Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently defended A.J. Burnett and what was at the heart of his now much-derided soliloquy — beyond simply wanting to shield a member of the team — was that the besieged right-hander should be judged based on his abilities, not by his paycheck.
The Yankees know Burnett is just a No. 4-5 starter, despite a salary commensurate to a No. 2, and Cashman was insisting Burnett be viewed by that standard, and not by the foolhardy contract bestowed upon him.
In this way, Mike Pelfrey is the Mets’ version of Burnett. He fails at being what those around the Mets had hoped based on Pelfrey being the ninth overall pick in the draft and a 6-foot-7 hurler capable of throwing in the mid-90s and the designated ace in Johan Santana’s absence.
But the title does not make the man. Pelfrey, like Burnett, is a No. 4 starter, whose strength is durability rather than greatness; more Jeremy Guthrie than Justin Verlander. Or more like Burnett, since both are sturdy enough to be among the 24 pitchers to start 120 or more games since 2008, but both are in the bottom six of that group in ERA.
I asked four executives — two from each league — to describe Pelfrey and all, unsolicited, used a term to describe a back-of-the-rotation cog. An NL baseball operations head called Pelfrey “fourth starter-ish” because of “his lack of punch outs and so-so toughness.” An AL personnel chief said, “He is the kind of guy you don’t want starting the first three games of a playoff series. And that is not as valuable as his salary increases.”
This is the conundrum for the Mets: They probably missed their best window to trade Pelfrey, coming off his 15-win 2010 and still three seasons removed from free agency. The Mets certainly will weigh trades this offseason. But Pelfrey’s value is diminished because his salary will rise to about $6 million, his 2011 is underwhelming and with Scott Boras as his representative it all but guarantees Pelfrey will test free agency after the 2013 season.
Still, to the group of teams that cannot play for the top free-agent starters such as Yu Darvish (he is expected to be posted this offseason), C.J. Wilson and perhaps CC Sabathia, Pelfrey is affordable. He feels like the type that St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan has been resuscitating for years.
“He profiles as more of an innings guy than a big-time impact starter,” said an NL scouting head. “He has never exhibited a true pitcher’s feel and this dates back to college. Still, there just is not enough available, experienced pitching to discount him as a trade chip. I wouldn’t think you’d be talking about a premium-type return. But this is the type of guy that second-division teams with limited payrolls sink their teeth into as a reclamation project at a reasonably affordable rate.”
Nevertheless, unless the Wilpons’ financial plight forces bare-bone payroll slashing, the most likely scenario for Pelfrey is he remains a Met, at least until the July 2012 trade deadline. Remember that the Mets’ money crunch means they cannot really upgrade externally, so they probably will go with the same No. 3-or-worse group of Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee and Jonathon Niese as this year; with more hopes and prayers for a Santana return.
It is one reason manager Terry Collins told me a priority for pitching coach Dan Warthen heading into next year will be helping Pelfrey rediscover his sinker.
The AL personnel chief said, “Pelfrey does not have the same arm strength as when he first crossed onto everyone’s radar.”
Without the bite on his sinker, Pelfrey has become more of a fly ball pitcher. His 19 homers surrendered already were a career-high. He kept Milwaukee in the park last night, but still fell to 6-10 with a 4.61 ERA by allowing four runs (three earned) in five innings in a 6-1 loss.
“He can help a team win in New York,” Collins insisted.
That is still to be determined. The Mets and the pitcher seem to be in a slow drift away from each other, according to outside executives, who think both sides know they are not in a long-term marriage. Maybe it will be easier for Pelfrey to start fresh somewhere else with the expectations of just a No. 4 starter.