We were consumed by superpowers this offseason.
We wondered why the Yankees and Red Sox weren’t spending, why the Angels and Rangers were, and if the Dodgers and Mets ever would again. We also wondered — when it came to super power — about Ryan’s Braun.
The influence of the new collective bargaining agreement, burgeoning local TV dollars and the opening of a stadium in Miami served as the catalyst for which teams were and weren’t financially aggressive.
The Yankees, for example, retained CC Sabathia then refused to invest any other long-term dollars. They have become determined to work toward being under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold in 2014, such are the benefits derived by doing so in the new collective bargaining agreement.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, may fetch $2 billion or more in a sale despite the present plight of the franchise. Prospective buyers see the potential beyond the devastation caused by current owner Frank McCourt. The organization’s $40-million-a-year local TV rights expire after the 2013 season, and the expectation is that the next deal will exceed $200 million annually.
To satisfy his bankruptcy-approved settlement agreement, McCourt must pick a new owner by April 1 and the deal has to be closed by April 30. So in just a matter of months, the Dodgers likely are to vault into the superpower realm — a class of teams that lurk as arguably the most worrisome problem for the sport going forward.
At the beginning of this century, there was just one superpower. Then the Red Sox joined the Yankees. The Phillies were next to the party. Now, fueled by local TV dollars, the Angels and Rangers have separated from the pack. The Dodgers can be next. The Cubs, run now by someone who knows a lot about being with a superpower, Theo Epstein, also loom. Maybe one day the Mets will even get their act together.
Despite bad public relations on the issue, the majors actually have enjoyed good parity. For example, 13 different teams have participated in the past 10 World Series, the same number as in the past 10 Super Bowls; and 23 of the 30 teams have made the playoffs in the past seven years. Possibly as early as this season, the MLB postseason field is going to expand from eight to 10 — still the smallest of the major North American team sports.
Nevertheless, the number of superpowers also has expanded. So rather than just the Yankees almost always filling one of eight slots, what if we reach the point where half the 10-team field is regularly composed of superpowers? As for the short term, camps begin opening this week, and for those that have been distracted elsewhere — learning the salsa, perhaps, thanks to Victor Cruz — here is how Hardball sees how five items from the offseason will impact the coming year:
1. A TILTING OF THE FIELD
Make a list of the majors’ best teams and it will be dominated by AL squads. Part of it is about following the money — the majority of superpowers are in the AL. But it also is about the DH.
AL teams more easily can gamble long term on corner players such as Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder because they have the DH to fall back on as the players age. The only two contracts in excess of $150 million ever given to NL players are for athletic, middle-of-the-diamond stars Matt Kemp and Troy Tulowitzki.
“Because of the DH, it is apparent NL clubs cannot sign top offensive players beyond 5-6 years,” an NL GM said.
The result is a more even distribution of talent and, thus, a wide open NL. Meanwhile, the AL is so top heavy that it would be a shock if the four or five playoff teams do not come from among the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Tigers (owner Mike Ilitch has shown a willingness to tap into his fortune to pursue a champion) and the Rays (poor in funds, high in baseball IQ). Though keep an eye on the Blue Jays as a rising power, mainly because of a rich farm system and untapped financial resources.
2. RELIEF STRATEGY
The Cardinals and Rangers bulked up their bullpens during last season, and that was a significant reason why they played in the World Series. A copycat strategy ensued this offseason, fueled also by the reality that relievers cost a lot less than starters and high-end position players.
Where teams could they tried to get a redundancy of pitchers with closer histories. The Mets, for example, with little to spend, bought Frankie Francisco and Jon Rauch and traded for Ramon Ramirez. Boston replaced Jonathan Papelbon with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. Toronto acquired Sergio Santos and Francisco Cordero. In fact, nine teams will begin spring with at least two relievers who saved 15 or more games sometime in the past two years.
“The trend that stood out the most to me this offseason was the relative number and overall affordability of experienced bullpen arms,” an AL GM said. “The obvious with the prices dropping were [Ryan] Madson and Cordero, but the not-so-obvious like Chad Qualls (Phillies) and Takashi Saito (Diamondbacks) also were part of what were a lot of good additions at affordable prices league wide.”
