Sports

Play on greens is likely to determine Masters winner

AUGUSTA, Ga. — Who do you like?

Who will look best in green come Sunday night in the Butler Cabin once the final putt has been dropped in the 2013 Masters?

Do you like Tiger Woods, who appears poised to resume his chase of Jack Nicklaus’ major championship record and win his first major since 2008 and first Masters since 2005?

Listening to Woods and examining his body language this week, he not only sounds and looks like someone who hopes to capture his fifth Green Jacket, but someone who expects to do so.

Do you like Rory McIlroy, who is doing his damnedest to show the world that he can — and will — thrive as the world’s No. 1 player, a ranking he recently lost to Woods, while wearing the Nike swoosh and playing its equipment?

If you listened to McIlroy this week, you heard a player whose confidence is tepid after a roller-coaster first three months to the season that included reaching a frustration level so high he walked off the course in the middle of his second round at the Honda Classic.

Do you like Phil Mickelson, who — regardless of what kind of form he takes into the tournament — transforms into a Masters favorite the moment he takes that magical drive down Magnolia Lane each April?

Mickelson, who has won three Green Jackets (2004, 2006, 2010), has expressed some trepidation about his game entering the week, because he had to alter his routine of playing the week before a major.

Do you like Bubba Watson to successfully defend his title — something that has been done just three times in Masters history (Woods, Nicklaus and Nick Faldo)?

The way Woods is playing — specifically the way he is putting — he seems like the most likely candidate for Watson to slip the Green Jacket onto on Sunday evening as the next Masters champion.

“Tiger, with the confidence he has right now, is scary,’’ ESPN analyst Paul Azinger said. “If he putts the way he has been lately, it doesn’t matter what anyone else does this week. Tiger will win.’’

The perfect statistical measure to what Woods’ putting has meant to his success came during his win at Bay Hill last month, when he finished 49th in the field in driving distance, 71st in driving accuracy, 34th in greens hit in regulation and 47th in proximity to the hole and won anyway.

At Bay Hill, Woods ranked first in putting and first in “strokes gained,’’ which equates each player’s putting from a specific distance against the whole field.

In his final 36 holes at Bay Hill, Woods made 30 of 31 putts from inside 10 feet.

Interestingly, Woods enters this week having hit 67 percent of greens in regulation, which is almost exactly the same number he was hitting in 2012. His average driving distance this year, too, is virtually the same (295 to 297.4 yards last year).

This season, he is ranked 144th on the PGA Tour in fairways hit at 54.9 percent, while last year he was ranked 66th with a 63.1-percent rate.

The transformation from being a player trying to regain his major championship mojo to a player who again is the heavy favorite to win every tournament he plays is all about what is taking place on the greens.

Woods hasn’t won the Masters since 2005. But in six of the past seven years he has played, he has been in contention. The difference between winning and losing always has been his putting.

“I was there, ball‑striking-wise, a few years through that stretch where I think I hit it pretty well,’’ he said. “I hit a lot of greens, but just didn’t make enough putts.’’

When he does in majors, the pursuit of Jack Nicklaus will regain momentum.

“I’ve said it and I continue to say it — that I still expect him to break my record,’’ Nicklaus said. “He’s too talented, too driven and too focused on that. [But], obviously, the older he gets and if he doesn’t win, it makes my record move out further [from reach].

“He’s [37] and he’s got to win five more majors, which is a pretty good career for most people. He’s played very, very well this spring (three wins), and I think if he wins here it would be a very large step toward regaining the confidence that he has not had in a major in, what, 3 1/2 years.’’

Actually, it’s been nearly five years, but who’s counting … other than Tiger.

mark.cannizzaro@nypost.com