With a bit of luck and good implementation, President Obama’s emerging Mideast strategy — build a coalition of pro-US forces in the region to oppose the radicals — could erase the errors that tarred his first four years.
The most important improvement is that now we seem to have at least the start of a strategy. Deliberately moving to coalesce allied regional players is much preferred to the zigzagging and downright neglect that plagued Obama’s first term, leaving Middle Easterners confused and frustrated.
Obama visited Jerusalem, Ramallah and Amman last month. Yesterday, Secretary of State John Kerry, on his third Mideast trip already this year, was in Ankara for a Syria-strategy session, and trying to speed up Turkish-Israeli reconciliation.
Plus, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel landed in Israel yesterday, before heading on to Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the trip, he’s expected to finalize $10 billion in arms deals to upgrade three local air forces. “I don’t think there’s any question that that’s another very clear signal to Iran,” Hagel said as he landed.
At a congressional hearing last week, Hagel pointedly noted that America has the military capability to back Israel if it decides to go after Iran’s nuclear facilities (if, he added, Obama chooses to use those capabilities).
Separately, the Senate Foreign Relation Committee passed a resolution calling on the administration to support Israel if, for its own defense, it attacks Iran’s atomic installations.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recited the country’s right, as reaffirmed by Obama, to “defend itself by itself.” And Israel Defense Force Chief of Staff Benny Gantz made clear that, yes, his IDF can attack Iran’s nuclear facilities “by itself.”
That ability will improve significantly with the new arms, which include US-made KC-135s. The modern refueling planes will significantly add to the IDF’s ability to strike far from Israel’s borders.
And Israel will become the first foreign country to receive V-22 Ospreys. The vertical-takeoff-and-landing craft can help rescue pilots downed in far-off lands, or carry commando troops for assault missions there.
The air forces of the UAE and Saudi Arabia will also get significantly upgrades, with new F16s, F15s and missiles —improving their abilities to fend for themselves if things get hairy with Iran.
Elsewhere, 100 US troops are arriving in Jordan to help that country deal with the increasingly widening war next door in Syria. They may also prepare for the possibility that America may be drawn in.
(In a letter to the UN secretary-general, British and French diplomats last week detailed several incidents in which chemical weapons were deployed in the Syrian civil war. US intelligence also increasingly believe chems have been used there — something Obama earlier called a “game changer” that might pull US forces in.)
Mind you, Hagel, Kerry and Obama haven’t turned trigger-happy. The aircraft that will bolster Israel’s ability to strike Iran, for example, won’t get there for two years — presumably long after Tehran has crossed Netanyahu’s famous “red line” on Iranian nuclear progress.
And, while I’m told that some in Obama’s inner circle are starting to recognize the futility of negotiating with Tehran, others still believe diplomacy can work miracles. And the official Obama line is that there’s still time to explore the possibility that pressure will force Iran to end its nuclear pursuit.
But I hear that Pentagon planning for a US attack on Iran’s installations is going into high gear. After all, Obama has vowed to prevent Tehran from achieving nuclear capabilities. And the administration is preparing the ground by arming America’s allies.
Yes, Kerry made an odd statement last week about how the window on the two-state solution will close in two years (and then what?). For State, at least, forging a regional coalition still begins with resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
That’s a mistake: With little chance for real movement, chasing peace down the “process” rabbit hole could backfire and alienate potential allies. Also, the alliance scheme could backfire badly if one or more allied regimes succumbs to anti-American radical Arab Springers.
Such caveats aside, Obama seems to, finally, seriously be addressing some of the Mideast’s thorniest challenges, and even have a budding strategy to resolve them. Better late than never – and let’s all hope it’s not too late.
Twitter: @bennyavni