SOMETIMES it is good to be an innocent bystander. By simply waiting on the outskirts for the free agency period to begin, the Mets saw the closer market expand – and, thus with it, their chances of landing one of the ninth-inning arms they desire.
The penny-pinching Padres made an offer that Trevor Hoffman had to refuse and the all-time saves leader did just that, which ended his 16-year marriage with the organization. The Cubs obtained Marlins pseudo-closer Kevin Gregg, then said he was being moved to the eighth inning and that eighth-inning stalwart Carlos Marmol was being promoted to close. That led Chicago to announce publicly that Kerry Wood’s time on the North Side is over.
Now the Mets do not like Hoffman’s stuff, and if you were guessing where Wood would end up, then playing for fellow fireballing Texan Nolan Ryan’s Rangers would be a good bet (he is the team president). But the definitive league-wide availability of Hoffman and Wood only further saturated the closer market. And only gave greater confidence to the Mets that they not only will find a closer this offseason, but find him via free agency, which is their preference because that would allow them to protect their farm system.
The market has become so saturated, in fact, that an AL official regularly in touch with the Mets executives said it was his perception the Mets will wait to see if supply-and-demand take holds and the price falls, especially for the two main free-agent closers, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. As Hardball previously has reported, the Mets’ main targets this offseason are Fuentes and Derek Lowe.
They are continuing to try to address all of their shortcomings, and were one of five teams talking to the White Sox (Atlanta was another) about Nick Swisher before he was traded to the Yankees. Swisher could have played left field this season and potentially served as Carlos Delgado’s successor at first in 2010. For 2009, however, the Mets continue to stress pitching, specifically finding a closer.
To that end, they are monitoring the trade market, though nothing appealing has jumped out.
They spoke briefly to the A’s about Huston Street before he was dealt to the Rockies. But they had questions about his diminishing stuff anyway.
New Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik is working through multiple issues, including finding a manager, and the Mets do not expect him to know before the Winter Meetings if he seriously would consider trading closer J.J. Putz. Houston’s Jose Valverde, the NL save leader, also could be had, but he will be entering his walk year, and Mets officials say they will not give up a significant package for a player who can be a free agent in 12 months.
The Mets have been linked to Bobby Jenks. But the trade price for him – which almost certainly would have to include top prospect Fernando Martinez – makes this a no-go. Plus, Mets officials say they have “red flags” for: a. Jenks’ strikeout rates plummeting from 11.44 per nine innings to 10.34 to 7.75 to 5.55 last year and b. why he is even available.
Or, as an AL official said, “What do the White Sox know about Jenks” that have them offering up a championship-proven, young, cost-effective closer?
One Mets official said, “Unless something changes, I would say the chances of us getting Jenks are close to zero. The price is too high and he isn’t close to the top of our list.”
The other factor working for the Mets is the identity of their closer competition.
The Tigers have multiple needs, including closer, but probably have to cut some payroll. The Cardinals also have several areas to address and believe before too long that either Jason Motte or Chris Perez will be able to handle the closing chores, thus they do not want to spend lavishly on this role. The Brewers bid four years at $40 million in failing to keep Francisco Cordero last offseason and just had closer Salomon Torres announce his retirement. But they almost certainly are losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, so they must re-direct funds to the rotation, as well.
So it is possible the Mets could have the high bids for Fuentes and Rodriguez. There is growing belief in the industry, in fact, that Rodriguez will have to retreat from his five-year, $75 million demands and accept four years. Yet, the Mets still might prefer Fuentes.
K-Rod did set the season record with 62 saves in 2008. But one Mets official had this insight: “When it comes to statistics, we are not basing this decision on save totals; at least not save totals alone.” The Mets will honor, among other items, strikeout-to-walk ratio and on-base percentage against.
And I came across this stat just out of curiosity: Rodriguez registered 1-2-3 frames in a career-low 29.2 percent of his innings (all figures courtesy of Elias). That ranked 151st out of 253 pitchers who worked at least 60 innings in 2008. Fuentes (41.3) was 13th, Wood (38.1) was 28th, Street (38.0), even with diminished stuff, was 29th, and another free agent, Brandon Lyon (37.7) was 31st.
Rodriguez’s stuff is not as electric as in the past, possibly because his high-effort delivery has robbed some life from his arm, though he is just 26. The Mets could wonder if the lack of clean 1-2-3 innings will continue to grow with age now, and if Rodriguez loses more stuff, will he be able to extract himself from difficulty with the same excellence?
The good thing for the Mets is that, considering the current state of the closer market, they might get to be first in line to make that Fuentes vs. K-Rod decision.