Even if he makes it past the widely publicized federal investigation of his campaign finances, Comptroller John Liu is in for a rough ride if he intends to stay in elective office.
Sources say the Campaign Finance Board isn’t likely to hand over public matching funds for his next run without a fight.
“They’ll move heaven and earth not to pay him,” said one source with insight into how the CFB operates.
Liu raised more than $2 million for what was to be the race to succeed Mayor Bloomberg, and had $1.6 million left as of mid-January.
With his campaign treasurer and one of his contributors facing federal charges of trying to scam the matching-funds system, most political observers are betting Liu will abandon the mayoral contest and try to hold on to the job he’s got.
Despite all his problems, he’d be a formidable candidate for re-election if the feds don’t nail anyone else.
The embattled comptroller shouldn’t anticipate any further help from the city’s generous matching program, where a hefty 6-to-1 return is made available for every personal contribution up to $175.
In 2009, Liu spent $5.2 million to grab the comptroller’s seat, more than any of his three Democratic rivals. Of that amount, $1.3 million came from matching funds. He might have won anyway, but the extra cash certainly did not hurt.
That’s not likely to be repeated next time around.
For one thing, the Campaign Finance Board is still scrutinizing his contributions and spending from 2009.
Officials there aren’t about to give Liu any more money until that audit is completed — and it can’t be finished until US Attorney Preet Bharara wraps up the case and makes it clear there was no taint to the matching funds distributed nearly three years ago.
CFB officials have good reason to be on their guard, since Liu’s treasurer allegedly instructed donors how to game the system they’re entrusted to protect.
“If I were him, I’d opt out [of the matching-funds program],” said the source. “It takes some of the heat off.”
But not all of it. The CFB would still have jurisdiction over his campaign, just as it does over Mayor Bloomberg’s 2009 re-election drive. Bloomberg, of course, paid his own way, and didn’t take a penny from taxpayers.
But the CFB is still reviewing if Bloomberg’s $1.2 million contribution to the state Independence Party for a poll-watching operation should have been disclosed before the election.
Liu could try taking the CFB to court to force it to pay up, a risky tactic for a guy who is supposed to be the city’s chief fiscal watchdog.
A tough spot for Taiwan-born Liu, who once told an interviewer that, if the Constitution allowed, he’d be interested in running for President of the United States.