PORT ST. LUCIE — A blind faith exists with the Mets, and it really must. After all, they have so many health concerns in so many vital places — from Carlos Beltran to Jose Reyes, Jason Bay to Johan Santana, Chris Capuano to Chris Young — that they must accept on faith that their few small-sample-size success stories from last year were not aberrations.
So, until further notice, R.A. Dickey is a legitimate major-league starter, Bobby Parnell is an effective setup man, and Josh Thole is a capable catcher.
Then there is Angel Pagan, who, as opposed to the rest of the group, is taking a baton from a faded star. What was underplayed, if not downright ignored, in the proper decision to move Beltran to right field is that Pagan no longer is just a placeholder for a guy with bad knees. The Mets need him now to be the center fielder of the present and future.
If you believe that is possible, you accept that Pagan, who turns 30 in July, is a late bloomer, that his baseball IQ and ability to stay healthy have improved in time to accentuate high-end athleticism.
If you don’t, you essentially believe that late bloomers are rare and that the perception of Pagan’s 2010 performance was elevated simply because so much else around the Mets was miserable. Thus, good felt like great by comparison.
After all, Pagan’s .765 OPS was only 12th-best in the majors among qualifying center fielders. Was that indicative of what to expect, or was that a first step on the way to more growth that would turn him from a nice piece into something greater? At a time when the Mets desperately need long-term solutions, is Pagan one of them?
I asked two personnel men what they thought, and the AL one said he liked but didn’t love Pagan, while an NL counterpart graded Pagan higher.
AL personnel man: “We see Pagan as a capable everyday player on a contender, not an above-average one. We like his ability to hit for average and run. However, we’re a little mixed on his defense; scouts would call him a strong-average center fielder, whereas stat guys would call him above to well above average. Offensively, I’d expect around a .740, .750 OPS, which is about 20 points above league average for center fielders.”
NL personnel man: “I think he is a legitimate front-line player. He is a well-rounded guy who can impact the game with his bat, glove and legs. I don’t think his performance is a given, but I wouldn’t be skeptical based on a slower progression.”
The intriguing quirk is that the uncertainty about Pagan is pretty much reflected in the rest of the class of NL center fielders. Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen probably is the best. Is Philadelphia’s Shane Victorino the second best? His .756 OPS was lower than Pagan’s despite playing in a more favorable offensive park.
Los Angeles’ Matt Kemp, St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus and Arizona’s Chris Young have been both scintillating and frustrating, their inconsistencies as overt as their awesome skills.
Colorado’s Dexter Fowler, Milwaukee’s Carlos Gomez and San Diego’s Cameron Maybin each were in Baseball America’s top 75 prospects in 2007 and 2008, but have yet to come close to honoring that status in the majors.
Like Pagan, San Francisco’s Andres Torres and Cincinnati’s Drew Stubbs had positive breakouts in 2010. Torres, though, is now 33. Houston’s Michael Bourn is a speed guy who took a step back last year, and Washington’s Nyjer Morgan is a speed guy who took four steps back, failing in both his play and self-control.
The Cubs’ Marlon Byrd has graduated from fourth outfielder to acceptable center fielder. Meanwhile, in the NL East, the Braves are wondering if Nate McLouth is the 2008 All-Star or the dud they had to send to the minors last year, while the Marlins are trying to convert Chris Coghlan from an infielder to a center fielder.
So there are scenarios in which Pagan could emerge as the best center fielder in the NL East and one of the best in the league. If that occurs — if the switch-hitter truly proves he can stay healthy and upgrade his offense from the right side — he will be better than just a good story from a depressed franchise.
He would be a borderline All-Star and part of the solution for the beleaguered Mets.