The Profit put its money where its mouth is last week, and it ended up costing overall in a 7-8 week. We told you it was the week of the favorite and we went heavy on the givers. But four dogs did cover and we didn’t have any of them.
This is the second most difficult week thus far (behind Week 5). There are some games off the grid we like a lot: SMU at home giving 2½ to Central Florida. Cincinnati giving 16 to Louisville in Paul Brown Stadium. Northern Illinois getting 2 at home against Western Michigan.
Now onto the card:
TONIGHT
CALIFORNIA (+3) over Usc (in San Francisco) — With Memorial Stadium undergoing a much-needed renovation, the Golden Bears are playing this season at AT&T Park, a baseball stadium. Not much of a home-field advantage, even on a Thursday night. But the Trojans are loose with the ball, and the one thing they can’t do (defend the pass) is the one thing Cal does well (throw it).
TOMORROW
Hawaii (-6½) over SAN JOSE STATE — The Warriors scare the daylights out of The Profit because they lostby 20 at UNLV. The Spartans scare us because they lost at UCLA. The Warriors scare us less.
SATURDAY
TEXAS A&M (-9½) over Baylor — Broke out my WDVK (What Does Vegas Know) bracelet for this one. The Aggies blew ginormous leads two weeks in a row and almost blew a third. They can score with almost anyone (except Oklahoma State).
MICHIGAN STATE (-2) over Michigan — Still can’t figure out how the Spartans lost to Notre Dame. Wolverines have the electric Denard Robinson. But the Spartans, with the nation’s No. 1-ranked defense, have had two weeks to prepare for this class warfare.
PENN STATE (-12) over Purdue — The day that Penn State wears a third uniform of black pants, black shirts and a black helmet is the day the Nittany Lions’ marvelous defense under Tom Bradley can’t defend a one-dimensional offense. Especially on homecoming.
Miami (+3) over NORTH CAROLINA — Miami, on coaching.
RUTGERS (-4) over Navy — The Scarlet Knights are No. 1 in the nation in turnovers. Any Rutgers player that commits a turnover must clean the rims on coach Greg Schiano’s maroon (don’t tell him it’s not scarlet) SUV with a toothbrush.
Florida State (-13½) over DUKE — This might be the most important game in Jimbo Fisher’s early career at Florida State. Since losing at home to Oklahoma the air has gone out of the team, culminating with last week’s loss at Wake Forest. FSU has something else to play for.
South Florida (-8) over UCONN — The Bulls have had two weeks to look at the gory film of how they were stampeded by Pitt.
Lsu (-16) over TENNESSEE — The Vols have lost starting QB Tyler Bray (thumb). Even before his injury, the offense was spotty. Georgia shut down the Vols in Knoxville and the Dawgs’ defense isn’t nearly as good as LSU’s.
ILLINOIS (-4) over Ohio State — Ron Zook and the Illini may never have this chance again. The Buckeyes are on the ropes following that epic collapse in Lincoln.
Oklahoma State (- 7½) over TEXAS — The Cowboys scored 70 points last week. The Longhorns’ offense scored 10. The Cowboys have the best QB-WR combo in the nation in Brandon Weeden to Justin Blackmon. The Longhorns have eight freshmen and sophomores in the defensive backfield.
AUBURN (+2) over Florida — The Wright Brothers had a better air game than Auburn, but the Gators have been beaten up so badly the last two weeks it’s hard to imagine them winning straight up anywhere. Florida QB Jeff Brantley (knee) is out again.
MARYLAND (+8½) over Clemson — Anyone who has followed Clemson football over the years knows the Tigers will turn in one inexplicably bad performance out of the blue. This is the one.
OREGON (-15½) over Arizona State — Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest home fields in the nation, and the Ducks take full advantage of it. You have to go back to the last game of the 2009 season to find a game in which they scored fewer than 40 points at home. But LaMichael James, the nation’s leader rusher, won’t play (dislocated elbow).
BEST BETS: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
LAST WEEK: 7-8 overall; 3-0 in best bets
SEASON: 45-43-2 overall; 12-6 in best bets