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Do you believe in the Pittsburgh Pirates? That is a question mainly for Mets fans.
If you don’t believe in the Pirates, why should anyone believe in the Mets? They have similar records and similar run differentials. The baseballprospectus.com playoff odds gave the Mets a 2.6 percent chance to reach the postseason entering the weekend while Pittsburgh was at 1.4 percent. Neither is exactly run-to-Vegas odds.
So if you believe in the Mets, you should believe in the Pirates, right?
This is mainly offered as an exercise in clear thinking as the July 31 trade deadline nears. I am asking Mets fans to see the team’s condition with their heads rather than their hearts. You have the same record essentially as the Pirates. A computer system that offers no bias suggests that if this season were played 100 times, the Mets would make the playoffs on just two or three occasions.
So if the Mets have roughly
the same chance of reaching the postseason as the Pirates, then shouldn’t they be trade sellers?
“They only have one choice and that is it,” an AL executive said. “They shouldn’t lie to their fan base. They have too many long-term problems, and they have a bottom-five farm system that must be upgraded. The best offer they get for Jose Reyes, they should take that. The first real good offer they get for Francisco Rodriguez, they must take it even if they have to pay down a lot of the contract. They cannot let that contract vest on their watch.”
Sounds right. Except, the Pirates do not plan to sell significantly in July. Pittsburgh has a North American team sport record 18 straight losing seasons — dating to 1992, Barry Bonds’ last year as a Pirate. So the organization is dedicated to try to finish over .500 as a way to change the culture and the conversation around the franchise.
So ulterior motives must be considered as the deadline approaches, even for teams with small possibilities of reaching the playoffs such as the Pirates and Mets.
In the Mets’ case, they have disenfranchised the fans in the past few years. But, slowly, the Mets are changing the subject a bit. The fans like this team — like that injuries have not derailed the squad; like that these Mets have exhibited passion too often missing in the recent past; like that a lot of the success is coming from homegrown products. They want to embrace this club. They want to edge back toward Citi Field.
But if the Mets suddenly start dealing key veterans, notably Reyes, the majority reaction among the fan base will be fury and betrayal, Citi will become a ghost town after Aug. 1. For an organization in financial distress this will be a killer, especially because it will spill into ticket sales for next year by extending the era of bad feelings between franchise and fans.
“I think if they had their druthers, they would prefer to either be buyers or stand pat because it would cure a lot of ills going on now with the franchise,” an NL general manager said. “If they can win or just stay in contention into September, that would really help them. Yes, it would set back some development from a rebuilding standpoint. But not long term. This ownership does not want the rhetoric to begin again that it must sell. The Wilpons don’t want that. And that is what would happen if they started selling off pieces when they were still at least on the outskirts of the race.”
So you can see the conundrum facing the Mets: There are legitimate cases for selling, buying or even standing pat. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson is making plans for all three contingencies, but what he needs most is clarity.
“If you are Sandy Alderson, you are rooting to go one way or the other and quick,” an NL executive said. “You win nine out of 10, you get like seven-eight over .500, now you are in it. You lose 10 in a row, you tank, you are out of it. Their current situation is the nightmare scenario. As a GM, the place you don’t want to be is that range from two-over to two-under. You look at your team, you know it is not a contender, but it is hard to tell your fans that, especially if your fans feel you have broken their hearts before.”
In the best scenario, Ike Davis and David Wright return around the All-Star break, Jason Bay begins to resemble the player the Mets thought they signed, and some positive feedback begins flowing from Johan Santana’s shoulder rehab. That would make the Mets deeper and provide stronger evidence they could stay in the race.
Conversely, the laws of probability suggest Reyes will not play to this level all year, nor will Dillon Gee. Do you believe in the durability of Carlos Beltran and Jason Isringhausen?
Imagine how calamitous it would be if the Mets stood pat or made a minor adjustment to the roster and then swooned in August. In that case, for a pipedream, they would have let vanish the chances to repopulate what is universally considered one of the 10 worst farm systems in the game by failing to cash in Beltran, Reyes and K-Rod.
“Rationally, they are still pretty flawed with two attractive free-agent-to-be trade chips [Beltran and Reyes],” an NL personnel man said. “But the temperature of the fans and reversing negative momentum are real considerations.”
So to break down the cases:
REASONS TO BE SELLERS
This team is not ready to win now, and failing to seize the opportunity to maximize Beltran and Reyes, in particular, when they are healthy and playing well, would be shortsighted and crippling. Not trading K-Rod, even if it means eating most or all of his contract, would be folly because if he vests at
$17.5 million for next year by finishing 55 games in 2011, the Mets will limit their maneuverability to keep Reyes and/or improve the product by diversifying funds elsewhere. An NL executive on why they should sell: “Let’s face it, they aren’t real contenders. They are fake contenders.”
REASONS TO STAND PAT
The fans are starting to like the team again while not obsessing these days on ownership. A selloff would infuriate the faithful and trigger a new, powerful wave of animus toward the Wilpons, which they will go a long way to avoid. Beltran is probably not a player the Mets could offer arbitration, but the Mets will do so with Reyes in which case they would get two high picks for him even if he left as a free agent, plus having the goodwill of playing out the season to try and win. It is not as good as adding three already-defined prospects in a trade, but it is something.
REASONS TO BE BUYERS
Mets officials have told outsiders there will be no adding to the payroll. So the only way to be July buyers is to get another team to eat money in a trade in exchange for better prospects or to deal salary elsewhere to create financial flexibility. The Mets are not really in the right place to begin chipping away at the best of a frail system. So perhaps if they could trade K-Rod and save a few dollars, they could try to acquire a less-expensive closer type with the money/prospects received for Rodriguez. That would remove the financial burden of K-Rod in 2012 while not completely surrendering 2011.
joel.sherman@nypost.com