Neither rain nor sleet nor gloom of night nor Judge Nelson can deprive Post readers of the annual Serby Mock Draft.
A special thanks to eagle-eyed Dave Razzano, former scout for the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals and currently blogger for Playmaker Mobile; and Jim Sabo, the Ourlad’s scouting guru since 1981, for their expert opinions.
History tonight at Radio City Music Hall … the draft that precedes free agency … the draft that could see as many as eight quarterbacks selected over the first two rounds tonight and tomorrow.
Here’s how my crystal ball sees Round 1 playing out tonight:
1. PANTHERS: QB CAM NEWTON, Auburn
May turn out to be Sham Newton, but a better bet nevertheless to be franchise QB than Jimmy Clausen. “I wouldn’t touch him,” Razzano says. “He’s not accurate. … One read and he takes off running. … He’s real raw. Potential’s a scary word when you’re picking early.” Charismatic, but is he driven? “I think he’s the next Vince Young,” Sabo says. That’s not a good thing.
2. BRONCOS: OLB VON MILLER, Texas A & M
John Fox needs an impact defender, and some have compared this kid to the late Derrick Thomas. Somebody has to get in Philip Rivers’ kitchen. “He doesn’t have the motor,” Razzano says. “You can handle him in the run game. He’s real fast off the ball. I think he’ll be able to be a situational pass rusher at least.”
3. BILLS: DT MARCELL DAREUS, Alabama
Chan Gailey has to stop Rex Ryan’s Ground & Pound twice a year. “There’s no McCoy or Suh in this draft,” Razzano says. “He’s a space eater inside.”
4. BENGALS: WR A.J. GREEN, Georgia
Maybe Carson Palmer will change his mind about bolting once he sees a new go-to guy to replace Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. “He jumps off the tape,” Razzano says. “He’s kinda like a more athletic Calvin Johnson. A bigger Torry Holt.”
5. CARDINALS: CB PATRICK PETERSON, LSU
Can’t-miss bookend to Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie who has drawn comparisons to Charles Woodson.
6. BROWNS: WR JULIO JONES, Alabama
New coach Pat Shurmur needs a No. 1 toy for Colt McCoy. “He’s like a little faster Anquan Boldin,” Razzano says.
7. 49ERS: OLB ROBERT QUINN, North Carolina
Jim Harbaugh seeks club’s first double-digit sacker since Andre Carter in 2001. “A little bit of a tweener,” Razzano says. “Like Calvin Pace.”
8. TITANS: DT NICK FAIRLEY, Auburn
Toting Albert Haynesworth baggage. “It’s hard to find choir boys at that position,” Razzano says. “He’s kinda like a Warren Sapp. He’s gotta be on the move. He jumps through gaps.”
9. COWBOYS: OT TYRON SMITH, USC
New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan lobbies for DE J.J. Watt. Tony Romo lobbies for D’Brickashaw Ferguson-esque right tackle who will transition to the left side at some point. “Outstanding movement, light feet. … He’ll make his living on the left side,” Razzano says.
10. REDSKINS: QB BLAINE GABBERT, Missouri
Mike Shanahan can’t possibly believe in Rex Grossman, can he? Donovan McNabb, they hardly knew ye. “He doesn’t drive the ball down the field,” Razzano says. “Everything’s a dumpoff. When he’s on the move, his ball’s all over the place. I don’t think you can win with the guy.”
11. TEXANS: OLB ALDON SMITH, Missouri
Wade Phillips craves a pass rusher for his 3-4 to take heat off DE Mario Williams. “When I’ve seen him drop, he looks stiff,” Razzano says. “Light in the (butt). At the point of attack he gets handled. He’s a true tweener.” Phillips might see DeMarcus Ware Lite.
12. VIKINGS: QB JAKE LOCKER, Washington
Brett Favre’s retired. Right? RIGHT? “When he takes the ball, drops back, moves outside the pocket and throws it, he looks just like Favre,” Razzano says. “I can see Shanahan taking him.” NOW he tells me.
13. LIONS: CB PRINCE AMUKAMARA, Nebraska
Jim Schwartz has to play twice a year against Aaron Rodgers. “Overrated. He got beat repeatedly over his head and wasn’t very competitive against Oklahoma State,” Razzano says.
14. RAMS: DT COREY LIGUET, Illinois
Fred Robbins is 34, and Steve Spagnuolo needs reinforcements. “This guy is an absolute beast on the inside,” Sabo says.
15. DOLPHINS: C-G MIKE POUNCEY, Florida
For Tony Sparano’s Ground & Pound. “He’s like his (twin) brother (Maurkice),” Razzano says. That’s a good thing.
