The last news most Americans noticed out of Yemen was great — last month’s drone-killing of terror kingpin Anwar al-Awlaki. But the quieter news is ugly: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is on its way to building a ministate that recalls pre-9/11 Afghanistan.
Offing Awlaki dealt a major blow to AQAP. The American-born Yemeni was a PR specialist effective in recruiting and inspiring “lone wolf” terrorists like the Fort Hood shooter and the Christmas Day and underwear bombers.
The Sept. 30 order to assassinate him was a well-deserved notch on President Obama’s national security belt, right next to Osama bin Laden and Moammar Khadafy. And kudos for ignoring the ACLU and others who are kvetching over the pre-trial execution of a US citizen (although Obama this week put some limitations on CIA drone executions of US enemies).
But AQAP’s operational bigwigs are still prospering –strengthening their hold over Yemen’s south.
We launched one of the longest wars in our history because the 9/11 Islamists had set up a base in Afghanistan. Ten years later, Islamist fighters from across the Muslim world are converging on the regions around Zinzibar and Jaar, the Yemeni cities under AQAP control. Tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons are flowing in. Bearded men pick who comes in and who goes out.
True, AQAP’s had a presence there for years. But the West had some control because President Ali Abdullah Saleh would tip us off periodically on the whereabouts of a terrorist bigwig or two in return for cash and other dividends.
(Some suspect that Saleh long kept word of Awlaki’s location in reserve. And indeed, a much-weakened Saleh returned to Yemen in late September after recuperating from an assassination attempt — and, presto: Awlaki was “found.”)
And Saleh’s now ruling on borrowed time. Meanwhile, we’re losing the sympathies of America’s natural Yemeni allies — the pro-democracy youths who rebelled against him last winter and who are now furious over a deal worked up by a Saudi-controlled alliance, the Gulf Cooperation Council. The pact, backed by America, would usher Saleh out of power while granting him immunity from future prosecution.
Saleh still won’t leave without international guarantees that he won’t be prosecuted. Last month, the UN Security Council passed a resolution endorsing the GCC deal — but didn’t spell out the immunity clause. Nevertheless, this year’s Nobel peace laureate, Yemeni activist Tawakul Karman, denounced the resolution and called on Saleh to be tried for various crimes.
Karman and her fellow would-be democrats are justifiably angry at the Saudis and at us for agreeing to overlook past crimes — but what about Yemen’s future?
Right now, we won’t even endorse elections. The democracy advocates are disorganized. Established parties — Baathists, Communists, Nasserites — are no good. Even worse, they’re no match for Islah, Yemen’s version of the Muslim Brotherhood. If elections were held today, the Islamists would win hands down, likely gutting the CIA’s ability to conduct operations like the one that killed Awlaki.
But not to worry: Even with Saleh out, his loyalists won’t allow an election, anyway. Instead, we have a stalemate. In the capital, Sana, forces led by renegade Gen. Ali Moshin control one city zone, followers of tribal leader Hamid al-Ahmar control another and Saleh loyalists a third. All factions are armed to the teeth and ready for battle.
A Western diplomat who often travels to Yemen says that as long as this stalemate remains, the AQAP Islamists — who have honed their organizational skills in remote mountains for decades — are best positioned to benefit.
“And the stalemate won’t be resolved as long as Saleh is in the country,” the diplomat told me.
After early hopes for a Yemeni Spring, the future now looks bleak. The CIA is doing great work there, but the political mess may push our clandestine warriors out of the country — potentially forcing us to one day return there with much more manpower.