LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The slowest bunch of horses in 20 years are set to go in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, turning America’s greatest horse race into a bettor’s dream or, depending on your luck, nightmare.
The fastest two horses going in are Archarcharch, the Arkansas Derby winner, and Nehro, who finished a neck behind him. Both received a humble Beyer speed figure of 98.
No Derby field in my records ever sent a herd of 20 candidates to the gate with a top figure below 100.
Compare: Big Brown went in 2008 with a 106 Beyer off his Florida Derby rout. Street Sense had a 102, Barbaro 103, Smarty Jones 107, Funny Cide 110, War Emblem 112, etc.
So, this year’s horses are a very modestly performed group, but happily for everyone from owner to horseplayer, they don’t pay off according to the clock. Who gets there first gets the million-dollar prize.
Super Saver last year sported a 98 before his Derby triumph. Mine That Bird had a dismal 80, Giacomo 95.
Still, the Beyer figures are worth serious study because their top half-dozen figure horses have a remarkable record over the years of searching out the Derby winner (11 winners the past 14 years), many at long odds.
The figures this year indicate the Derby has no super horse, and therefore an unlikely Triple Crown winner.
In addition to Archarcharch and Nehro, the top Beyer six are rounded out with Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top, first and second in the Santa Anita Derby with a 97, Toby’s Corner, who won the Wood Memorial, and Pants On Fire, the Louisiana Derby winner, each on 94.
That list is startling for those not on it — namely the two likely Derby favorites, Dialed In and Uncle Mo. Dialed In scored a very low 93 Beyer off a slow Florida Derby while Uncle Mo checked in with a 92 in his shocking Wood Memorial defeat.
Uncle Mo might be the only colt in the race who could turn conventional opinion on its head. A superstar 2-year-old who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a spectacular swoop, he need only recapture the glory of 2010 to blitz this Derby.
His loss in the Wood Memorial is a throw-out. The best of them lose sometime. The real bother is his physical condition, battling a gastrointestinal inflammation for the past three weeks. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, said yesterday he is still being medicated.
That’s the kind of stuff to give a serious horseplayer pause. But Pletcher and owner Mike Repole insisted that Uncle Mo was getting stronger every day and is now close to concert pitch. His jockey, John Velazquez, said he was “thrilled” with Mo’s five-furlong drill.
“He’s a much better horse than when we left Belmont two weeks ago,” Pletcher said. “What makes him successful is that he has great mechanics, natural ability and a great mind.”
Repole chimed in: “I think he is by far the best horse in the race, I’m not afraid of Dialed In or any horse.”
Uncle Mo looms the key to the Derby. If the 2010 Uncle Mo shows up Saturday, he could turn it into a one-horse spectacle. If the 2011 Uncle Mo fails to fire again, all the Derby’s roses are up for grabs.