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We can give you the simplistic answer. We can tell you runs per game are down for a fifth straight year and then credit the entire offensive deflation on stricter testing for illegal performance- enhancing drugs.
It certainly would not be hard to find advocates for that position. When I asked about the absence of offense, one veteran AL scout said, “Lack of juice in the veins,” and another added in an email, “PEDs. Period.”
But, again, I think it is simplistic. Nevertheless, I also am in the camp that does not believe PEDS were the lone factor in exploding offense of what has become known as the Steroid Era, roughly 1994-2006. Steroids were a significant contributor, not only to the body, but the entire mind of the game as offense became accentuated with smaller stadiums, tiny strike zones, better bats, and an emphasis on finding and developing position players who could rake even if they all fielded like Dave Kingman.
What the effort to remove the PEDs has done is shifted the thought process within the sport more toward run prevention. As Brewers GM Doug Melvin said, “It is always a number of things when trends or cycles change.”
The trend line cannot be ignored. In 2006, the runs per game average was 9.72 and has dropped annually to 9.59, 9.30, 9.23, 8.77 and to 8.45 entering this weekend.
If the .252 major-league-wide batting average holds, it will be the lowest since the pre-DH 1972 season. We are looking at the first sub-.400 (.390) slugging percentage in the sport since 1992. You would have to go back to 1988 to find an on-base percentage lower than the current .320.
So where has all the offense gone?
“There has clearly been a combination of factors such as weather, some new, big parks, a new PED landscape, more injuries than usual to good [hitters],” an AL general manager said. “Those factors will fluctuate over time. But also I do think teams are picking the good field/average-hit type over the good-hit/bad-field type. This impacts run scoring by taking good bats out of lineups while also improving defense.”
For a long stretch of time, essentially four-plus decades from the lowering of the mound in 1969 to the advent of the DH in 1973 to the epidemic of PED use to a statistical revolution that in its initial thrust stressed improving run production, pretty much every major introduction favored offense. That tide has changed in the past few years as a cocktail of factors have led to suppressing offense. Here is a look at the cocktail:
DRUGS
OK, it is impossible to talk about the topic of disappearing runs without discussing the anecdotal information about PEDs. But two things: If there are fewer PEDs in the game — and I believe wholeheartedly that is correct — then I do not credit the testing as much as I credit what I would call the Radomski Effect.
“No one is scared of getting caught by the testing,” one GM said, citing the ways to avoid a positive test, including using HGH. “The cheating is down because no one trusts that they won’t be sold out by someone in the supply chain.”
Essentially priests and rabbis are not selling PEDs; low-lives are. And you would have to trust a lowlife such as Kirk Radomski with your secrets in an age of instant media and 15-minute fame when secrets are harder to keep (see Weiner, Anthony, for example).
Also, concentrating just on steroids would be folly. Amphetamines, from what I have been told, are easily found in urine tests and, thus, the belief is they have been widely removed from the majors. The use of greenies for decades was a poorly kept secret as players used uppers to survive 162 games in 182 days with consistent travel across time zones, day games after night games, etc, plus to combat any late-night partying.
The absence of uppers is going to derail hitters who play daily more than, say, a starting pitcher who can build rest around his every-fifth-day work.
BETTER PITCHING
A scout who recently covered the Indians said, “Over six games they faced [Clay] Buchholz, [Josh] Beckett and [Jon] Lester for Boston and then [David] Price, [James] Shields and [Jeremy] Hellickson for Tampa [Bay]. It hit me how much good starting pitching there is now.”
An AL personnel chief said, “It feels like no game goes by now where there are not a couple of guys that hit 95 [mph] or better. It wasn’t like that a few years ago.”
Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long said, “It used to be a reliever came out of the pen with a pitch or a pitch and a half. Now guys have three pitches. It changes the late game.”
The MLB ERA was 3.86, which if it held would be under 4.00 for the first time since 1992. Some of this is about fewer PEDs in the game. As one scout said, “Guys don’t mis-hit balls out of stadiums anymore like the muscle freaks did, so now pitchers are more willing to work over the plate rather than nibble and either walk guys or work in bad counts and pitch count themselves out of games.”
Also, to combat the offensive phase, one director of player personnel said, “Teams began to value pitching more. They put more into drafting and developing pitchers, and we have learned more about how to get pitchers ready for the majors and to stay healthier.”
Several scouts cited the wider use of the cutter than ever before; an offering that if mastered gives pitchers a weapon to stay off the barrel of the bat when behind in the count.
