A day after their candidate was barred from next month’s presidential election, supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were being rounded up across the country.
According to the official Islamic Republic News Agency (Irna), which is controlled by Ahmadinejad’s faction, the crackdown has hit civil servants, media people, businessmen, politicians and even mullahs. Irna also reported this week that scores of Web sites controlled by pro-Ahmadinejad groups have been filtered or totally blocked by the security forces.
Ahmadinejad’s would-be candidate is Esfandiar Mashaei, now secretary-general of the Non-aligned Movement, a grouping of 120 countries formed during the Cold War.
Mashaei’s candidacy was vetoed by the Council of Guardians, a 12-man mullah-dominated star chamber that pre-selects candidates for elections in the Islamic Republic. Also vetoed was ex-President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an 80-year-old mullah who was a close aide to Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the regime.
The Council of Guardians has offered no reasons for nixing more than 400 candidacies, approving only eight. But it’s generally assumed that Rafsanjani and Mashaei were vetoed with a nod from “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei.
Rafsanjani, who ran a reign of terror and corruption during his two-term presidency in the 1980s and ’90s, had cast himself as a pro-reform candidate who would clip Khamenei’s wings. For his part, Mashaei’s claim to have a direct line to the “Hidden Imam” — and thus, by implication, no need to obey Khamenei — did not endear him to the “Supreme Guide.”
Rafsanjani has indicated that he’ll accept the end of his candidacy in silence, but Mashaei says he won’t retire without a fight. “This is not the end,” he told his supporters. “We shall pursue the matter through all means available.”
For his part, Ahmadinejad has described the vetoing of his protégé as “a blatant act of injustice” and vowed to do “all that is necessary” to get Mashaei reinstated.
It’s not clear what the two men can do. Iran’s election law offers no mechanism to appeal the council’s decisions, nor is the council obliged to publish its reasons for rejecting an application.
However, in 2009, two candidates succeeded in reversing the council’s decision by appealing to the “Supreme Guide” — who, under the Khomeinist constitution, has the final say on all matters and could even suspend the basic rules and practices of Islam.
Thus, it is theoretically possible for Khamenei to reinstate Rafsanjani and Mashaei. But even if he does, neither man has a chance to win.
The hard core of the Khomeinist constituency, representing perhaps 10 percent of the 55 million eligible to vote, regards both men as “lapsed revolutionaries.” The two had each hoped to benefit from a massive turnout by protest voters wishing to send a message to Khamenei and his backers in the military-security apparatus.
The eight candidates allowed to run belong to two factions that have consistently supported Khamenei as he has built his personality cult while downgrading all institutions, including the presidency.
In fact, Khamenei has said he is thinking of replacing the presidency with the post of a prime minister appointed by the “Supreme Guide.” That would help the regime avoid the agony it faces every four years with presidential elections.
According to Tehran sources, Khamenei’s favorite is Saeed Jalili, who has led the Iranian side in nuclear negotiations with the European Union, the United States, China and Russia. That would mean a further narrowing of the regime’s popular base, as Jalili is perceived to be a hardliner.
If Khamenei wishes to keep channels open beyond his faction, he might instead accept:
* Hassan Rouhani, a mid-ranking mullah with contacts in the West, including the United States.
* Tehran Mayor Muhammad-Baqer Qalibaf, a former police chief who crushed the student revolt during the presidency of Muhammad Khatami and has maintained contact with the pro-Rafsanjani faction.
* Muhammad-Reza Aref, who could also provide a link with the Rafsanjani faction, having served as a presidential aide to Khatami a decade ago.
The crackdown on Ahmadinejad supporters may be the opening shot in a bigger campaign to dismantle the networks of support the outgoing president has built in the past eight years.
“Unknown security forces are raiding people’s homes at night to terrorize innocent supporters of the president,” Irna reported this week. “No one knows who is behind these raids and arrests.”
But many in Tehran believe that the crackdown could end up affecting both Ahmadinejad and Mashaei.