’LUTE MUSIC: Rosie Napravnik rides Mylute in training for the Kentucky Derby. (AP)
Every year as the middle jewel of the Triple Crown approaches, conventional handicapping wisdom dishes out a number of timeworn platitudes concerning the Preakness Stakes and Pimlico. Some are based on fact, others are not. Which of those clichés are true, and which are myths?
1. With its tight turns and short stretch, the Preakness favors front-runners.
Myth.
The turns at Pimlico are virtually identical to those at Churchill Downs, and the stretch — that is, the distance from the last turn to the finish — is 1,162 feet, as compared to 1,234 for Churchill (just 72 feet shorter) and 1,097 at Belmont Park.
As for front-runners having the edge: Over the past 25 years, only Louis Quatorze and Rachel Alexandra have gone gate-to-wire in the Preakness, while War Emblem and Shackleford were just a half-length or less off the lead, pressing the early pace.
The fact is, most Preakness winners rally from off the pace, some from well behind. Last year, I’ll Have Another was fourth after the first half-mile, 3 1/2 lengths off the pace, and he was able to run down Bodemeister in deep stretch, even though Bodemeister led by three lengths with a furlong to run through a moderate pace.
2. The Preakness is a race for favorites.
True.
Again going back 25 years, 10 favorites have won and nine have run second, with the second choice winning seven times — that’s 17 of 25 winners that were among the top two choices in the wagering.
Bettors can be especially astute when it comes to spotting horses ready to rebound from losses in the Kentucky Derby, making Pine Bluff (fifth in the Derby), Prairie Bayou (second), Timber Country (third), Point Given (fifth) and Afleet Alex (third) the favorites at Pimlico since 1988.
3. Fresh horses that skipped the Kentucky Derby have the edge over those running back in two weeks.
Myth.
The numbers show horses coming out of the Derby have a big edge — which makes sense, of course, because for the most part, the best 3-year-olds run for the roses.
Over the past quarter-century, 22 Preaknesses have been won by horses that ran in the Derby, with Derby horses running second 17 times and third 17 times. All in all, Derby horses have accounted for 14 of the last 25 Preakness exactas and 8-of-25 trifectas.
Since 1988, nine horses — Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and I’ll Have Another — have completed the Derby-Preakness double, while only six Derby winners finished worse than third: Strike the Gold, Lil E. Tee, Sea Hero, Monarchos, Barbaro and Super Saver. None of them was the Derby favorite.
* One in, one out. Yesterday, trainer Tom Amoss confirmed Mylute — fifth in the Derby, beaten 3 3/4 lengths by Orb, but only by a bit more than a length for second — will run back in the Preakness, while trainer Greg Geier pulled Street Spice from consideration.
“I talked with [the owners],” Amoss said after Mylute galloped yesterday at Churchill Downs. “We discussed how he was doing and how he was training, and the decision was made to go to Baltimore. He is booked on the plane for Wednesday.
“If Orb runs his race back in the Preakness, he will be hard to beat. We have to find four lengths.”
Mylute will be ridden back by Rosie Napravnik, just the third female jockey to have a Preakness mount.
“I’m fired up,” she said. “The Preakness is just as high up on my list as the Derby. It would probably mean the most to me to win at Pimlico, where I started out and have all the original supporters, the people who really got me going. It would mean so much to win that race.”