And here this does not appear a fad. Multiple amateur scouts noted that this year’s draft is more than 50 deep in pitchers who at least touch 95 mph. Plus, the NCAA this year mandated institution of a less lively aluminum bats. The result is that college pitchers who used to nibble because the old aluminum bats were pretty much all sweet spot are now using their fastball more, which means they will come to the pros with greater control of that pitch than previously.
DEFENSE
“The first round of the Moneyball information phase was on how to increase runs,” an NL scout said. “Now it is about better pitching and defense.”
This is classic in all sports: A successful style invades the game and then time, money and brainpower are employed to create a counterbalance.
With less power in the game (probably due largely to the removal of PEDs), teams have re-embraced using athletic/defensive-minded players to a greater extent. Also, spray charts no longer belong to a scout working with his naked eye and color-coded pens. Now, utilizing computers, teams can pinpoint precisely where hitters hit against specific pitchers throwing specific types of pitches. In addition, the computer-generated hot/cold zones of hitters are more detailed than ever.
If you have pitchers who can work to hitters’ weaknesses plus have better defenders positioned better you must, by logic, reduce the number of hits.
An AL GM said, “I feel strongly that the two biggest contributing factors [to decreased offense] are: 1) the decision by a lot of teams to choose defense over offense in some historically offensive positions [corner positions] and 2) the amount and quality of advance information out there now. It is a huge upgrade for pitchers and not so different for hitters.”
When it comes to defense, for example, teams used to not do drastic shifts. Now, not only do you see a greater frequency, but they are not cookie cutters; for example, the Rays not only move their second baseman back onto the grass for Mark Teixeira batting lefty, but also over toward the line. The Yankee outfield plays shallower than ever, looking to cut down the much greater rate of balls hit in front of rather than beyond the outfield.
A personnel head said, “A greater belief in technology is feeding the conviction in the accuracy of the hitting charts. In the NBA, for example, teams know where they want each opposing player to shoot from because he is least likely to hit from there, so you organize your defense around creating that shot. That is all we are doing now, organizing our defense so that players can’t successfully hit the ball into their favorite safe spots.”
What this could mean is that the ability to hit for a high average — which in the last decade-plus has paled against on-base percentage — could return to prominence. Consider the possibility that the Moneyball emphasis on working counts has created a generation of passive hitters, who now are dealing with better pitchers more willing to throw it over the plate and, thus, avoid hitter’s counts.
The MLB batting average since 2006 has plummeted from .269 to .268 to .264 to .262 to .257 to .252.
“If the league-wide average is going to drop to .250,” a former GM said, “then the undervalued commodity in the sport becomes the ability to hit .300-plus.”
According to data at Fangraphs.com, the value of a walk toward a win has remained static, while singles, doubles and homers all have increased slightly in value in 2011.
AGE/INJURY
Again, this could be a ramification of fewer PEDs. Perhaps no place do we see this impact than with the DH position, which used to be the sanctuary for older players. The current OPS of DHs, .746, would be the lowest since 1990.
“The class of superstar player who carried the game for so long like Manny [Ramirez], [Jason] Giambi, [Miguel] Tejada, [Vlad] Guerrero, [Gary] Sheffield, Junior [Griffey], [Frank] Thomas and others have either faded or left the game, and the next generation does not have a class like that,” an AL GM said. “Right now you have a lot of what should be prime-time guys who have been hurt this year such as [Joe] Mauer, [Josh] Hamilton, [Chase] Utley, [Justin] Morneau and Hanley [Ramirez]. You take enough stars out through age, retirement or injury, it will affect the offensive performance in total around the sport.”
WEATHER
Going into the weekend, there had been 32 rainouts (11 more than all of last season) and the weather has been baseball-unfriendly pretty much across the major league map. So it is possible that as the temperatures warm, offenses will get hotter this season.
STADIUMS
Three of the tougher stadiums in which to hit homers — Nationals Park, Citi Field and Target Field — opened from 2008-10, whereas such annual offensive havens as Camden Yards, Coors Field, The Ballpark in Arlington, Chase Field, Miller Park, Minute Maid Park, Great American Ballpark and Citizens Bank Park opened in the hitter-friendly period from 1992-2004.
“Citi is a graveyard,” an AL executive said. “Target [in Minnesota] is a graveyard. Petco [in San Diego, opened in 2004] is a graveyard. You open enough graveyards and you will kill some offense.”
joel.sherman@nypost.com