(
)
Though there are a large number of young, first-time nominees for acting Oscars this year, yesterday’s list was dominated by a pair of old-school pictures — 12 nods for the newly resurgent “The King’s Speech,” set in the early 20th century, and 10 for the Western remake “True Grit,” which takes place in the 19th.
A close look at the nominations shows weak support for the hipper, very-much-of-the-21st-century “The Social Network,” which trailed with eight nominations, tying with “Inception” (whose director, Christopher Nolan, was bizarrely snubbed and nominated only for his much-criticized screenplay).
83RD ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINEES
GALLERY: Best Actor Nominations
GALLERY: Best Actress Nominations
Unlike “The King’s Speech,” “The Fighter” and even the micro-budgeted “Winter’s Bone,” the Facebook movie came away with only a single acting nomination, that of Jesse Eisenberg for Best Actor. That the actor’s branch, the academy’s largest, decided to pass over Andrew Garfield for Best Supporting Actor in favor of the super-obscure John Hawkes of “Winter’s Bone” is probably not a great sign.
The news was even worse for “Black Swan,” which seemed to be the dark-horse contender in the Best Picture race, ready to cross the finish line if the two top contenders faltered. Darren Aronofsky got a Best Director nomination — but the writer’s branch denied him a Best Original Screenplay nomination. Unfortunately, no film since “Titanic” in 1997 has won without a writing nomination. Even if the snubbed Mila Kunis had been nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category (novice Hailee Steinfeld of “True Grit” got in instead), you can cross this one off your ballot.
As long as we’re crossing off films, there are the five other Best Picture nominees (out of 10) without corresponding Best Director nominations. No Best Picture has won without a Best Director nod since “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989). So, besides Nolan’s “Inception,” say bye-bye to “127 Hours,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Toy Story 3” and “Winter’s Bone.”
Remember, it’s an honor just to be nominated. Just ask Ben Affleck, whose “The Town” was nominated only for Jeremy Renner’s supporting performance.
That leaves us with four actual contenders in the big race.
I don’t think “The Fighter” is going to go the distance. Mark Wahlberg didn’t get a Best Actor nomination, though he was cited as one of the film’s producers. Paramount is likely going to be putting more weight behind “True Grit.”
“True Grit” is a rarity, a nominated remake of a film that didn’t get a nod the first time around. I could find only one precedent for such a picture winning — “Ben-Hur” (1959), whose silent predecessor probably would have been nominated if the motion picture academy existed back in 1925.
The remake is a surprise box-office hit, in a near-moribund genre that’s delivered two Best Picture winners in the 1990s — “Dances With Wolves” and “Unforgiven.” But I don’t think lightning is going to strike again; for one thing, Joel and Ethan Coen were snubbed by the Directors Guild of America, which gives out the award that historically is most predictive of the Oscars.
That leaves us with “The Social Network” vs. “The King’s Speech” rivalry, which has dominated an uneventful race (until lately) since way back in September. An unbroken string of awards from major critics groups seemed to give the edge to “The Social Network,” with a surprise Golden Globes win making an Oscar night victory seem like a virtual fait accompli.
Prognosticators who had given up “The King’s Speech” for dead pronounced it a two-horse race again when the Weinstein Co.’s flick pulled off a shocker of its own, winning last weekend at the Producers Guild of America Awards.
This weekend brings another pair of key awards pointing the way to Oscar night. I think the Directors Guild will go for David Fincher of “The Social Network” on Saturday.
The following evening’s televised Screen Actors Guild Awards will be closely watched for more Oscar clues.
I’m guessing the actors will go with “The King’s Speech” for their ensemble award. I’m predicting it will score an Oscar-night victory in the Best Picture race — as the academy finds a way to honor both of these excellent films by splitting the two top honors.
LOU PICKS
BEST PICTURE
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen “True Grit”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Winning ways
* BEST ACTOR
Plenty of actors have won Oscars playing English kings and people triumphing over physical adversity — Colin Firth does both as the stuttering George VI in “The King’s Speech.” Firth, 50, has been campaigning hard, racking up a Golden Globe and a best actor award from the New York Film Critics Circle, among others. He received his first Oscar nomination last year for “A Single Man,” but lost to Jeff Bridges, nominated again this year for “True Grit.” The Dude, though, is no John Wayne.
* BEST ACTRESS
It’s going to be tough to beat Portman’s performance as a demented ballerina in “Black Swan.” Plus, she’s pregnant by the movie’s choreographer — so even a dopey acceptance speech at the Golden Globes isn’t going to keep her from taking home a gold guy on Oscar night. Annette Bening of “The Kids Are All Right,” her main competition, has to contend with the academy’s biases against older actresses and comedy; good thing for her the Golden Globes have a separate comedy category that she already won.
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I love Geoffrey Rush’s work as a speech therapist in “The King’s Speech,” and he was instrumental in bringing this story to the screen. But I doubt Oscar voters will be able to resist first-time nominee Christian Bale’s deeply hammy performance as a drug-addled boxer in “The Fighter.”
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter could win if “The King’s Speech” sweeps, as could Melissa Leo who’s almost as over-the-top as her on-screen son in “The Fighter.” I think the Oscar will instead go to newcomer Hailee Steinfeld, a 14-year-old who deserves much of the credit for the success of “True Grit” — she has the lead role, even if Paramount has gerrymandered her into the support category. It’s a ploy that frequently works.
lou.lumenick@nypost.com