CHARLOTTE, N.C. — This wouldn’t be as big an upset as AFL Jets over NFL Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III, even with Geno Smith at quarterback instead of Joe Namath.
But it sure seems as if the Jets need to play the kind of Perfect Game Villanova played against Georgetown, in the 1985 NCAA Championship game, Sunday against the Panthers.
Because the Panthers have Cam Newton, and the Jets do not. Because no one runs on Luke Kuechly and the Panthers, and if Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell can’t run, then Smith, who has not thrown a touchdown pass on the road in his past three games, cannot hide from Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson.
Because Santonio Holmes inadvertently disrespected the Carolina secondary. Because Steve Smith is an impossible matchup for any cornerback Rex Ryan can trot out except for Darrelle Revis, and he no longer works for him. Because the Panthers are in a foul mood after being dismantled by Drew Brees and Rob Ryan in New Orleans.
And so — if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly — an upset win over this opponent, an upset win that would keep a rebuilding season alive with two weeks left, almost certainly would convince owner Woody Johnson to keep Ryan on the sidelines to coach his Jets next season.
An upset win over these Panthers, directed by Geno, no longer a robot, I believe would serve as evidence enough that the arrow may not only be pointing up for the rookie quarterback of the Jets, but for the program as well.
Win and he’s in.
Woodyologists will caution that Eric Mangini looked safe at 8-3 before Brett Favre’s arm fell off and the Jets finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs in 2008 following a devastating season-ending loss at home to Chad Pennington, Tony Sparano and the Dolphins.
But if Johnson is looking for an excuse to err on the side of stability and continuity and bring post-Christmas cheer to the men inside his locker room who profess love for Ryan whenever they are asked about him, an improbable road win at Bank of America Stadium should be enough to save Ryan once again.
GM John Idzik has final say on the draft, and in theory on the head coach, but if the owner insists on keeping Ryan, Idzik will recommend keeping Ryan.
All bets are off if his team shows no fight against the Panthers, and the table runs the Jets, and Ryan finishes 6-10 for the second year in a row and misses the playoffs for the third straight time with a third straight December to dismember.
That, of course, is the worst-case scenario for Ryan. Unless, of course, he retains his Coach For Life status with Johnson as his benefactor even though he has had three offensive coordinators in three years and the scapegoat cupboard is bare.
The firing of Ryan was expected to be a fait accompli when the season began, especially after he traded in Mark Sanchez for the Snoopy Bowl, but surprising wins over the Falcons, Patriots and Saints — even though he brought a water pistol to a gunfight — temporary altered the narrative.
The final chapter is about to be written.
Ryan has a chance to become the longest-tenured Jets head coach since Joe Walton, who lasted seven years under the late Leon Hess.
The list of Jets head coaches and their reign in years starting in 1990: Bruce Coslet (4), Pete Carroll (1), Rich Kotite (2), Bill Parcells (4), Al Groh (1), Herm Edwards (4), Mangini (3). The less said about Bill Belichick’s one-day on the job, the better.
Groh finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs before bolting to his dream job at the University of Virginia.
Edwards’ record when Johnson fired him after four seasons was 39-41, with two playoff win in three games. The arrow was pointing down for Edwards, who went 10-22 over his last two years and was being linked to the Chiefs, for whom he had worked in a variety of capacities.
Mangini’s record when Johnson fired him was 23-25, with one playoff appearance, in his rookie season.
Ryan’s record is 40-37 with those two AFC Championship game appearances in his first two seasons.
Parcells was 32-32 in his four years with the Patriots, with one Super Bowl appearance, and 34-30 in his four years with the Cowboys, without a playoff win. He was 29-19 with the Jets, with one AFC Championship game appearance.
Sheldon Richardson, asked how close or how far this team is from being a championship contender, said: “Closer than what people think.”
If the owner agrees with him, win and Rex is in.