Pessimism about making deals always rules leading up to the trade deadline.
It is one part strategy: Teams hope that by making it sound as if there is no way they would meet the current prices then those prices will go down. It also is about the reality of deadlines: Teams can bluff and posture, and the real prices and priorities will reveal themselves closer to Saturday’s 4 p.m. non-waiver deadline.
As one frustrated NL assistant GM told me Tuesday: “At least today the prices moved from obscene to ridiculous.”
The prices should continue to fall and players are going to get traded. But the marketplace is being slowed by six factors:
1. Two big players already have been traded — Cliff Lee and Dan Haren. So two attractive pieces are out of play. When it comes to the deadline, it’s instructive to remember that the Yanks jumped out of nowhere to have a deal in principle for Lee before Seattle veered and traded the lefty to Texas. And the Angels were completely under the radar in their pursuit of Haren. So it is probable the big stuff is happening away from the rumor mill.
Yet one very-plugged-in GM e-mailed me yesterday, “My calls today leave me with the impression that this will be a very quiet deadline. [Jayson] Werth, [Prince] Fielder, [Corey] Hart, [Adam] Dunn, [Josh] Willingham, Roy [Oswalt], et al, could very well stay put.”
The most likely player to move in that group is Dunn. The Yanks have mild interest, but it appeared the White Sox and Giants were pushing harder. Those two clubs plus Tampa, Minnesota and Philadelphia were viewed as the teams most motivated to buy; and, of course, the Yanks always are seen as lurking, though their officials currently are among the most pessimistic on deal making.
The most motivated sellers right now are the Cubs (Ted Lilly will be dealt), Diamondbacks (Edwin Jackson and Kelly Johnson) and Blue Jays (Jose Bautista and Scott Downs).
2. Few buyers have money to spend.
3. Few sellers are feeling the financial crunch to sell just to rid themselves of contracts. The Indians are saying they are not in must-sell mode. But other organizations think Cleveland’s market is so depressed that it will work hard to move salaries, which might have begun yesterday when they dealt Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers. The Indians also will try to move Jake Westbrook and Kerry Wood. One AL official said, “They usually get at least an attendance bump from having the Yanks in town, but they got only 27,000 the first two games of that series.”
4. Teams are valuing (over-valuing?) prospects like never before.
“When the Yanks are giving you a long list of who they won’t trade, that means the whole sport is protecting prospects,” one AL GM said.
5. The races are fluid. The Angels, Rockies and Mets all have trended the wrong way since the All-Star Game. That has thinned the herd of aggressive buyers. Conversely, the Rays and Phillies have played well.
“Tampa was going for it anyway this year because they are taking the payroll down next year,” an AL official said. “If I had to bet on one team to make a big move, it is them because they think big anyway and they are motivated.”
A week ago, the Phillies were considering selling or buying, but now they are working hard to try to address shortcomings.
6. There is a strong belief that a boatload of players will get through waivers and be available in August, so many teams do not even consider Saturday a true deadline.
“Most of the guys available on July 31 are going to be available in August,” an NL GM said.
Thus, for example, the Mets are now in a mode where they might bypass the July deadline, see if they rebound in the standings, and if they do, try to time a trade to help when their schedule turns very soft in the second half of August. At that moment, the prices in dollars and prospects almost certainly will be even less.
Don’t expect blockbuster Bosox deal
The Red Sox are getting healthier and playing better. Yet the expectation is that one of the most aggressive teams annually at the trade deadline probably is only going to make a minor move, such as add a set-up man, before Saturday’s 4 p.m. deadline.
Why? The Red Sox do not believe they are in the same place as an organization that they were, for example, when they made huge deadline deals in 2007 (Eric Gagne), 2008 (Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay as part of a three-team trade) and 2009 (Victor Martinez).
The Red Sox will not give up on this season, of course. Boston GM Theo Epstein is, as usual, checking in on markets big and small. But the Red Sox are not as motivated to give up big prospects this year as in recent seasons because:
1. It might not matter in the AL East. The Yanks and Rays might just be the majors’ best two teams, and the injury swarm that infected Boston’s roster could keep the Red Sox from winning the 95-plus games it probably will take to be the wild card. Boston has gotten back key pieces (Martinez, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett), but Dustin Pedroia still is a few weeks away. Before completing a three-game sweep of the Angels yesterday, the Red Sox were considered to have just a 28.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus’ formula.
2. Boston always was keeping an eye on 2012. The contracts for David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and Martinez expire over the next two years, which will provide the Red Sox a lot of dollars with the general concept of having a younger roster in 2012. They were willing to deal for Martinez last year because they internally viewed the key pieces surrendered, Nick Hagadone and Justin Masterson, who could be sold as starters, but who likely were to be relievers for them. Now they would only trade one of their top prospects for a player who would help beyond this year.
3. The Red Sox feel their prospects will have much greater value next year after a down season this year. Perhaps their best prospect, Ryan Westmoreland, had to undergo brain surgery in spring training. Also, Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo were pushed to Double-A at age 20, and Lars Anderson to Triple-A at 22, and all have endured struggles.
Amazin’s should consider Zambrano
The Mets currently are looking at a specific kind of pitcher: one who has not had a very good year, to date, but whom their scouts like. The thought is that they could buy low and potentially get the best few months of an undervalued pitcher’s season.
Carlos Zambrano would fit that criteria, and he is very available.
Now this is pure speculation — in other words, this is not something anyone has told me is possible. But if you were the GMs of both teams, would you do this deal: Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo for Zambrano?
It is almost a perfect salary match for next season: Perez and Castillo combine to make $18 million, Zambrano $17.875 million. However, Zambrano is guaranteed $18 million for 2012. So the question is how much would the Cubs eat of the 2012 salary to make Zambrano’s bad act disappear? And how much of a 2012 salary for Zambrano would the Mets be willing to add in 2012 to make Perez and Castillo vanish?
Are the Cubs so fed up with Zambrano that they would be willing, for example, to eat $12 million, and would the Mets be willing to add $6 million in 2012?
The Cubs did a similar deal with the Mariners last offseason. The Cubs wanted Milton Bradley off their roster and Seattle wanted the Oliver Perez-esque Carlos Silva off its roster. Seattle agreed to pay $9 million between this year and next year of Silva’s contract.