Bud Selig publicly stated last week what has been expected for quite a while — that it is inevitable a second wild card in each league will be added as part of a new collective-bargaining agreement and should probably be in place by next season.
What remains in doubt is whether the wild card vs. wild card round will be a one-game play-in to the Division Series or a best-of-three.
Those advocating a one-game showdown essentially do so for two reasons:
1. The TV partners of MLB are not looking for many extra playoff games. They, however, like the ready-made, dramatic storyline and potential ratings of a sudden-death game.
The last three one-game tiebreakers — Rockies-Padres in 2007, White Sox-Twins in 2008 and Twins-Tigers in 2009 — has each been a glued-to-the-TV, one-run game, two of which went to extra innings.
The 2009 game, for example, was won in
12 innings by Minnesota, and not only was the highest-rated regular season game on any network, but actually outrated 11 of the 13 Division Series broadcasts on Turner that year.
2. There are concerns that adding extra playoff games will stretch the postseason calendar later, notably into November, which elevates the chance for bad weather.
Both arguments collapse against doing what’s right, which is making the wild-card round a best-of-three.
Let’s deal with the bad-weather issue first. Mainly, this is about mental tolerance for playing games in November. This is where the most tradition-rich sport again is held to a higher standard.
Consider the lack of uproar, for example, that by the time the 2014 Super Bowl is played outdoors in the New Meadowlands the once traditional January NFL title game will have been played in February for 11 straight years. Is there one less bracket filled out because March Madness has ended in April the last 12 years in a row?
Obviously, bad weather is not a factor for basketball and is an expected element for football. But once it was decided to play baseball in October, particularly late in the month, weather was an issue in cold-weather cities.
If playoff games were played on Oct. 32 and 33 rather than Nov. 1 and 2, would that ease everyone’s mind? Because, really, the difference in temperature between, say, Oct. 29 and Nov. 3 is, what?
According to data collected since the 1800s on weather.com, the mean temperature in Central Park on Oct. 29, for example, is 52 degrees, with an average low of 46. It is 51 degrees with an average low of 45 on Nov. 3.
So if weather is not a factor, the heads of Major League Baseball must do what is right over simply kowtowing again to the TV networks, whose off-day-heavy dictates for the shape of the playoffs already led to the World Series concluding in November the past two years.
And the best-of-three wild-card round is right.
In each of the last five seasons, the AL team that won the wild card has been anywhere from five to eight games better than what would now be the second wild card. It would be unfair to build that kind of cushion over 162 games and then have your fate determined in a single-elimination contest.
In addition, a major reason to add a second wild card is to better reward both division winners and the team with the best record in each league. The idea is that while the wild cards face each other, the division winners will get extra rest while lining up their pitching in a favorable way for once their playoffs begin.
And the team with the best record in each league gets the extra benefit of facing the wild-card-round winner, a club that should be more exhausted and not in line to use its pitching how it wants.
This puts extra emphasis late in the year on trying to win divisions and/or generate the best record, which is the way it should be. But let’s give a scenario to show the problems with a one-game playoff in this structure:
The Yankees and Red Sox are tied after 161 games, but both already know they are in the playoffs as either the AL East champ or first wild card. Still, they want to win that last game to avoid the peril of the wild-card round, so both teams start their aces in Game 162. The Red Sox win with Jon Lester, the Yankees lose with CC Sabathia and now the Yankees are a wild card.
Meanwhile, the White Sox have known they are the second wild card for a week and have rested players, notably ace John Danks, to start Game 1 of the wild-card round. So though Chicago has the inferior record to the Yankees — between five and eight games worse if recent trends continue — it is better situated to play a one-game playoff than the Yankees, who have the better record and did the right thing by trying to win Game 162.
The team with the better wild-card record should not be punished for trying to win a division by being at the mercy/whim of one game. At least a best-of-three provides some chance to survive being at a disadvantage for one day.
Look, if the late ending date is really worrisome, then here is a way to conclude in October and gain a fringe benefit in July: First, start the season a tad earlier — say, March 27 or so, to gain a few days on the front end.
Then have doubleheaders on each of the four Sundays in July. Leave it up to the home team to decide if it is better for its gate to play a traditional twinbill or day-night. If you are worried about rainouts of doubleheaders in July causing future schedule nightmares, don’t; only seven total July games on any day of the week have been postponed over the last six years.
July has the natural respite of the All-Star break to help keep teams fresh through a month filled with doubleheaders. But teams should also be allowed to expand to 30-man rosters for the month to physically handle July better.
And the fringe benefit of expanding rosters is 1) fan bases of losing teams would get to see some top prospects in midseason, and 2) winning teams would get to show off their best prospects against major-league competition in anticipation of the
July 31 trade deadline.
That would bring greater intrigue and excitement to July by doing what is right with the postseason calendar.
joel.sherman@nypost.com