THE divorce rate in sports is getting higher and uglier, and we are not talking Alex Rodriguez and Cynthia.
Happily ever after has become tougher to find. In the last year, Joe Torre, Shaquille O’Neal, Manny Ramirez and Brett Favre not only left places they won championships. They left with the relationship in tatters. They left places where they should have been honored guests forever – think retired numbers and old-timer/reunion ceremonies – to needing brokered peaces in the future to ever return.
Who knew Mike and the Mad Dog would be a metaphor for our time in sports?
Which brings us to Derek Jeter, the Yankees and the union we once assumed was unbreakable. But if Favre started for the Jets last night, we must consider what not long ago would have been unthinkable. Jeter looks in decline. The Yanks look as if they want to get younger and – when possible – less expensive. And suddenly that expiring contract after the 2010 season becomes the elephant in the room of the Yankees’ future.
Because Jeter is no more associated with the Yankees than Favre was with the Packers. If that marriage can end in such a nasty divorce, don’t we at least have to consider that it can happen with Jeter and the Yanks – at least this version of the Yanks?
The involved parties, as you would expect, treated the subject like plutonium. Jeter told The Post’s George King that he did not follow the Favre situation “very closely” and that he hasn’t thought about his next contract. Sure he hasn’t. Jeter’s long-time agent, Casey Close, refused to discuss the matter, saying, “It is far too premature to answer that.”
Yankees GM Brian Cashman said, “Who is to predict how things take place? We have problems in the present to deal with. Trying to anticipate the future is a waste of time and energy right now.”
Nevertheless, the clock moves quickly in sports. It already feels like 2009 around the Yanks, who could miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993 – the year after they used the sixth-overall pick to draft Jeter. And by the way, plenty of Yankees upper management types have spent more than a few seconds discussing just how traumatic and pivotal a decision is looming with Jeter, regardless of what they say publicly. So why don’t we do the same:
1. WHO IS JETER?
In 2008, Jeter’s power, never great, has dimmed; and his stolen base acumen, once a huge factor, has become mostly inconsequential. Jeter’s batting average and on-base percentage are down roughly 10 percent. He has remained an extreme groundball hitter, which with a slight dip in speed has him on pace to hit into more double plays than ever. The result is Jeter has gone from among the five most productive shortstops ever to merely a slightly above average current shortstop.
And the trend line is not favorable. Jeter now projects to reach base less frequently and – with the plummet in extra-base hits and steals – reach scoring position by his own abilities far less frequently. Meanwhile, he produces two outs with one swing more frequently with double plays, a number that should only rise as his speed declines further.
This is the falloff at 34. What will he look like when the Yanks must consider committing to him in 2011 and beyond? Part of Jeter’s drop this year might be due to being hit in the hand by Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera on May 20, at which time Jeter was hitting .315, but with no power or speed game. Nevertheless, with his dive-over-the-plate style, Jeter always is going to face such injuries.
Now you don’t want to bet against a prideful, skilled athlete such as Jeter. With criticism of his defense heavy, Jeter recommitted himself to offseason conditioning – particularly working on his lateral movement – and his defense is better now than in recent years, though still nowhere near elite status. Could Jeter re-apply himself to upgrade his offense in the offseason and become a more attractive long-term asset?
2. WHO ARE THE YANKEES?
Will they be the organization that made offers Torre and Bernie Williams had to refuse and, thus, leave on bad terms? Or will they overpay to get Jeter to stay into his 40s the way they did for Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada?
Cashman wants the Yanks to stop relying so heavily on older/expensive players in decline. Even at his best in 2010, Jeter will be in decline. Will he even be able to play shortstop? Because of Cal Ripken’s historic meaning to the franchise, the Orioles stuck with him at short far too long and then probably at third, too, and it is one of the cornerstone reasons the organization has not had a winning record for a decade.
Jeter has undeniable historic meaning. He likely will just be shy of 3,000 hits when his current contract – which pays him $41 million between 2009-2010 – expires. He is the team captain, the face of the recent dynasty and a player who has gracefully handled his time in the extreme spotlight. He gets the little things right. He stayed for the entire Home Run Derby and 15-inning All-Star Game at the Stadium. He and Andy Pettitte were the current Yankee players who went to Bobby Murcer’s memorial in Oklahoma.
A-Rod re-signed for 10 years and stated it was because he yearned to be a true Yankee, but he bailed on the All-Star festivities, was a no-show on Murcer and a late arriver for the final Old-Timer’s Day at Yankee Stadium.
Yet, Rodriguez already might be the face of these Yanks and definitely would be if Jeter were to leave. Do the Yanks want that? Does Jeter accept any kind of short-term deal and/or paycut after his best enemy, Rodriguez, was lavished long-term? Do the Yanks risk re-signing Jeter and have an already limited Jeter/A-Rod infield left side turn Jurassic and/or try to find new positions for one or both? Do the Steinbrenners even own the team in 2010 and what kind of Yankees organization exists then, one still capable of titles or some post-1964-like wasteland?
Jeter is associated with winning, and no one would have believed those four championships he earned in his first five full seasons would be it. Then, again, no one ever imagined one day Favre would be a Jet or that the Yanks and Jeter wouldn’t live happily ever after.