Post columnist Steve Serby takes a look at the NFL and breaks down each team and every division as part of our 2011 NFL Preview:
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Coach: Norv Turner
2011 projection: 12-4
2010 record: 9-7
Over/under wins: 9 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12-1
Serby Says: Philip Rivers (4,710 passing yards in 2010) can quarterback my team any time. Love the way he leads and fights. You know it kills him that Eli Manning has a Super Bowl ring and he doesn’t. He’ll have Vincent Jackson for more than four games this season and TE Antonio Gates (toe) is unstoppable in the red zone and Malcom Floyd is back. That’s three targets 6-foot-5 and taller. Norv Turner needs Ryan Mathews to shed the injury bug and help Mike Tolbert provide balance with a punishing ground game. The offensive line returns intact.
No. 1 pick DE Corey Liuget has opened eyes with his relentless energy and should help OLBs Shaun Phillips, Antwan Barnes and Travis LaBoy get after the quarterback. But is he stout enough against the run or will the burden be on NT Antonio Garay, ILB Takeo Spikes and injury-prone S Bob Sanders? S Eric Weddle is a game-changer, but CB Antoine Cason, who replaced Antonio Cromartie, is struggling with a broken finger on his right hand. New defensive coordinator Greg Manusky craves takeaways.
New special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia replaced Steve Crosby after
three kickoffs and one punt were returned for touchdowns a year ago, and Mike Scifres had four punts blocked. Someone needs to replace kick returner Darren Sproles. A cake early schedule offers hope that the Chargers won’t stumble out of the gate the way they have in each of Turner’s four seasons.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Rivers underrated, worthy of third-round pick ahead of Peyton Manning. Mathews has looked better this preseason and is worthy of fifth- or sixth-round pick. Big year awaits Jackson, and don’t overlook Floyd as WR4.
2. OAKLAND RAIDERS
Coach: Hue Jackson
2011 projection: 8-8
2010 record: 8-8
Over/under wins: 6 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 65-1
Serby Says: I like this Hue Jackson, who sounds like Rex Ryan when hesays: “I talk boldly and carry a big stick.” Hue Gotta Believe!
Offensive coordinator Al Saunders has worked with Jason Campbell before, so that can only help.
The running attack, second in the league last year, should be formidable again as long as dynamic Darren McFadden can stay on the field. With Michael Bush in reserve, and TE Kevin Boss a more than capable blocker, as long as they can replace G Robert Gallery and rookie C Stefen Wisniewski is ready to make an impact, the ground game will keep going strong.
Campbell will miss TE Zach Miller, but burner WR Jacoby Ford shows promise as a deep threat, and rookie Denarius Moore has been everything that Al Davis thought Darrius Heyward-Bey would be when he made him the seventh pick of the 2009 draft.
Pro Bowl DT Richard Seymour, MLB Rolando McClain and OLB Kamerion Wimbley (nine sacks) key a swaggerlicious front seven that will need to provide cover for a secondary devastated by the departure of Nnamdi Asomugha to the Eagles. Because don’t think that Philip Rivers — not to mention Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress in Week 3 – hasn’t noticed that Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson are now the starting cornerbacks.
Don’t overlook the fact that the kicking game is elite with punter Shane Lechler and placekicker Sebastian Janikowski.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: McFadden is fantastic, but huge health risk. Wait until early third round. The rest is a Black Hole.
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Coach: Todd Haley
2011 projection: 7-9
2010 record: 10-6
Over/under wins: 7 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40-1
Serby Says: My definition of a rookie mistake is antagonizing a block of granite like Thomas Jones to the point where he delivers a sucker punch that ends all debate. Such was the plight of diva No. 1 draft WR Jonathan Baldwin, who has scary talent and scary immaturity. GM Scott Pioli went against his grain of flooding his locker room with high-character types to give Matt Cassel another big target opposite Dwayne Bowe to balance the top rushing attack (164.2 yards per game) in the NFL.
Mike Vrabel’s retirement and the release of LG Brian Waters leave a leadership void that could be difficult to fill. Jones is now the backup to explosive Jamaal Charles (1,467 yards), with Dexter McCluster a change of pace off the bench, all of them following bludgeoning fullback Le’Ron McClain. McCluster was their best offensive player this summer. With Charlie Weis gone but not forgotten, Todd Haley likely will call the plays again.
Since Barry Richardson hardly is the answer at right tackle, look for
Jared Gaither to step in at left tackle with Branden Albert moving over to the right side, and young Jon Asamoah replacing Waters.
The secondary has a pair of young wunderkinds in safety Eric Berry and cornerback Brandon Flowers, but DEs Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have looked nothing like top-five draft picks. Maybe the offseason mixed martial arts training can help Jackson. At least former No. 1 ILB Derrick Johnson has shed the bust label. Nickel rusher Wallace Gilberry helps OLB Tamba Hali (14 1/2 sacks) harass the quarterback, while 34-year-old NT Kelly Gregg comes over from the Ravens to help bolster the run defense.
It’s unrealistic to expect these guys to defend their division crown with such a foreboding schedule: road games against the Colts, Patriots Bears and Jets, and home games against the Steelers and Packers. Oh, if you want to see a head coach’s head implode, watch what happens when an opponent runs up the score on the volatile Haley.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Presence of Jones concerns us, but not enough to bypass Charles at No. 2 overall. Like Cassel as fantasy backup QB. Bowe is strong WR2. Keep eye on Baldwin on waivers once season starts.
4. DENVER BRONCOS
Coach: John Fox
2011 projection: 4-12
2010 record: 4-12
Over/under wins: 5 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60-1
Serby Says: No truth to the rumor that Tim Tebow has fallen behind Bubby Brister on the depth chart. It doesn¹t mean that new boss John Elway isn’t ecstatic that he didn¹t trade Kyle Orton to the Dolphins. John Fox will change the stench of a culture that Josh McDaniels left behind, but it won’t happen overnight. This is a franchise that has missed the playoffs five straight seasons.
Once upon a time, even before Elway forced his way to Denver on the day of the 1983 draft, the Broncos advanced to a Super Bowl on the back of their Orange Crush defense. Lately, however, it’s been Orange Pulp. Larry David himself would be hard-pressed to Curb His Enthusiasm if someone handed him the football and offered him the chance to run against this godforsaken unit.
What Fox craves, more than anything, is a young Kris Jenkins, or an Ndamukong Suh clone to dominate the interior up front. He settled for Ty Warren, who tore his triceps, and Brodrick Bunkley, who phizzled in Philly. At least there’s hope for some heat on Philip Rivers as No. 1 pick OLB Von Miller is ready immediately to help DE Elvis Dumervil. And if DE Robert Ayers breaks through, it won’t be a picnic for opposing quarterbacks, even if Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are a year older in the secondary.
Since Orton will be playing catchup, it would be nice if WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eddie Royal can stay on the field and help Brandon Lloyd. Of course, it also would be nice if Knowshon Moreno lived up to his first-round billing. Willis McGahee will be the goal-line back.
With Matt Prater’s strong leg, combined with the new kickoff rules, don’t expect the coverage units to be busy.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Like Orton early in season, as well as Lloyd. Moreno will run himself out of top job, to the benefit of McGahee later in season.