MILWAUKEE — These are the Bizarro GM Meetings in which the Marlins are chasing the top of the free-agent market, the Nationals are considered financial stalking horses and the Yankees are hardly making a ripple.
Brian Cashman arrived to the Pfister Hotel on Monday, waved to the media and headed to his room, making him just about the only executive not encircled by multiple reporters upon checking in. It certainly was a first for a Yankees general manager at this gathering.
This reflected a sense that with the retention of CC Sabathia the Yankees did their major offseason shopping. Cashman wants to project that image. One of his pet sayings is “under-promise and over-perform.” So Cashman is downplaying his aggressiveness, insisting the Yankees’ interest in obtaining a starter will not motivate an overpay in money (for a free agent) or in prospects (in a trade).
But he also acknowledges when it came to their rotation, the Yankees “walked a tightrope last year, and when you walk a tightrope you can fall off.” The Yankees expected nothing from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, and received 311 innings and a 3.82 ERA combined.
“We had a lot of luck that everything worked out,” Cashman said.
Cashman accepts the chances of going into the minor-league contract bin and being that lucky once more is not strong: “I don’t want to do that again.”
Plus, the Yankees have to wonder how much quality and quantity they can anticipate in 2012 from Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett.
So the Yankees — despite their silence — are determined to lower the risk for next season by finding a veteran who they feel relatively certain can make 30 starts in above-league-average fashion even as Cashman continued to insist “when you get into the thought of that you must do something, you make mistakes.”
He met yesterday with Bob Garber, the agent for Roy Oswalt and C.J. Wilson. But the Yankees are worried about back injuries, in particular, which would limit their interest in Oswalt. They do not want to offer a six-year contract to Wilson, and one AL executive whose team is interested in the lefty said, “there will be a bunch of teams in at four years, a few at five and so someone will go to six and sign him.”
A Yankees official said: “Our scouts love [Wilson], but we love him in a certain way and it is not at what the market is likely to bring him. So I don’t think we sign him.”
Wilson has asked to visit the Yankees in New York some time before the Dec. 5 Winter Meetings, and the club is considering the possibility.
Mark Buehrle’s 11 straight years of 200-plus innings are attractive. Edwin Jackson has made 158 starts the past five years, the 11th most in the majors. However, Burnett has made 157, and Jackson shares too many similarities with Burnett — big arm, small aptitude — to make the Yankees go too far for the righty.
“[Jackson] is going to be the kind of guy because of durability, still being relatively young (28) and having a perceived upside that is going to end up with a four-year contract for more than $40 million when everyone knows he shouldn’t get that,” an NL GM said. “But [Scott] Boras is his agent and he will.”
Trade candidates such as the White Sox’s John Danks, the A’s Gio Gonzalez and the Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez are all lefties with an innings-eating history — or better.
The Angels are working hard on Wilson. They already have Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana, so if Wilson is signed they could move a starter. It won’t be Weaver, who signed long-term late last season. And an Angels official said Haren would not be moved to address offensive issues.
That leaves the Santana, who is due $11.2 million in 2012 with a club option for $13 million in 2013 ($1 million buyout). In three of the past four years, the righty, who turns 29 in January, has pitched at least 219 innings with an ERA of 3.92 or lower.
On trading a starter, new Angels GM Jerry DiPoto said, “You can’t ever have enough, but you do have to be aware of the possibilities.”
Suitors for Reyes need to give six
The Perception of officials interested in Jose Reyes is that his goal is to get a contract totaling no less than $100 million. An executive whose team has called on Reyes said he also thought contract length was an issue.
“I think he wants as long a deal as possible,” the executive said. “He knows what is going on with his legs. He does not want to do three or four years and then turn around and have to try to sign long-term again in his thirties with more wear and tear on his legs. I really think he would take, say, a six-year deal at less money per year than a three- or four-year deal where he could be paid close to $20 million a season.”
So that six-year, $90 million deal the Marlins have offered, according to Foxsports.com, has about the right length but not enough dollars — at least not to sign Reyes this soon in the process. In fact, a Mets official told The Post yesterday they have received no indication from the Reyes camp that any negotiations are at a serious stage right now.
The Mets also continue to believe that once Reyes receives an offer he finds enticing the Mets will be alerted so as to have a shot to match or outdo it. However, Mets officials have privately indicated they can’t imagine offering Reyes more than five years and may not even be willing to exceed four.
The largest contract ever given a shortstop was the 10-year, $252 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with Texas. A-Rod became a third baseman during that contract, however, when he was traded to the Yankees. So the largest contract given to a “pure” shortstop was the 10-year, $189 million Derek Jeter garnered from the Yankees.
The Reyes camp knows he will not get near those years or total dollars. But there is a quest to top the $18.9 average value, which is one reason I have consistently speculated that a deal for six years at $19 million per season — $114 million in total — feels like the number that gets it done for Reyes in terms of length and average value.
Will any team go there? As we see annually in free agency, the numbers tend to go higher than anticipated. Already, for example, clubs in need of closers are talking about the sticker price, particularly in the aftermath of Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50 million deal with the Phillies. The belief is C.J. Wilson will get a six-year contract, and when I asked an AL personnel head if Reyes will get six year if Wilson does, he said, “Absolutely.”