Sandy Alderson was hired as Mets general manager to deal with issues exactly like Jose Reyes’ free agency.
He is viewed industry wide as an executive who does not believe in the long, expensive contract, which made him ideal for a franchise that — at least in the short run — wants to shut off the money spigot. And he is considered a Marine even in baseball matters: Someone who will dispassionately assess a situation without being swayed by emotion or outside pressures.
All of this was central to why I championed Alderson for the job. The Wilpons badly needed the anti-them atop baseball operations: A savvy leader who would not have a plan-of-the-moment or make decisions on whims or who would dismiss strong-held beliefs because of the loud, opposing voices of media or fans.
Yet this is one of the rare instances when, I believe, Alderson must include emotion in the decision-making process. This is a disenfranchised fan base. Do the Mets really want to risk further alienation? Do they want to keep hemorrhaging attendance? The Mets would pay a price to avoid the worst, and the price also happens to be a star shortstop in his prime.
Is there risk in going big dollars and long term with Reyes? You bet. As one AL assistant GM said, “Can we wait until he makes it through six months healthy — instead of two — before determining his value?”
Reyes is almost guaranteed to play the whole season without signing. I have yet to talk to an executive or agent who thinks Reyes would do an extension before declaring free agency, unless the Mets go into Carl Crawford territory now (seven year at $142 million), and they will not do that.
As one AL personnel man summed up on the subject: “Once you get this close to free agency, you have waited too long and worked too hard not to declare.”
The most immediate question is if the Mets will trade Reyes before the
July 31 deadline. The more I talk to Mets officials, the more I get the feeling they will not, especially if they remain sniffing distance from a playoff spot. There seems to be an organizational determination to maximize winning this year as a way to change the perception of the foundering franchise and also to try to keep the turnstiles spinning, to some degree, late in the year.
Also, an official involved in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement told me the current rules regarding free agency almost certainly will be grandfathered in for this offseason, even if a new accord is reached beforehand. That is vital to the Mets because Reyes is all but guaranteed of being a Type-A free agent, which would mean if the Mets offer arbitration (which they will) they would recoup a first-round draft pick and a sandwich pick next June.
Of course, the big question is whether the Mets will let Reyes escape elsewhere. Fred Wilpon did a little hand-tipping recently in The New Yorker when he claimed Reyes is not going to earn Crawford money. Maybe he isn’t. But I suspect he is going to get no less than $100 million for six years, and probably a lot more than that.
No one would have guessed at this time last year that Crawford would get as much as he did or that Jayson Werth would receive $120 million over seven years from Washington. And I would dare say that if all three were free agents today, Reyes would be the most desirable.
An NL executive framed the how-much-will-Reyes-get topic well, saying, “God, I can’t imagine a harder question.”
He’s a 28-year-old superstar talent at a premium position with an incredible platform year — thus far. Yet somewhere in everyone’s head has to be the injury-plagued 2009 and the poor 2010 at age 25 and 26.
“When I hear the Carl Crawford talk, my initial reaction is that it is crazy. But Reyes can play like Crawford but as a shortstop. The difference is Crawford didn’t have nagging durability questions. I suppose if one takes a glass-half-full look at Reyes, they could talk themselves into a crazy deal.”
Here is why I believe the Mets have to be prepared to go, at the least, a little crazy to retain Reyes:
ARE THEY A BIG-MARKET TEAM OR NOT?
The current financial problems are significant. But the organizational belief has to be a better tomorrow is coming in which the Mets again operate like a New York baseball team. That kind of team would not let its best, prime-aged player go somewhere else. Ever.
An AL personnel head said, “If the Mets sign [Reyes] for six years at $110 million, that is not the type of decision that should hurt the New York Mets in the long run.”
The same executive also noted, “Sandy and DePo [Alderson aide Paul DePodesta] are very smart, but they have never had to deal with this kind of contract [in previous smaller-payroll stops]. They used to be able to just eliminate the market of players that would make big money. Now they have to make this decision. Welcome to life as a big-market GM, boys.”
THE NIGHTMARE
The Giants, Brewers (losing Prince Fielder), Cardinals (if they lose Albert Pujols), Dodgers (if they get new ownership), Mariners, Orioles and Nationals seem a logical starting point for interested teams — which should create the market that gets Reyes more than $100 million and toward Crawford.
The Red Sox often are associated with Reyes. But after investing
14 years and $296 million into Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez last offseason, Boston officials hardly have expressed enthusiasm for risking such a mega-deal on yet another position player. Jed Lowrie and touted prospect Julio Inglesias cover shortstop inexpensively for the Red Sox, freeing them to invest in other areas.
No, the nightmare is if the Yankees or Phillies play big for Reyes. The Yankees are a long shot considering they are tied to Derek Jeter through at least 2013. But if he continues to perform poorly and contributes to an unsuccessful season, do the Yankees feel compelled to do something big to continue to dominate this marketplace? Yankees officials know what a kill shot it would be to the Mets to sign away their most popular player.
And what if the Phillies decide to turn the page on their iconic shortstop, since Jimmy Rollins is a free agent? This is one of the areas in which Alderson and Company must consider their fan base and what would happen if Reyes actually ends up in The Bronx or Philadelphia.
SHORTSTOPS/SHORT SUPPLY
If you haven’t noticed, it is hard to find good shortstops in the majors. So if you have one, you might want to keep him. And an AL personnel head told me his team currently rates just three shortstops who are at Double-A or higher — Inglesias, Toronto’s Angel Echevarria and Houston’s Jonathan Villar — as above-average prospects. And each of those guys is struggling offensively and does not project to be the all-around force that Reyes is. So there is not much of a next wave coming.
Ruben Tejada is a nice prospect, but the gap between him and Reyes is such that the Mets better plan on getting the old Jason Bay back in full plus add another good player or two to compensate.
THE GAME HAS CHANGED
Again, Reyes has risk. If you sign him for six years, you probably hope he gives your four elite ones and anything else is a fringe benefit. But with scoring down and pitching, defense and athleticism being emphasized in a greater way, is there a player in the whole sport who helps your pitching, defense and athleticism more than Reyes?
The Mets have a bunch of players, for example, frustrated by Citi Field. Reyes is the template for a Citi Field player — on the field and, management should not ignore this, in the stands, as well.
joel.sherman@nypost.com