Col. Moammar Khadafy may no longer be a problem for Libya. But even with Khadafy ousted, Libya is likely to be a problem for some time.
Before they uncork the bubbly, NATO leaders should take a hard look at what remains to be done to turn Khadafy’s defeat into a victory for democracy — rather than an invitation to chaos and civil war.
First, NATO must remember that it intervened in Libya on behalf of the United Nations and with the specific mission of protecting the civilian population. That mission continues.
Khadafy’s ruthless death machine may have scattered, but scores, perhaps hundreds, of armed groups roam the streets of most major Libyan cities — posing a smaller-scale but no less serious threat to civilians. Several tribes have looted Khadafy’s arms depots and are seeking to lay down their own law in their neck of the woods.
Second, because NATO still controls access to Libya’s frozen assets, it should ensure that funds released to the National Transition Council (the interim governmental authority) go to cover legitimate expenses — not for weapons for tribes and armed groups loyal to various personalities. Such control should remain until there is an elected government in Tripoli.
Third, NATO, the United States and the European Union should ensure that Libya’s vital oil industry isn’t broken into pieces, with rival groups controlling different chunks.
Fourth, NATO should maintain its naval presence in Libyan territorial waters for some time, both to monitor attempts to break the arms embargo or to smuggle oil for weapons and to lessen the risk of the region’s turning into a lawless zone that could shelter terrorist groups. Libya, after all, has more than 1,000 miles of coastline on a sea of vital strategic importance to the Western powers.
Finally, Libya needs to immediately adopt a political road map: a lifting of the ban on political parties, the abolition of censorship on the media and the release of all political prisoners.
Such a road map would also include clear dates for the formation of a consultative council to draft a new constitution and a date for submitting the results to a referendum. Western powers should not repeat in Libya the mistake they made in Afghanistan, where a presidential system of government was imposed on a loosely controlled tribal society.
An early date for a general election to choose a national parliament is another must.
Some argue that Libya needs time before it plunges into elections; others, that elections alone don’t produce democracy. Both arguments are right, in part.
But a strong case can be made for early elections in Libya, so that the new government can be seen as a people-based polity rather than the product of a NATO-backed armed uprising. The only way to give all Libyans a say in reshaping their country is to let them choose among the many options that would be on offer.
Khadafy is done. So let’s go for what he hated most: free elections.