ALBANY – Surging Republican John McCain has moved to within 5 percentage points of Democrat Barack Obama in the true-blue Empire State, a stunning new Siena poll has found.
The Arizona senator trails Obama 46 percent to 41 percent, slashing his deficit from June, when he trailed 51-33. Last month, McCain lagged 47-39.
The close race is particularly dramatic for New York.
Democrats outnumber Republicans five to three in the state, and Democrat John Kerry beat Republican President Bush here by an 18-point margin in 2004.
“These numbers indicate that at the moment, seven weeks out, New York is in play,” Siena Research Institute spokesman Steven Greenberg said. “If New York’s in play in a presidential election, that is never good news for the Democrats.”
The result follows both parties’ conventions and a jam-packed month of campaigning during which McCain selected Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate and Obama passed over primary rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in favor of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.
McCain gained significantly among women and Jews in the poll of 626 likely voters.
He made up all but 2 percentage points (45-43) of his 12-point gap among women last month (48-36), suggesting previously undecided women are breaking for McCain.
Obama has had a reversal of fortunes among Jewish voters. His support has plummeted 35 points, from a lead of 50-37 to a 54-32 deficit in the new poll.
“The momentum is heading our way,” said McCain’s New York campaign chairman, Edward Cox. “We’re within striking distance.”
It’s unclear how much of McCain’s newfound female support has come from former Clinton supporters.
The poll found most white women (55-36) support McCain, as do one in five of those who have a favorable view of Clinton.
A spokesman for New York for Obama cited its success recruiting 400 volunteers to campaign in nearby swing states, like Pennsylvania, as proof of Obama’s grass-roots strength in New York.
“New York is a strong blue state that has rejected the disastrous policies of George Bush and John McCain for seven years and will do it again in November,” Obama spokesman Blake Zeff said in a statement.
Meanwhile, a poll released yesterday in Ohio found McCain leading, Obama, 46-42, there.
Additional reporting by Maggie Haberman