ALBANY – The growing view that Democrats will take the state Senate for the first time in 40 years got an added boost last week with Republican Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno’s surprise decision to retire.
As a senior GOP strategist put it, “Joe wouldn’t have gotten out if he didn’t think there’s a good chance we’re going to be in the minority next year.”
A Democratic Senate victory would put state government in the hands of one party for the first time since the Republicans lost full control of both branches in 1974. But it won’t mean the end of Albany’s infamous gridlock and dysfunction, despite Democratic claims to the contrary.
Top Democratic and Republican strategists told The Post that a Democratic Senate victory would, in fact, trigger one of the fiercest political fights ever and produce a sustained period of even more than the usual Albany chaos.
The main reason is that after 44 years of being out of power, Senate Democrats don’t have the knowledge, skill or talent to be an effective majority. And many Democrats – including some close to Gov. Paterson – agree.
Senate Democrats are also so liberal and so disproportionately from New York City that some of Paterson’s aides fear a Democratic majority will refuse to join the governor in his effort to cut state spending, cap skyrocketing property taxes and improve the state’s harsh business climate.
As a result, Paterson and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, a Manhattan liberal who is already resisting the governor’s tax-cap plan, are expected to move quickly to exert control over a new Senate Democratic majority – hoping to steer it in their own direction.
“Even before Jan. 1, if the Democrats take control, there’ll be all-out warfare between Paterson and Silver over who has the most influence in the Senate,” predicted a prominent Democrat.
“They’ll kill each other, because David and Shelly have different agendas and each will need the Senate on his side,” the Democrat continued.
Another reason for the predicted chaos: Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith of Queens has a tense and often-unfriendly relationship with Paterson. The governor may seek to replace him with another Democrat, possibly Jeffrey Klein of The Bronx, as majority leader if the Dems take control. Dean Skelos of Nassau County is now the GOP majority leader.
If Paterson ends up tapping a Dem for majority leader, Silver may weigh in with his considerable clout to back Smith.
There’s a precedent: Silver often did the same thing by forming an alliance with Bruno against former Govs. Eliot Spitzer, a Democrat, and George Pataki, a Republican.
Even more likely, since Smith and Silver also have cool relations, Silver may favor a third candidate, making it an even more divisive battle.
And that fight could get uglier if Senate Republicans, reduced to a new minority status, decide to engage in some mischief and throw their united support to one of the Democrats, and decide the outcome.
“If people think Albany is dysfunctional now, wait to see what happens if the Democrats take over,” said Brendan Quinn, a one-time state GOP executive director.
“The internal struggles within the different factions of the Democratic Party – Paterson, [Attorney General Andrew] Cuomo, Silver, Malcolm Smith, not to mention [Sens.] Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton – they’ll all play out and make for chaos if the Democrats are in the majority,” said Quinn, who is currently advising several Republican candidates.