NATHAN’S FAMOUS: The Mets plan to make finding a new closer their top priority — apart from the Jose Reyes negotiations — this offseason as they trim payroll, and free agent Joe Nathan (above) is a viable option. (Getty Images)
Milwaukee — The five-time defending NL East champion Phillies already have addressed their closer need by going to the top of the market with Jonathan Papelbon. Atlanta, Florida and Washington all are set for bold moves and payroll increases.
By comparison, the Mets appear to have all but gone out of business. But general manager Sandy Alderson and his lieutenants have been devising strategies based on three scenarios:
1) Retaining both David Wright and Jose Reyes. 2) Retaining just one. 3) Retaining neither.
No matter how it plays out, Alderson must deliver a roster at around $100 million. So this becomes a puzzle: How do the Mets shed approximately $40 million in payroll while assembling a team that, at minimum, will be competitive enough that the franchise does not keep hemorrhaging attendance at Citi Field?
It is an onerous endeavor that Alderson and assistant John Ricco will continue working on at this week’s GM Meetings. Still, the Mets already have established parameters. For example, in the unlikely circumstance they keep Wright and Reyes, they almost certainly would look for less-expensive alternatives for the arbitration-eligible Mike Pelfrey and Angel Pagan.
The words used most often by Mets officials to describe Pelfrey and Pagan are: “bridge pieces.” Relatively cost-effective players who are holding spots until better options arrive. In other words, the Mets feel no long-term allegiance to either Pelfrey or Pagan.
Also, regardless of what scenario transpires with Wright and Reyes, the only area to which the Mets plan to allocate a significant part of their limited offseason funds is closer. Which is fascinating since Alderson is viewed as a stats-driven executive — the type generally disinclined to over-emphasize a ninth-inning reliever.
Yet, Mets execs tell me closer is the lone area where the Mets are willing to give more than a one-year contract, though two years, perhaps with an option, is probably the furthest they would go. Alderson is determined to create long-term financial flexibility, and thus wants to avoid serious multi-year commitments, particularly at a time when the Mets are not legitimate contenders.
And despite what they say publicly, the Mets consider themselves two years away from having the depth of talent to contend for an extended period. That is a major factor working against the re-signing of Reyes. He would be putting two more seasons of wear and tear on his dubious legs before the team is ready to potentially win. That will mitigate how much the Mets are willing to offer beyond their obvious questionable funds.
As for Wright, the Mets definitely will listen to trade offers. But the likelihood is they will not be offered enough in return to make losing him from the lineup worthwhile, especially since they sense it would also further infuriate their fans. With the Citi Field fences moving in, the Mets will hope Wright fully regains his power bat to bolster his value and make a possible July trade worthwhile.
So in this most probable scenario — with Wright and without Reyes — what can the Mets do? No matter what they are prioritizing the pen, so Papelbon could hurt them beyond his presence in the NL East. No closer had received a four-year contract since Francisco Cordero and Joe Nathan did after the 2007 season. But Papelbon, who turns 31 next week, got four years at a closer-record total of $50 million. That very well could raise the prices all around and take someone the Mets had targeted, such as Nathan, beyond their means.
My hunch is they are budgeting about $8 million-$10 million for late-inning relief and certainly are considering if it is best to share that total between two relievers with some closer pedigree — say, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps (as long as the Twins do not offer Capps Type-A free agent arbitration). The idea would be to have two men battle for the job with the loser getting the eighth inning, and Bobby Parnell, Manny Acosta and Tim Byrdak serving as the other main pen pieces.
In theory, the Mets’ rotation could be set with Johan Santana, Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee. But with the volatility involving Santana, they want to add a veteran, but have made it clear it will not be Chris Capuano if he insists on a two-year deal. They want to structure a deal like the one they had in 2010 with Capuano — a relatively low base salary with incentives based on starts and/or innings. Someone such as Bartolo Colon or Jeff Francis might go for that.
With a limited budget, the Mets will be hard-pressed to find the front-line defensive center fielder they want to replace Pagan, hardly a Terry Collins favorite. But they could reunite with a strong glove man such as Endy Chavez as a fourth outfielder to push Pagan while providing defense in the outfield wherever needed (think: for Lucas Duda). With the Mets’ tight wallet, even someone such as Coco Crisp could be beyond their grasp.
In theory, the Mets can go with the same catching group as last year of arbitration-eligible Ronny Paulino plus Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. But the Mets also can see if the Reds offer arbitration to Type-A free agent Ramon Hernandez, who was signed as an amateur by Oakland when Alderson was the GM. Of course, even Hernandez might be out of their price range.
This is life with the Mets these days. While the rest of the NL East opens the vault, Alderson has to slash the payroll roughly 30 percent while attempting to form a competitive team. It is quite a puzzle.