Johan Santana (AP)
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TAMPA — Who will pitch more and better this season, Johan Santana or Andy Pettitte?
Both lefties missed all of last season, albeit for different reasons. Santana was recovering from shoulder surgery while Pettitte took what now amounts to a one-year sabbatical.
Santana is close to a necessity for the 2012 rotation-thin Mets. Pettitte appears a luxury for the rotation-deep Yankees.
Santana is seven years younger than Pettitte, but the shoulder ailment he is trying to return from does not come with a high success rate, and certainly not a speedy one.
Pettitte did not retire because his arm was damaged or because he no longer was capable. Instead, Pettitte exited citing a desire to spend more time with his family, but also because the fire to do the work necessary to succeed in the majors had dimmed. The preparation and maintenance of a late-30s body had become too painful and burdensome.
His 2010 season was limited to 21 starts and 129 innings because of a groin injury, and his postseason was threatened due to a back ailment. He last pitched in a game 517 days ago — and counting. It is 563 days for Santana. There is mystery to how either of their bodies will respond after these layoffs.
Look at it this way, the Yankees would take a mirror of Pettitte’s 2010: 21 starts, 129 innings, an 11-3 record and a 3.28 ERA. Pettitte certainly wants to get back to the majors as soon as possible. But the Yankees are stressing patience for reasons beyond Pettitte’s age (40 in June).
As opposed to the Mets, who have limited rotation depth and probably need more than 21 starts from Santana to approach respectability this year, the Yankees traded A.J. Burnett last month to trim payroll and their rotation from seven candidates to six. Now, once (if) Pettitte is ready, they will go back to seven. The target date probably is May 1.
Between now and then, a form of rotation “Survivor” is underway. Barring injury, CC Sabathia and probably Hiroki Kuroda have immunity. Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda each can be optioned to the minors. Freddy Garcia has just a one-year, $4 million contract and the Yankees feel no long-term commitment to him. Thus, that foursome is vulnerable to demotion to Triple-A or the bullpen while Garcia and Hughes, in particular, could emerge as trade candidates.
“It is nothing we’re afraid of,” general manager Brian Cashman said of potentially having to make tough rotation choices. “We look forward to the challenge.”
This is a team, after all, that solved rotation overcrowding last July by optioning Nova — even though he was 8-4 with a 4.12 ERA, including 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA in the six starts before the demotion.
The Yankees hope they have to make such uncomfortable decisions up and down the staff because Pettitte returns in May, Joba Chamberlain in June and David Aardsma in July. Quality pitching is the best asset the Yankees can have if they need to fix another area with an in-season trade.
But the reality is that few teams ever actually have too much pitching, particularly starting pitching. In 1996, for example, then Yankees manager Joe Torre was besieged daily in spring training on how he would turn seven established starters into five. As it turned out, Pettitte was the only one of the seven who made all of his starts that year, and rotation injuries and defects nearly undermined a championship team.
The Red Sox last year were viewed as having too much starting pitching and collapsed in September because they had poor health and reliability from the rotation.
The 2011 Yankees were thought to have too little starting pitching. But the demotion of Nova told a different story. He was optioned to make room for Bartolo Colon, who is kind of a cross between Santana and Pettitte. He missed all of 2010 after shoulder surgery and succeeded last year because he had incorporated more finesse into what had been a power arsenal.
Santana and Pettitte already have made the transition, relying on assortment of pitches, execution, savvy and unflappable natures rather than heat. But can Santana come all the way back from shoulder surgery and Pettitte from inertia?
This provides an interesting story within the long New York baseball season: Santana vs. Pettitte. Which veteran lefty makes it back best?
joel.sherman@nypost.com