AFC EAST
New England Patriots – 11-5
The skinny: The Belicheaters remain The Team to Beat, even if Tom Brady won’t be throwing 23 TD passes to Randy Moss this season, in part because there will likely be more emphasis on running game with Laurence Maroney & Co. No. 1 pick ILB Jerod Mayo infuses new blood into aging LB corps. CB Asante Samuel (Eagles) will be tough to replace, however.
Over/Under wins: 12
Odds to win Super Bowl: 5-2
Serby says: Expect some kind of Super Bowl hangover to sabotage any Perfect Season ambition early, but it’s folly to bet against Killer Bs Bill Belichick and Brady, even if Gisele Bundchen’s significant other didn’t take a preseason snap.
New York Jets – 10-6
The skinny: You’ve heard Brett Favre is the new quarterback, right? New G Alan Faneca and new RT Damien Woody bolster woeful offensive line, and run-stuffing NT Kris Jenkins and pass-rushing OLB Calvin Pace significantly upgrade Gang Green. No. 1b draft TE Dustin Keller is downfield threat to open field up for Laveranues Coles and emerging Jerricho Cotchery.
Over/Under wins: 81?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby says: Expect Favre to struggle early, but RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington should profit from offseason spending spree, and defense is suddenly rife with playmakers (ILB David Harris; S Kerry Rhodes; CB Darrelle Revis).
Buffalo Bills – 8-8
The skinny: Offseason signing of DT Marcus Stroud, return of 2007 No. 1 draft LB Paul Posluszny and 2008 No. 1 draft CB/KOR Leodis McKelvin bolster defense and special teams.
Over/Under wins: 71?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50-1
Serby says: RB Marshawn Lynch is a beast, but QB Trent Edwards doesn’t have enough experience to overcome Brady and Favre.
Miami Dolphins – 4-12
The skinny: You’ve heard Chad Pennington is the new quarterback, right? Wizard of Oz Bill Parcells made sure DE Jason Taylor is now Dancing With the Redskins.
Over/Under wins: 5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 150-1
Serby says: By midseason, you’ll be wise to take the overinflated points, especially if 2007 No. 1 pick WR/PR Ted Ginn starts wrecking games.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers – 10-6
The skinny: Fast Willie Parker returns from broken leg, but OL won’t be as formidable without Alan Faneca. No. 1 pick RB Rashard Mendenhall is blue-chip insurance and short-yardage menace. Big Ben Roethlisberger lobbied for big target and – voila! – rookie WR Limas Sweed.
Over/Under wins: 91?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12-1
Serby says: Heat’s on OL to keep Big Ben upright so he can target new Go-To Guy Santonio Holmes. Cake division.
Cleveland Browns – 8-8
The skinny: NT Shaun Rogers and DE Corey Williams will make life easier for OLB Kamerion Wimbley to get after the quarterback, a necessity given suspect secondary. WR Donte’ Stallworth gives Derek Anderson a deep threat opposite Braylon Edwards.
Over/Under wins: 81?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20-1
Serby says: Anderson might not be one-hit wonder, but no way he repeats stunning 2007 heroics. And don’t forget, he’ll be looking over his shoulder at Brady Quinn. RB Jamal Lewis will need another monster year behind formidable OL. Otherwise, these are your Not Ready For Prime Time Players.
Cincinnati Bengals – 6-10
The skinny: QB Carson Palmer has All-Police Blotter WR Chris Henry back with Chad Johnson (shoulder) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hamstring) not 100 percent. Looks as if Chris Perry and Kenny Watson will share RB load. Ouch!
Over/Under wins: 71?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 45-1
Serby says: Schedule calls for games against Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Colts and Jaguars. That’s OUCHO Cinco.
Baltimore Ravens – 3-13
The skinny: Does it matter who quarterbacks this team, Troy Smith or No. 1b draft Joe Flacco? The WR corps is bereft of playmakers, and can anyone be sure RB Willis McGahee can stay on the field? A rude awakening for energetic rookie coach John Harbaugh.
Over/Under wins: 7
Odds to win Super Bowl: 75-1
Serby says: Same old Ravens: no offense, and Ray Lewis is a year older.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts – 10-6
The skinny: Peyton Manning’s knee was a summer concern, but now the bigger concern is the loss of his trusted longtime center Jeff Saturday (knee). Marvin Harrison returns to find Reggie Wayne as the Go-To Guy.
