After a record 798-week winning streak, NBC’s biggest cash cow, the “Today” show, suddenly looks vulnerable.
The morning TV staple, a half-a-billion-dollar advertising and ratings juggernaut, will face its biggest challenge yet if co-hosts Matt Lauer and Meredith Vieira leave when their contracts expire.
The show passed its last major test — when Katie Couric quit in 2006 — with flying colors, but industry observers and advertisers worry that losing both hosts would be a seismic event.
They predict NBC will have to work harder for every ratings point and ad dollar while trying to keep competitors ABC and CBS at bay in the morning race.
Speculation that America’s most popular morning team is nearing an end already has change-averse advertisers feeling skittish, especially as they strategize about where to commit their ad budgets ahead of the TV networks’ annual “upfronts” in May.
“We’re concerned that having two hosts leave at the same time is very jarring. It would be very concerning especially as we’re about to put a lot of money on that show,” said Maureen Bosetti, Optimedia’s chief broadcast buyer.
“When there is uncertainty about ratings you ask how much investment do you want to make. It will impact some of the decision-making we have to do in the next month or so.”
The four-hour show, which runs from 7a.m. to 11:00a.m., is the longest-running news franchise in TV history and pulled in some $530 million in ad dollars last year.
By comparison, ABC’s “Good Morning America” generated $314 million in its two-hour slot while CBS’s “Early Show” garnered $178.2 million, according to Kantar Media, which tracks media spending.
Any crack in the ratings could open the door to ABC’s “Good Morning America,” which for years has tried to grab the first-place mantle from “Today.” Likewise, CBS has been shaking up its morning line-up, teaming Erica Hill and Chris Wragge.
Neither Lauer nor Vieira would comment on reports yesterday that they won’t re-sign after their contracts end. Vieira’s runs out in September while Lauer’s ends in December 2012. NBC declined to comment.
“Meredith leaving is no problem at all. Matt leaving is something else,” said a news business strategist. ” ‘Today’ is a strong habit, but this means that the audience could taste other things.”
Several industry sources said Lauer may collaborate with former colleague Katie Couric on a potential syndicated show, along with former NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker. The Post broke news of Couric’s potential show on Jan. 27.
One network executive suggested that Ryan Seacrest could sit in for Lauer given that his contract with Comcast is coming up for renewal. Other candidates include “20/20” anchor Chris Cuomo and “Access Hollywood’s” Billy Bush.
Among the names floated to replace Vieira are “Today” colleagues Ann Curry, Natalie Morales and Hoda Kotb. catkinson@nypost.com