Post columnist Steve Serby takes a look at the NFL and breaks down each team and every division as part of our 2011 NFL Preview:
1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Coach: Andy Reid
2011 projection: 11-5
2010 record: 10-6
Over/under wins: 10 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8-1
Serby Says: Dream contract for Mike Vick, the $100 million quarterback of the Dream Team, at the end of a dream offseason.
Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham now must venture into a Bermuda Triangle of cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique
Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel. Manning and Tony Romo have to get rid of the ball before Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins and Trent Cole check their tonsils.
Owner Jeff Lurie, Andy Reid, GM Howie Roseman and prez Joe Banner seem desperate to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl. They demoralized Giants fans by signing Steve Smith, who will be the perfect complement to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin once his knee recovers fully from microfracture surgery. And Jason Avant is no slouch. LeSean McCoy, a she-devil in Osi Umenyiora’s world, is a gamebreaking run-pass option. TE Brent Celek no longer will be an afterthought. The big concern is the offensive line, where two rookies — C Jason Kelce and RG Danny Watkins — are starting, LT Todd Herremans has been moved to RT, and inexperienced Evan Mathis is the new LT. If defensive coordinator Juan Castlllo has a concern, it would be at middle linebacker, where rookie Casey Matthews must replace departed Stewart Bradley. But defensive line coach Jim Washburn is elite.
A moment of silence, please, for the end of the David Akers-Sav Rocca Era.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Vick will be great trade bait after monster start to season. Jackson is feast or famine, making him poor value in third round. We would rather have Maclin three rounds later. McCoy worth late-first-round pick.
2. DALLAS COWBOYS
Coach: Jason Garrett
2011 projection: 9-7
2010 record: 6-10
Over/under wins: 9 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 16-1
Serby Says: It seems that Tony Romo has enjoyed being a celebrity quarterback as much, if not more, than a championship quarterback, and it’s time for that to change under erudite disciplinarian Jason Garrett.
It was cute when Bill Parcells called him Pancho Villa for his gunslinging ways, but he isn’t the young kid who vacationed in Cabo before a playoff game against the Giants with Jessica Simpson anymore.
If the much-maligned offensive line — No. 1 pick Tyron Smith moves in as left tackle Doug Free’s bookend and Leonard Davis and Marc Colombo are gone — can protect Romo, he has the luxury of distributing the ball to gamebreakers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, not to mention savvy, clutch TE Jason Witten. Then there is optimism that this is the year the light comes on for dynamic Felix Jones, who no longer has to platoon with Marion Barber but run away from the injury bug.
The big — literally — addition on defense is Rob Ryan, who is every bit as blunt and entertaining as twin brother Rex and every bit the defensive maestro. The problem is installing a new system in such a compressed, post-lockout time frame with a secondary that is highly suspect because CB Mike Jenkins tanked a year ago and Terence Newman is 33. Ex-Jet, ex-Brown S Abram Elam will take your head off. If MLB Sean Lee couldn’t beat out 35-year-old Keith Brooking, then it looks as if Jerry Reese made the right call drafting DT Linval Joseph instead of him. Sack monster OLB DeMarcus Ware — easily Parcells’ best draft pick while toiling for/with Jerry Jones — is the target of every offensive game planner. If Ryan can light a fire under OLB Anthony Spencer and DLs Marcus Spears, Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher, good luck guessing which dignitary Jerry will have patrolling the sidelines with him.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: You can win with Romo at QB. We like Bryant in fifth round, if he can stay on field and out of courts. Expect WR2 numbers from Austin.
3. NEW YORK GIANTS
Coach: Tom Coughlin
2011 projection: 8-8
2010 record: 10-6
Over/under wins: 9 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30-1
Serby Says: Tom Coughlin has been preaching finishing games (see Matt Dodge vs. DeSean Jackson) and finishing seasons (December). But from the looks of things, he better worry about starting this season, or there is a possibility he won’t be around to talk about starting or finishing the next one.
Eli Manning will be asked to cut his 25 interceptions in half (OK, let’s make it 13), except you know by now that he doesn’t have a tight end he trusts, or a third receiver he trusts. And that he has a new center, a new left tackle, and his old tackle playing left guard.
The haunting image from the summer remains disgruntled Osi Umenyiora pedaling the stationary bike during practice before caving and then undergoing knee surgery that will cost him the first month of the regular season at least. Jason Pierre-Paul, an emerging Monster of the Meadowlands, will more than hold the fort in his absence.
But the loss of CB Terrell Thomas for the season was a devastating blow with both strategic and psychological ramifications, particularly in the wake of the earlier foot injury to No. 1 draft pick Prince Amukamara that cost him the first month of the regular season, at the least. Aaron Ross is now the starter.
Special teams play has regressed. There have been zero playoff wins since Super Bowl XLII. Bill Parcells walked away after eight years. This is Coughlin’s eighth year.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: WR Hakeem Nicks is just outside elite status. Mario Manningham is good get in eighth round. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is solid RB2, and we love value for Brandon Jacobs in rounds 11-12.
4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Coach: Mike Shanahan
2011 projection: 6-10
2010 record: 6-10
Over/under wins: 6 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 85-1
Serby Says: Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb, or Mike Shanahan and Albert Haynesworth, turned out to be as good a match as Daniel Snyder and Steve Spurrier, or Daniel Snyder and Jim Zorn. Shanahan, who won a pair of Super Bowls with an aging John Elway, has restored discipline and stability to a team crying out for both. But he won¹t be able to build a contender with the worst quarterbacking in the division. John Beck or Rex Grossman? Any chance Sonny Jurgensen can come down from the radio booth?
Complicating matters are the receiving options. Santana Moss will give you thrills every now and then but never has been the Lethal Weapon Terry Bradway envisioned when he drafted him for the Jets. The other options — Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Armstrong, Dont’e Stallworth, rookie Leonard Hankerson — are just guys. On a more optimistic note, TE Chris Cooley (knee) expects to be ready for Opening Day against the Giants, and if he’s not, TE Fred Davis is gifted enough to have a big day.
The Shanahans –- son Kyle is the offensive coordinator — have fallen head over heels for RB Tim Hightower, a natural fit for the zone-blocking scheme and an able pass catcher out of the backfield. LT Trent Williams and RT Jammal Brown enable them to sleep at night.
Jim Haslett’s defense has a chance to be hell on quarterbacks if rookie OLB Ryan Kerrigan can be the bookend for OLB Brian Orakpo, who is a beast destined for 12-14 sacks. It could be difficult to run on the ‘Skins with ex-Giant Barry Cofield anchoring the middle of the defensive line alongside DE Stephen Bowen and ILBs London Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh and S LaRon Landry lurking behind him, and more difficult to pass on them with O.J. Atogwe at free safety helping out CBs DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. Terrence Austin is the dangerous new kick returner, and if another hurricane comes up the coast, Sav Rocca just might punt one to the White House Lawn.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: No to Grossman. No to Cooley. No to RB Ryan Torain. No to Moss, at least not in eighth round. Hightower is good value in rounds 9-10.