ORCHARD PARK — Welcome to the AFC East playoffs.
The Jets begin a November stretch that includes three divisional games when they face the surprising Bills today. The outcomes of today’s game and next week’s with the Patriots will let us know if the Jets are still contenders in the division, ready to chase the wild card, or on playoff life-support.
Coach Rex Ryan’s crew swears they’ve fixed the problems that plagued them early in the year. Today, we find out. At 4-3, this is a pivotal game. The Bills and Patriots are tied atop the division with 5-2 records. The Jets can’t afford to fall further behind.
“I don’t think [the division] is flipped on its head. There’s a lot of football left to be played. We plan on being at the top of the division when it’s all said and done,” Ryan said. “We’re not worried about, ‘Let’s wait until week whatever, 12 or 13.’ We’re ready to make our move right now, and that’s our intention.”
The Jets have won five of the last six meetings with the Bills and have not lost at Ralph Wilson Stadium since 2007. But these are not the same old Bills.
“They’re playing at a high level right now,” Jets safety Jim Leonhard said. “You look and not a whole lot has changed, but they’re making plays, they’re flying around, they’re playing with great energy. Obviously the coaching changes they’ve made have helped the organization out. They’re feeling pretty good about themselves. They’re definitely a team that you can’t look past. They’re beating up on some pretty good teams. You can’t take them for granted.”
Here’s how the The Post sees today’s game breaking down:
MARQUEE MATCHUP
Bills RB Fred Jackson vs. Jets LBs David Harris, Bart Scott and Calvin Pace. Jackson is having a monster season. He has rushed for 100 yards in five games this season, the most in the NFL. Jackson has been as good receiving as he has running. His 1,074 yards from scrimmage are second in the NFL.
The Jets say their run defense is not as bad as the numbers indicate. It’s time for them to show it. The linebackers will be key because Jackson has broken tackles all season. The linebackers can’t let him get into the secondary.
BOUNCEBACK FROM BYE
Ryan’s Jets have been terrible after the bye, losing in both of his seasons as head coach. Ryan still gave the players six consecutive days off. The Jets amped up the speed in practice this week to shake off the rust.
“I feel good about our preparation,” Ryan said. “I feel good about where we are, and obviously, it’s a big challenge going to Buffalo, where they are undefeated and tied for first in our division, so they’re a good football team. This will be a big challenge whether you’re coming off a bye or not, but I feel good about our plan. Obviously, my history is not good.”
TAKE YOUR PICK
Mark Sanchez has cut down on turnovers recently, throwing just one interception in his last three games. He needs to be careful against the Bills. Buffalo has 14 interceptions, the most in the NFL. The Bills take a lot of chances on defense, which the Jets hope could open some things up to take chances downfield.
ROAD WEARY
The Jets are 0-3 away from MetLife Stadium. They point to who they have played on the road as the main reason why they’ve struggled. They also did not have center Nick Mangold for two of those games.
Getting that first road win is not going to be easy today. The Bills are 4-0 at home and averaging 34.3 points a game in their three at Ralph Wilson Stadium (they played one game in Toronto). This game has taken on a playoff-like feel in Buffalo because the Bills have been down for so long. The Bills will wear all-white uniforms at home for the first time in 25 years, and the team has asked fans to wear white to the game.
WILD THING
No one has to tell the Jets what Brad Smith can do. The longtime Jet left for Buffalo over the summer. Now, the Jets have to try to stop him. Smith has seen limited duty in the Wildcat for the Bills, but the Jets expect a heavy dose today.
Even if the Bills don’t run it a ton, Jets defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said the threat of the Wildcat already has taken its toll.
“It might not be that effective, but what effect did it have on the opposing staff and defense?” Pettine said. “Did we have to spend extra meeting time on it? Absolutely. Did we spend extra time gameplanning just for the Wildcat? Absolutely. Will we get two or three plays of it? Maybe. Will we get 10? I don’t know, but that’s something you’ll never know the effect it had because it’s like a body-blow. There is a hidden value to it.”
GO GREENE
The Jets have bullied the Bills over the last few years. Under Ryan the Jets have rushed for 273, 276, 249 and 318 yards against the Bills. If there’s ever a day for Ground and Pound, it is today. Shonn Greene broke the 100-yard barrier against the Chargers. The Jets need him to do it again.
brian.costello@nypost.com
COSTELLO’S CALL
The Jets have had trouble stopping the run this season.
That feeds right into Fred Jackson’s hands. Throw in a rabid crowd at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and the Jets are in trouble.
BILLS 35, JETS 17