipate a perfect straight-up and against-the-spread marks at Paul Brown Stadium (beating Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers), on their way to 11-5 and the AFC North title. The Bengals also prevailed in their Dec. 1 visit to San Diego in a stout defensive effort.
Andy Dalton’s interceptions are disconcerting (20 picks this season), but when the Cincy QB is on, he’s on, with 33 TD passes. He is blessed with go-to receivers A.J. Green and Marvin Jones — and the double-barreled rushing combo of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and lively rookie Giovani Bernard — potentially crucial, given Diego’s less than 4.5 average yards-per-rush yield.
It is saddening/maddening that flag-happy ref Jeff Triplette has been assigned this game, and fervently hope we’re not subjected to yet another of his notorious officiating blunders.
This is power (leavened with finesse) against finesse, and don’t doubt this is Bengals coach Marvin Lewis’s golden chance for his first playoff win. Expect they will get it, though not without some anxious moments.
BENGALS, 27-24.
PACKERS (+2 ½) over 49ers (Over 47): The Packers got the message about the Niners in last season’s opener in Lambeau, when Alex Smith-led San Francisco took it to them, 30-22. It wasn’t that close. Jim Harbaugh’s crew confirmed their arrival with last postseason’s read-option two-TD triumph behind Colin Kaepernick (181 yards and two TDs rushing) at Candlestick, and kept it up with a relentless passing display (412 yards, three TDs) in this year’s Week 1 Candlestick track meet.
Don’t doubt there will be steady generation of points, but this time, they will be in Wisconsin, under enervating conditions. Don’t expect a daytime high much above zero degrees, and even with light winds, brutal game-time circumstances loom.
Would not expect that will prove a huge detriment to Kaepernick (a Wisconsin native who went to college in Reno, Nev.). It wasn’t a hindrance to Joe Montana when the Niners invaded a similar Soldier Field icebox and blasted the Bears, 28-3, on their way to the Super Bowl XXIII championship, but can’t see it hurting the Pack.
Could Kaepernick and friends be just a wee bit smug regarding what they have been able to do to Green Bay over the past two seasons? It’s tough to ward off such feelings. They’re catching a bunch of Packers skill people (Rodgers, Randall Cobb, a solid RB like Eddie Lacy, et al) back from injury, freshened up, and primed for timely payback.
Probably because he was coming off a recovery break, Rodgers’ arm was strong last week, and there were overthrows, but he figures to be sharp, this afternoon.
Spotty Niners effort at Arizona last week probably will help putting fear into the red and gold, but Harbaugh’s extreme conservatism since the bye (when against top competition) won’t help his cause — and no Super Bowl loser has engineered a no-doubt cover in an opening-round playoff game away from home in decades. Rodgers and the Packers get off to a clean start, and hold serve, it will be up to defensive coordinator Dom Capers and the defense to hold the fort against Frank Gore and Co.
PACKERS 31-21.