Over/Under wins: 111?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6-1
Serby says: Health of DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders critical to Tony Dungy’s swarming defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 10-6
The skinny: Defense lost DT Marcus Stroud, but added elite defensive guru Gregg Williams. No. 1 draft DE Derrick Harvey held out, so it may take time before he helps No. 2 draft Quentin Groves bolster pass rush.
Over/Under wins: 101?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 10-1
Serby says: QB David Garrard needs WR Reggie Williams to step up and help RBs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Still not enough firepower.
Tennessee Titans – 9-7
The skinny: No. 1 draft RB Chris Johnson is an electric game-changer who will share the workload with plodding LenDale White.
Over/Under wins: 81?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 35-1
Serby says: QB Vince Young needs to take the next step, but doesn’t have enough weapons.
Houston Texans – 8-8
The skinny: Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson have been injury-prone. Rookie Steve Slaton has fast track to starting RB job.
Over/Under wins: 71?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60-1
Serby says: Youthful defense, anchored by DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye and MLB DeMeco Ryans, still vulnerable in secondary.
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers – 12-4
The skinny: Philip Rivers (knee) has a bounty of big targets as long as TE Antonio Gates (foot) is close to 100 percent so he can wreak havoc with WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson and, of course, LaDainian Tomlinson.
Over/Under wins: 11
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6-1
Serby says: Even if OLB Shawne Merriman (knee) breaks down, there are playmakers galore (CB Antonio Cromartie, OLB Shaun Phillips, FS Eric Weddle, DE Luis Castillo, NT Jamal Williams). And opponents’ 2007 winning percentage was only .422.
Denver Broncos – 8-8
The skinny: Jay Cutler has his diabetes under control, but not Go-To WR Brandon Marshall (one-game suspension). New defensive coordinator Bob Slowik is asking DT Dewayne Robertson to fix porous run defense. Good luck.
Over/Under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 38-1
Serby says: RB Selvin Young is dreaming of a 2,000-yard season. Keep dreaming.
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
The skinny: No. 1 pick RB Darren McFadden adds game-breaking pizzazz, but it’s the defense (new additions CB DeAngelo Hall, SS Gibril Wilson, DT Tommy Kelly) that will keep Al Davis in most games. Just Cover, Baby!
Over/Under wins: 6
Odds to win Super Bowl: 75-1
Serby says: JaMarcus Russell simply isn’t ready, and Javon Walker signing looks like a disaster.
Kansas City Chiefs – 3-13
The skinny: RB Larry Johnson will take a frightful beating behind sorry OL because QB Brodie Croyle scares no one, except maybe TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe.
Over/Under wins: 51 -2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100-1
Serby says: Youth movements take time. Wonder if Herm Edwards will get any more beyond this season.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys – 11-5
The skinny: It’s time for Jessica Romo . . . uh, Tony Romo . . . to win a playoff game. That’s T.O.’s quarterback (sniff, sniff). RB Marion Barber breaks wills and new CB/PR Adam Jones breaks the law. America’s Most Wanted joins America’s Team.
Over/under wins: 11
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9-2
Serby says: Jerry Jones should thank Bill Parcells for building this defense.
Philadelphia Eagles – 10-6
The skinny: Donovan McNabb is healthy again, but can rookie WR DeSean Jackson pick up the slack for productive Kevin Curtis (sports hernia, out until October)? Brian Westbrook is still their Tiki Barber, and don’t sleep on backup Lorenzo Booker, either.
Over/Under wins: 81-2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby says: Friendly schedule features road games at San Francisco, Chicago, Cincinnati and Baltimore.
New York Giants – 8-8
The skinny: Forget about post-Super Bowl complacency; no Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan means no steady, relentless pass rush. And Kevin Boss isn’t Jeremy Shockey, sorry. Don’t expect Road Warriors this season.
Over/Under wins: 9
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12-1
Serby says: Eli Manning will be better as long as Plaxico Burress can stay on the field. But he can’t carry this team for an entire season. Wait ‘Til Next Year.
Washington Redskins – 7-9
The skinny: New head coach Jim Zorn needs Jason Campbell to master his West Coast-style offense or Daniel Snyder might start calling Bill Cowher.
Over/Under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby says: Draft produced enticing weapons (WRs Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly and TE Fred Davis), but they’re not ready to make a difference.