16. JAGUARS: DE RYAN KERRIGAN, Purdue
Someone has to breathe down Peyton Manning’s neck. “He’s kinda like (Kyle) Vanden Bosch,” Razzano says. “You win with guys like that.” Bill Parcells likes him too.
17. PATRIOTS: DE J.J. WATT, Wisconsin
Reminds Razzano of Steeler Aaron Smith. “Watt just seems like a Belichick kind of guy to me,” Sabo says.
18. CHARGERS: DE CAMERON JORDAN, California
Norv Turner needs to replace DE Jacques Cesaire. “You can’t go wrong with Cameron Jordan,” Razzano says. “A Will Smith type.” The Saint, not the actor.
19. GIANTS: RB MARK INGRAM, Alabama
Jints always grab best available. A little 220-pound insurance for Earth and Wind never hurts. Don’t worry about Ron Dayne Heisman jinx. Or knee. “Steady Michael Turner 1,400-yard guy,” Razzano says. “He’s got some power to him. Good in between the tackles.” Reminds Sabo of Emmitt Smith. “He can make people miss,” Sabo says, “plus he’s tough.”
20. BUCCANEERS: DE DA’QUAN BOWERS, Clemson
Drops only because of knee concerns. Raheem Morris needs pass rusher in worst way with CB Aqib Talib out and CB Ronde Barber on last legs. “Arguably the best player in the draft,” Razzano says. “He’s similar to a Strahan type of guy. He’s not a natural pass rusher, but he’s so active and competitive, he finds a way to the quarterback.”
21. CHIEFS: OT ANTHONY CASTONZO, Boston College
“He’s like Matt Light,” Razzano says. “He’s gonna be a longtime starter.” Can be bookend for LT Branden Albert, or LT if Todd Haley chooses to move Albert to right side.
22. COLTS: OT NATE SOLDER, Colorado
Think Peyton Manning would welcome a 6-foot-8, 319-pound bodyguard? “Is as safe as any pick in the draft,” Razzano says. “He’s gonna play a long time and he’s gonna play early, too.”
23. EAGLES: CB JIMMY SMITH, Colorado
Andy Reid needs a replacement for All-Pro defensive back Ellis Hobbs, so he rolls the dice on big corner with baggage. “Definitely a top-15 talent,” Razzano says.
24. SAINTS: DE-DT CAM HEYWARD, Ohio State
Sean Payton can play Ironhead’s boy inside or outside. “He’s a top-15 type,” Razzano says. “Strong at the point, stays after the quarterback.”
25. SEAHAWKS: QB ANDY DALTON, TCU: It is time for Pete Carroll to groom someone behind Matt Hasselbeck. “He’s gonna be a solid starter,” Razzano says.
26. RAVENS: DT-DE MUHAMMAD WILKERSON, Temple
A raw 315-pounder with pass rush upside figures to intrigue Ozzie Newsome. “He’s a big guy that’s a finesse player,” Razzano says. “A little bit like a Fred Robbins. He’s got some pretty good instincts. When he’s 24, 25, 26, he’ll end up being a pretty good football player.”
27. FALCONS: DE ADRIAN CLAYBORN, Iowa
John Abraham is no spring chicken. “Darnell Dockett,” Razzano says. “Nasty, explosive. I’d take him in a minute.”
28: PATRIOTS: T-G GABE CARIMI, Wisconsin
Bob Kraft rushes into war room to make impassioned plea for The Jewish Hammer. “Probably a right tackle,” Razzano says. Perhaps a bookend for Sebastian Vollmer. Remember, LT Matt Light will be 33 in June.
29. BEARS: OT DEREK SHERROD, Mississippi State
“Kinda like Levi Brown,” Razzano says. “Not an elite athlete but a power run-blocker. He’ll make his living on the right side.”
30. JETS: OLB BROOKS REED, Arizona
Rex Ryan will undoubtedly salivate at the mere sight of 330-pound NT Phil Taylor, but he needs a pass rush demon in the worst way, because how else do you stay better than the Giants for the next 10 years? “Great intangibles,” Razzano says. “High, high motor. You’re gonna get the same thing every down. He’s got a little Kevin Greene in him.”
31. STEELERS: CB BRANDON HARRIS, Miami
Ike Taylor is unrestricted free agent. Dick LeBeau’s cornerbacks have combined for just seven interceptions in the past two seasons. Only 5-9, 191. “Good ball skills,” Razzano says.
32. PACKERS: OLB AKEEM AYERS, UCLA
A bookend for Clay Matthews, although he ran a 4.82 at Combine. “He’s a big-play flash guy,” Razzano says. “He makes athletic plays that get your attention. Not very instinctive.”