Business

PUBLISHERS SEE RED, MAG AD PAGES DOWN 21.5% IN Q1

MAGAZINES are generally seen as good early warning signs for economic downturns. The thinking is that corporations would rather cut back on ads before they actually have to start cutting back on people.

If that thinking holds, we’re in for a long and deep recession.

Tomorrow, Media Industry Newsletter is releasing its report on the first quarter of 2009 and it will show ad pages have tumbled a numbing 21.5 percent for monthlies in the period compared with the first quarter of 2008. (MIN gets early numbers because the March issues are starting to hit newsstands.)

In comparison, in the first quarter of 2008 magazines had just gone negative, dropping 4.6 percent after racking up small gains for most of 2007. Ad pages have now been falling for five straight quarters, MIN reports.

What is most upsetting in the latest wipeout is that virtually no category of magazine is spared. “Never have there been advertising performances so weak that just 13 out of the 160 monthlies are up through the first quarter,” MIN reported.

Newsweeklies are decimated. Time is down 47.7 percent through its Feb. 16 issue and Newsweek is down 37.6 percent through the same period. Not surprisingly business/finance titles are bleeding: BusinessWeek is off 34.8 percent; Forbes is down 33.1 percent and Fortune is 24.9 percent below last year.

So what’s looking good? Guns & Ammo is up 7.4 percent.

Sexy women? It depends. Penthouse is up 12.3 percent but rival Playboy is down 22.1 percent in ad pages. The red hot Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue, which hit newsstands last week, dwarfs both of them with 203 ad pages, but that’s down 28.8 percent from a year ago when it had 285 ad pages. SI reports its online traffic has tripled versus 2008.

General car books are getting hammered as expected with Automobile, Road & Track and Motor Trend all down more than 30 percent, but not everything requiring fuel is sputtering. A few specialized pursuits are making it. Motorcylist is up 9.4 percent and Sport Truck is up 3.3 percent.

One potentially encouraging sign: kids and family seem to be getting more attention. Family Circle is up 5.4 percent, National Geographic Kids is up 1.9 percent while Sports Illustrated Kids is up 29.6 percent.

business@nypost.com