NFC NORTH
Minnesota Vikings – 11-5
The skinny: No one runs on them, and now DE Jared Allen arrives to bolster league’s worst pass defense.
Over/Under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20-1
Serby says: Imagine if Brett Favre had wound up with Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian.
Green Bay Packers – 8-8
The skinny: You’ve heard Aaron Rodgers is the new quarterback, right? RB Ryan Grant will find the sledding tougher without Favre.
Over/Under wins: 9
Odds to win Super Bowl: 15-1
Serby says: Schedule no gimme, so heat’s on GM Ted Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy.
Chicago Bears – 7-9
The skinny: QB Kyle Orton beat out Rex Grossman. Whoooppee. Rookie RB Matt Forte replaces bust Cedric Benson. No receivers in sight.
Over/Under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby says: At least the Windy City has the Cubs and White Sox.
Detroit Lions – 6-10
The skinny: Mike Martz is gone, but Matt Millen isn’t – so Rod Marinelli wants to establish rookie RB Kevin Smith before letting Jon Kitna target WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson.
Over/Under wins: 61?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60-1
Serby says: The secondary thankfully has been revamped (CBs Leigh Bodden and Brian Kelly and SS Dwight Smith). But they’re still the Lions.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints – 10-6
The skinny: Will Jeremy Shockey find happiness with Sean Payton and Drew Brees? Will Marques Colston benefit from his arrival? Will Reggie Kardashian . . . er, Bush . . . please make an impact? Will Deuce McAllister (knee) come back?
Over/Under wins: 81-2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18-1
Serby says: MLB Jonathan Vilma, back in the comfy 4-3, and rookie DT Sedrick Ellis bolster run defense. Now we’ll see if CB Randall Gay can help secondary that allowed a league-high 32 TD passes.
Carolina Panthers – 9-7
The skinny: John Fox wants to bludgeon people with rookie RB Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams running behind rookie RT Jeff Otah. But the whole face of the division changes if Jake Delhomme (elbow) is all the way back, and WR Steve Smith (two-game suspension) stops sucker-punching teammates.
Over/Under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40-1
Serby says: DE Julius Peppers (21?2 sacks last season) has moved to the right side and looks ready to dominate again. That would mean biggest question mark is whether D.J. Hackett or Muhsin Muhammad can step up opposite Smith.
Tampa Bay Bucs – 9-7
The skinny: Jeff Garcia survived the wooing of Favre by Chucky Gruden, but now he’ll need immature WR Antonio Bryant to add youth and size to thirtysomething wideouts Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard.
Over/Under wins: 81-2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby says: RB Earnest Graham gets to show he wasn’t any one-hit wonder.
Atlanta Falcons – 3-13
The skinny: The new head coach is Mike Smith. The new GM is Thomas Dimitroff. The new quarterback is rookie Matt Ryan.
Over/Under wins: 5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200-1
Serby says: Mike Vick and Bobby Petrino: addition by subtraction.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals – 10-6
The skinny: Kurt Warner makes Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin big-time threats. Edgerrin James has one more 1,000-yard season in him.
Over/Under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 45-1
Serby says: Imagine the uproar if the Jets had drafted Matt Leinart.
Seattle Seahawks – 8-7-1
The skinny: With Deion Branch and Bobby Engram sidelined, Matt Hasselbeck’s Go-To Guy when season opens is Nate Burleson. Julius Jones replaces Shaun Alexander.
Over/Under wins: 9
Odds to win Super Bowl: 15-1
Serby says: It’s Mike Holmgren’s last season on the sidelines before DC Jim Mora takes over.
St. Louis Rams – 6-9-1
The skinny: The good news is RB Steven Jackson finally showed up. The bad news is QB Marc Bulger is in for another beatdown if LT Orlando Pace (shoulder) can’t hold up.
Over/Under wins: 61?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60-1
Serby says: New offensive coordinator Al Saunders helps immensely, but a threat opposite WR Torry Holt would help even more.
San Francisco 49ers – 4-12
The skinny: J.T. O’Sullivan is the quarterback. Alex Smith is not. Mike Martz plans on using RB Frank Gore like Marshall Faulk.
Over/Under wins: 51?2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100-1
Serby says: OLB Justin Smith adds more toughness to defense anchored by stud ILB Patrick Willis.