The death of Kim Jong Il, the brutal Stalinist dictator who achieved his goal of turning North Korea into a nuclear power, spreads a cloud of uncertainty over the northwestern Pacific Rim.
Chief among the questions is whether Kim’s unknown son and anointed successor, Kim Jong Un, has the support of his nation’s military — without which he cannot maintain power.
But this much is clear: Kim’s unexpected passing presents a substantial threat to regional stability — and has implications for US foreign and military policy.
Little is known about the latest Kim to rule over the world’s most isolated nation — not even his true age, believed to be 28.
But chances for an “Asian Spring” uprising that might oust Pyongyang’s repressive government are all but nil.
The country is so politically and culturally isolated that social media do not exist. North Koreans remain almost totally unaware of the outside world.
Sure, the New York Philharmonic shamed itself with a 2008 visit that was more propaganda coup than cultural opening — performing exclusively for the ruling elite.
Maybe the orchestra can rush over and play a dirge at Kim’s funeral — with a eulogy delivered by the terminally clueless Pyongyang-apologist Jimmy Carter.
But the fact remains that North Korea is the Far East’s most destabilizing presence, potentially threatening not just South Korea — with which it technically remains at war — but Japan, as well.
Yes, North Korea is an utterly impoverished nation, lacking any capacity for sustained military aggression.
But it is also erratically pugnacious, an almost-literal loose cannon in a region marked by fragile national economies.
And the danger extends beyond the Far East — now that North Korea has gone nuclear and is exporting nuclear and related technology to other rogue states, like Syria, Iran and Burma.
China — which has plenty of its own problems with Pyongyang — could prove to be the best hope for stability, given that it’s bankrolling North Korea’s failed economy.
Both Beijing and South Korea want whatever happens next to happen slowly; a sudden collapse of the Hermit Kingdom would have enormous negative implications for both nations.
But regional engagement would also require Pyongyang’s participation. And that can’t happen absent the installation of a successor regime willing to act in the best interests of its people.
History suggests that’s not in the cards.