In fact, teams are now going way beyond closing pedigree or even traditional lefty-righty matchups in assembling pens. With the availability of more precise data to detail opposing hitters’ weaknesses, many clubs are trying to diversify as much as possible so that they have specialists within specialists: The righty slider expert, for example, to deal with innings in which two righties who can’t handle that pitch are due.
“I don’t know if relievers are getting better,” an AL assistant GM said, “but we are getting better at using them to their true strengths.”
3. THE THIRD DEGREE
Pujols, Fielder and Jose Reyes were the only free agents to sign nine-figure deals this offseason. For more than half-a-billion dollars in total, the Angels, Tigers and Marlins bought star power and firepower. However, each team also is putting its defense or chemistry at risk.
To accommodate Pujols, the Angels have asked the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Mark Trumbo to dabble at third base as a way to try to keep his bat in the lineup. More intriguing is the across-the-diamond migration of Miguel Cabrera. There is a legacy of players getting too big/immobile and transitioning from third to first such as Tony Perez, Harmon Killebrew, Jason Giambi and Jim Thome.
But in major league history, no one has played at least 100 games at first base in each of four straight years (Cabrera has played 143-plus) then in a subsequent season played more than 100 games at third (thanks to Elias Sports Bureau).
Cabrera has not played third regularly since 2007, when he was 24. One of Cabrera’s strengths has been durability. He has played the second-most games in the majors over the past eight years. Now he shuffles to a more demanding position that he never played particularly well as an older, less-agile player, which will put his health at greater peril. It certainly worsens Detroit’s corner defense since Fielder’s last name is ironic.
“I’m really interested to see how Detroit’s infield defense looks with Cabrera and [Jhonny] Peralta on the left side along with Prince receiving the throws at first base,” an AL executive said.
Tigers manager Jim Leyland insists he is fully committed to the transition. But what does he do if Cabrera simply can’t handle the position or can’t stay healthy there? At least Leyland has the benefit of a player, in Cabrera, who has professed a public willingness to cede his old position to a new, expensive addition (Fielder).
In other words, not exactly the welcome Hanley Ramirez gave Reyes in South Florida. Whatever the problems between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, especially in their early Yankees union, Rodriguez embraced going to third because he so badly wanted out of Texas and in with the Yankees. But the Marlins’ situation is akin to moving Jeter since Ramirez is the incumbent, and Ramirez and Reyes already have a touchy relationship. And rather than the laid-back Joe Torre, Miami has the combustible Ozzie Guillen as its new manager and referee.
4. CBA FALLOUT
Teams still are trying to fully digest all the ramifications of the CBA that was ratified in late November. Some of the big issues — moving the Astros to the AL, changing the compensation rules for free agency — have been heavily discussed. But there is one element that has gotten little attention, but should be a factor in spring training.
Article XX(B) free agents — essentially most free agents who have played at least six major league seasons — who have signed minor league contracts this offseason must either be put on the major league roster five days before the regular season or be given a $100,000 bonus to go to the minors and the right to opt out of their contract on June 1. The union insisted on this as a way of keeping players who should be in the majors from being parked in the minors.
It is unlikely many — if any — teams will agree to the $100,000 bonus. Thus, in late March, you can expect a layer of player movement that did not exist previously.
The Mets already are deploying a strategy built around this new rule. They had been considering a bunch of lefty-hitting outfielders such as Rick Ankiel. But they stopped their pursuit, in part, because they believe a few will become available just before the regular season, at a time when the Mets would know for sure if that is an area in which they should invest. Ankiel, for example, signed a minor league deal with the Nationals. If Washington decides to go with super prospect Bryce Harper, it might not carry Ankiel or pay him $100,000 additionally to wait in the minors as insurance.
Others who fall under this umbrella include Russell Branyan, Miguel Batista, Aaron Cook, Kevin Millwood, Carlos Guillen, Juan Cruz, Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Jeff Francis and Vicente Padilla.
5. YOUNG GUNS
It used to be that teams protected young, talented rotation arms more than any other commodity. But of the 21 pitchers 25 or under who started at least 25 games last year, six were traded this offseason, including Michael Pineda, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Mat Latos.
Several executives said they see this not as an aberration, but part of a trend in which teams will give up big return packages for high-end, low-cost arms who are years from free agency. As one NL GM said, “There was a clear demonstration that years of control, not sexiness of the name, is the biggest factor in trade value.”
joel.sherman@nypost.com